Michigan is Penn State’s last gasp at being elite in this era of college football. Here’s why

There has been plenty of consternation about Penn State’s status in the college football world this season. The team’s loss to Ohio State put it on the back burner once again in the College Football Playoff picture and left the program without a clear path to taking the next step and overtaking the Buckeyes.

But this weekend, the Nittany Lions will have a chance to prove that the gap may not be closed, but that it is closer than ever. And while the playoff is expanding to 12 next season, lowering the barrier to entry, Penn State can still prove it can be a contender rather than a participant.

To do that, it has to overtake Michigan Saturday afternoon.

Why games like this can change more than a record

The refrains may sound similar to those from the matchup with Ohio State — that’s because they are. These have been the games the Nittany Lions have struggled to win in James Franklin’s tenure.

This matters, though, because he and this program have been trying to make the jump from great to elite for five years now and have failed to do so. To be clear, Penn State football is one of the great programs in the sport. Franklin consistently gets it to New Year’s Six bowls, winning against good teams and frequently getting to 10 wins in a season. That is an accomplishment and not something to scoff at.

But once that bar is cleared the expectations get raised. And the level of scrutiny increases for every misstep along the way. Yes, beating 10 opponents and only losing to Michigan and Ohio State is still a positive. Yet it’s also fair for fans to expect more now that Franklin has led the program to this level.

As the head coach has said before, it’s not about judging off one thing or the other.

“I think it’s more than fair to judge me and my staff for all of it; right?,” Franklin said the Tuesday after his latest loss at the hands of Ohio State. “I mean, that’s what it’s about. The good, the bad, the consistency, the lack of success in that game, all of it. That’s totally fair to be judged by all of those things. I also think it’s important to judge the entire body of work, all of it, which I don’t need to get into right now because I don’t want it to come off the wrong way. Yeah, I think it’s totally fair to be judged based on all those things, based on all those things, the whole body of work, the good and the bad.”

Just as it was fair to judge him off the loss to OSU and the wins over Indiana and Maryland, it will be fair to do the same after Saturday’s result, whatever it may be. And while the successes over the Hoosiers and Terps are helpful, they’ll never carry the same weight in the formula as the Buckeyes and Wolverines. That’s true in the court of public opinion and with the College Football Playoff selection committee.

Because Franklin’s legacy and how he’s viewed matter, but nothing matters as much as the impact a win would have on this season.

Why making the 2023 playoff matters

One of the impacts of the expanded playoff is that there will undoubtedly be multiple teams in the field each year that are not elite. There will be, year after year, teams that find their way in and try to put together a run to win the national championship.

But there will also be another group of teams. There will be Georgias and Ohio States of the world who make it every year and aren’t just trying to go on a run to win — they’re expected to win. Playoff expansion will help with getting more programs involved, but there’s still a decent chance that the national champions most years are familiar programs that have been atop the college football world.

That’s why proving it can be in the top group now is important for Penn State. No, it will not guarantee yearly top four finishes in the rankings or in the actual playoff — but it will prove that the program is capable of being in that group as it continues building into the future.

The impact of that could be felt as early as the 2024 season. it’s no secret that the program will need to hit the transfer portal to fill some notable needs — especially at wide receiver at potentially at cornerback — and having a higher visibility will only help. Yes, helping players profit off their name, image and likeness (NIL) will always be a major factor in the transfer portal, but with all else equal having a few tiebreakers — like program success — could be helpful.

All of that comes into play with reaching the playoff, but at the end of the day nothing matters more than the program actually giving itself a chance to win a national title. For all of the good and great years during the James Franklin Era, they’ve never truly had a shot at winning a national championship.

Right or wrong, that is the standard and the one Franklin will continue to be judged by.