Michigan State basketball at Michigan tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction
• What: Michigan State at Michigan
• When: 8 p.m. Saturday
• Where: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor
• TV/Radio: FOX/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; Sirius/XM Ch. 382 (MSU broadcast), 195 (Michigan broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 16-9 overall, 8-6 in the Big Ten and unranked. Michigan is 14-12 overall, 8-7 in the Big Ten and unranked.
• Projected betting line: Michigan -2
• Kenpom projected score: Michigan 68, MSU 67
• Coaches: MSU — Tom Izzo is 682-276 in his 28th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Michigan — Juwan Howard is 75-44 in his fourth season as a head coach, all with the Wolverines.
• Series: Michigan leads 103-88 all-time. MSU won 59-53 on Jan. 7 at Breslin Center.
Lineups
MSU
C (22) Mady Sissoko (6-9) 5.4
PF (10) Joey Hauser (6-9) 13.7
G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 8.8
G (2) Tyson Walker (6-1) 13.8
PG (11) AJ Hoggard (6-4) 12.1
Michigan
C (1) Hunter Dickinson (7-1) 17.7
F (5) Terrance Williams II (6-7) 6.8
G (13) Jett Howard (6-8) 14.6
G (2) Kobe Bufkin (6-4) 12.7
G (0) Dug McDaniel (5-11) 7.1
• MSU update: The Spartans return to the court for the first time since a gunman opened fire on campus Monday night, killing three students and leaving five others in critical condition. That’s a heavy line to begin a basketball team update, but that’s the backdrop for this game, being played 60 miles down the road in Ann Arbor. It’s impossible to know how, or if, this difficult week will impact the Spartans once the game begins. It’ll surely alter the vibe at Crisler Center, taking some the animosity out of the air. It might even be a welcoming atmosphere for a while, given what Michigan has planned. MSU has been playing pretty good basketball of late, especially on the defensive end. The Spartans are the Big Ten’s most efficient defense in conference play, per Kenpom.com. They’re also tops in effective field goal percentage defense and 3-point defense, holding opponents to 26.7% shooting beyond the arc. MSU’s 62-41 win at Ohio State last Sunday tied the Spartans’ largest margin of victory this season, matching the home win over Buffalo in late December.
MSU has five or six regular-season games remaining, depending on whether Wednesday’s postponed home game against Minnesota is made up. Nothing has been firmly decided yet.
FROM TUESDAY: Couch: Shooting on MSU's campus stole lives and peace of mind
• Michigan update: The Wolverines’ season has reached a point where there really are no more mulligans. Given their resume and the number of missed opportunities, they probably have to win at least four more games to get on the NCAA tournament bubble. The schedule helps, though it isn’t easy. But at least there are chances to change their profile, with games against MSU, at Rutgers, home against Wisconsin, at Illinois and at Indiana to close the regular season. There are also a lot of losable games in there. Michigan is coming off back-to-back losses to Indiana and at Wisconsin, which were the Wolverines’ ninth and 10th losses this season by six points or less or in overtime. Their metrics aren’t that bad, they just don’t finish games well, a product of having a backcourt made up of two freshmen and a sophomore.
• Inside the matchup: This is going to be an odd atmosphere, with a lot of media attention, pregame tributes and rivalry hate put on hold. But once the game gets going, I think it’ll feel relatively normal, even if more cordial than usual. From a basketball perspective, MSU’s advantage is how seasoned its backcourt is relative to the Wolverines. That played out in the first matchup down the stretch.
Michigan shot horribly that day from long range, making just 3 of 20 3-point attempts, preventing the Wolverines from making the Spartans pay for their intermittent double-teams of center Hunter Dickinson. I would think MSU will use a similar approach, mixing up their defense on Dickinson, so he’s never really sure if a double-team or dig-down is coming. He had a solid statistical day last time out against the Spartans, but didn’t really hurt them.
Michigan starting forward Terrence Williams missed the last game with a bruised knee. If he’s back, it almost helps MSU, because he’s an obvious player to leave to help defensively on Dickinson. Sophomore Kobe Bufkin was often the best Michigan player on the floor in the first meeting. He’s really come into his own this Big Ten season. Freshman guards Jett Howard and Dug McDaniel struggled in East Lansing. I expect they’ll be better at home, but MSU’s defense was also fantastic at Ohio State on Sunday. I expect it’ll travel well again.
FROM MONDAY: Couch: Joey Hauser is loving life and letting it fly. 'This is what I envisioned when I came back.'
• Prediction: This is going to be an interesting night. And I think a close game. I already mentioned the Wolverines' 10 close defeats this season. Well, six of the Spartans’ last 11 games — beginning with the first meeting against Michigan — have been decided by six points or less. This is likely to come down to which team has better possessions in the final few minutes. More often this season, though not always, that’s been MSU.
• Make it: MSU 65, Michigan 62
— Graham Couch
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball at Michigan: Prediction, preview, TV info, betting line
