Michigan poll: Biden trails Trump 46%-41% one year from 2024 presidential election

A year out from the 2024 presidential election, a new poll of likely Michigan voters made public Saturday showed former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden in the state, 46%-41%.

The poll, done by EPIC-MRA of Lansing, comes on the heels of some other recent polls showing Trump with an edge or tied with Biden in Michigan and other key swing states. A New York Times/Siena College poll released early this month showed Trump leading Biden head-to-head in Michigan 48%-43%.

Of the key bloc of industrial swing states that includes Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Michigan has tended to be the most Democratic-leaning, suggesting that if Biden, a Democrat, is trailing Trump, a Republican, in what is expected to be a rematch next year, Biden could be in peril of losing reelection.

"Democrats ought to be aware there is a growing possibility that Donald Trump may become president again," said EPIC-MRA pollster Bernie Porn, noting the erosion in support for Biden since the firm's last poll in August, when Biden held a slim 46%-45% lead over Trump.

"I think it’s his (Biden's) age and comparative perceptions of him versus Trump," Porn said. "People are dismissing the Bidenomics approach — they're not impressed with that messaging ... It could well be very difficult for Biden to do the things needed to recover."

The poll comes at a time when there have been questions as to whether Biden, who turns 81 this month, should run again, though Democrats have done well in recent elections despite the president's poor approval ratings. Trump is 77 years old.

It also comes after months of high inflation which, while it appears to be cooling, has still left prices well above levels of a few years ago, continued political stalemate in Washington and complaints from some Democratic progressives that Biden should be calling on Israel to issue a ceasefire in its war in Gaza following Hamas' brutal surprise attacks on Israeli citizens on Oct. 7.

While Biden has tried to draw attention to the nation's low unemployment rate and strong job market, as well as programs adding billions to new infrastructure across the country, his administration has also been hit with criticism about its handling of the southern border, where it's been faced with huge numbers of undocumented migrants crossing into the U.S.

For the poll, EPIC-MRA used live interviewers to survey 600 randomly selected likely voters between last Friday and this past Thursday, 70% of whom were contacted by cell phone. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The Free Press uses EPIC-MRA for polling but did not contract for this poll.

The poll found in a head-to-head matchup between Biden and Trump, 13% were undecided. It also found Biden, who beat Trump in Michigan 51%-48% in 2020, trailing former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup in the state by an even greater margin, 47%-36% with 17% undecided, despite the fact that 37% of those surveyed didn't know who she was.

Haley's strength was underpinned by women who said they would support her in a race against Biden: Where Biden led Trump among women slightly, 43%-42% with 15% undecided, Haley led the president among women voters 46%-36% with 19% undecided. Men favored the Republican in either case, supporting Trump 50%-39% with 12% undecided and supporting Haley 48%-37% with 15% undecided.

More than half of those polled, 56%, said they had an unfavorable view of Biden, compared to just 37% with a favorable view. Fifty-five percent had an unfavorable view of Trump compared to 39% who had a favorable view. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, on the other hand, got favorable marks from 53% of those polled compared to 42% unfavorable.

Whitmer, in her second term, has widely been mentioned as a possible Democratic presidential contender if Biden were to step down, though the president had consistently maintained he is running for a second term. Whitmer told the Free Press last November she has no plans to run for president and remains a strong supporter of Biden's.

Sixty-nine percent of those polled had a negative view of Biden's performance as president, compared to 30% with a positive view.

Biden struggling among some key voter blocs

The poll indicated that Biden isn't seeing the support he might expect from some key voting blocs.

For instance, abortion rights has been considered a key issue for Democrats since the U.S. Supreme Court last year overturned Roe vs. Wade, the landmark decision that guaranteed a person's right to undergo the procedure. That led to efforts in the states, including the approval of Proposal 3 in Michigan last year to guarantee access to abortions under the state constitution, that have widely been seen as aiding Democrats.

But the poll showed 28% of voters identifying as "pro-choice" supporting Trump, who ran as a staunch opponent of abortion rights and nominated three of the Supreme Court justices who overturned the Roe decision, compared to 58% for Biden.

In 2020, exit polls also showed 92% of Black voters in Michigan supported Biden compared to 7% for Trump. But the new poll indicated a huge drop in that support, with just 62% of Black respondents backing Biden, compared to 17% for Trump and 21% undecided. White voters back Trump 47%-41% with 12% undecided.

And in another example, Trump led Biden by a jaw-dropping 45%-18% among independent voters not identifying as being aligned with either of the major political parties. Thirty-eight percent were undecided. And among the relatively small number of union members contacted for the survey, 47% supported Trump, compared to 40% for Biden and 13% undecided, despite the fact that Biden this fall became the first president to walk a picket line as the UAW struck the Detroit Three automakers for better wages and benefits.

As with all subgroups that do not include the entire 600 voters surveyed, the margin of error would increase, in many cases significantly. But the data is an indicator of where support — or lack of it — may be among different groups.

Biden trailed Trump among all age groups except one, those voters over age 65, with whom he led 46%-37% with 17% undecided. Trump, on the other hand, led 48%-35% among voters 18-34, 46%-39% among voters 35-49 and by a huge margin, 54%-34%, among voters 50-64.

Biden retained a marked edge among college-educated voters, 49%-37% with 13% undecided. But that's well below the 17-point margin he had with those voters in the 2020 election. Trump led among the larger cohort of voters without a college education 52%-35% with 13% undecided. In 2020, Trump only had a five-point edge with those voters.

A Trump conviction could change some voters' minds

With Trump facing various legal charges brought against him, including criminal counts, the pollster also asked likely voters how a conviction, if one were handed down against him, could influence their vote.

Forty-four percent said a conviction would make them less likely to support Trump; 12% said it would make them more likely to support him. Forty-one percent said it would have no influence at all and 3% were undecided.

Porn said that with that change, the race would be a virtual tie, with Biden leading 41%-40% and 19% undecided. Trump has maintained that all of the charges are attempts by Democratic politicians and the Biden administration to hurt his chances of reelection.

The charges against Trump include two Justice Department investigations involving mishandling of confidential documents after leaving the White House and whether he violated federal law in his attempts to overturn the 2020 election for Biden, through making baseless claims of fraud in Michigan and in other states, and in instigating a mob of supporters who attacked the Capitol as Congress met on Jan. 6, 2021, to certify the election.

He also faces other cases in New York and Georgia.

Asked if Trump should serve jail time if convicted, 57% of those surveyed said yes to 35% who said no. Four percent said it would depend on the circumstances and 4% were undecided.

Slotkin has slim lead over top GOP candidates for open Senate seat

The poll also indicated that in the race to replace outgoing U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., the presumed Democratic frontrunner — U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Lansing — has a lead over two of the top Republican candidates.

But it's such a small lead — well within the margin of error — that it could indicate trouble for Democrats in retaining the seat.

Slotkin leads former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, 39%-37%, with 24% undecided. And she leads former Detroit Police Chief James Craig 40%-38%, with 22% undecided. The poll did not include any of the other candidates in what is becoming a crowded field; former U.S. Rep. Peter Meijer joined the Republican race for Senate earlier this month.

Such large numbers of undecided voters make it clear that all of the candidates still have a lot of ground to make up in introducing themselves to voters.

There is also reason to believe, Porn said, that Biden's poor numbers could be dragging down support for Slotkin.

"It’s a troubling sign — it should be — for Democrats," he said.

Contact Todd Spangler: tspangler@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter@tsspangler.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan poll: Biden trails Trump in 2024 election