Michigan State basketball Big Ten tournament tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction for MSU vs. Ohio State
• When: Approximately 2:30 p.m. (ET) Friday
• What: No. 4-seed Michigan State vs. No. 13-seed Ohio State
• Where: United Center, Chicago
• TV/Radio: Big Ten Network/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; Sirius/XM Ch. 84
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 19-11 overall, finished 11-8 in the Big Ten and unranked in the major polls. The Spartans are ranked No. 27 by Kenpom and are No. 31 in the NET rankings. Ohio State is 15-18 overall, finished 5-15 in the Big Ten and unranked in the polls. The Buckeyes entered Thursday ranked No. 55 by Kenpom and No. 57 in the NET rankings.
• Betting line: MSU -3.5
• Kenpom projected score: MSU 72, Ohio State 69
• Coaches: MSU — Tom Izzo is 685-278 in his 28th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Ohio State — Chris Holtmann is 236-159 in his 12th season as a head coach, including 122-74 in six seasons with the Buckeyes.
• Series: MSU leads 75-59 all-time. The Spartans won both meetings during the regular season, including last Saturday in East Lansing.
Lineups
MSU
C (22) Mady Sissoko (6-9) 5.0
PF (10) Joey Hauser (6-9) 14.2
G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 9.6
G (2) Tyson Walker (6-1) 14.8
PG (11) AJ Hoggard (6-4) 12.6
Ohio State
C (34) Felix Okpara (6-11) 3.8
F (14) Justice Sueing (6-7) 12.2
F (10) Brice Sensabaugh (6-6) 16.3
G (1) Roddy Gayle Jr. (6-4) 3.7
G (2) Bruce Thornton (6-2) 10.1
• MSU update: The Spartans enter the postseason on a serious offensive uptick, having scored 80 points in four straight games after not reaching the 80-point mark in any of their first 15 Big Ten games and only three times scoring 70 points or more. A lot of that’s been fueled by hot shooting, with MSU making 49 of 85 3-point attempts (58%) during its last four games. The Spartans earned the double-bye despite not getting to make up their game with Minnesota and pick up a likely 12th league win. Instead, they were helped by a series of events during the last week that make them a top four seed against improbable odds. If they beat Ohio State in Friday’s quarterfinals, they’ll face the winner of No. 9 seed Rutgers (which beat Michigan on Thursday) and No. 1 Purdue in Saturday’s semifinals.
MORE: Couch: Steven Izzo makes his mark on MSU basketball as he and his dad make up for lost time
• Ohio State update: The 13-seed Buckeyes are either evidence that it helps to be desperate or that having nothing to lose makes it easier to play loose. Because they’ve won two straight Big Ten tournament games and looked good doing it, beating No. 12-seed Wisconsin (65-57) on Wednesday and No. 5-seed Iowa (73-69) on Thursday. This after a miserable Big Ten regular season, though Ohio State did finish the regular season winning two of three games, including double-digit home wins over Illinois and Maryland and a competitive road loss last Saturday in East Lansing. This recent surge is also proof of how badly Ohio State underachieved and how dysfunctional the Buckeyes were for most of the season. But having won four of five games now — all without injured big man Zed Key, no less — the Buckeyes are playing like a new team, a team that wants to be playing. Coach Chris Holtmann continues to tinker with the rotation, moving freshman star Brice Sensabaugh back in the starting lineup.
• Inside the matchup: MSU has won two very different types of games against the Buckeyes — 62-41 with suffocating defense on Feb. 12 in Columbus in what might have been a low point for Ohio State, and 84-78 on Saturday, a shootout of shorts, against an Ohio State team that looked to be in a much better headspace. MSU blitzed Ohio State by making 12 of 20 3s, but the Buckeyes returned the favor, hitting 11 of 25 from long range. And while the Spartans’ defensive numbers weren’t great, Ohio State hit some difficult shots by guys who don’t normally make those shots. MSU has more players who can hurt you offensively than Ohio State does. But the Buckeyes are playing hard right now and are more connected than they’ve been most of the way. And they have enough individual talent and athleticism to make beating them a chore.
MORE: Couch: Michigan State's offense is different when Jaden Akins is playing like this
• Prediction: I like the matchup for the Spartans — we've seen it twice before, with each team different in the first meeting than they were in the second. I also like the team that isn’t playing for a third game in three days. The second day it sometimes helps to be the team that played the day before. Rarely is that the case on Day 3.
• Make it: MSU 75, Ohio State 70
— Graham Couch
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball at Big Ten tournament: Preview, prediction, TV, betting
