Michigan State basketball vs. Indiana tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction
• What: Michigan State vs. Indiana
• When: 9 p.m. Tuesday
• Where: Breslin Center
• TV/Radio: ESPN/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; Sirius/XM Ch. 388 (MSU broadcast), 196 (Indiana broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 16-10 overall, 8-7 in the Big Ten and unranked. Indiana is 19-8 overall, 10-6 in the Big Ten and ranked 17th in both the AP and Coaches poll.
• Betting line: MSU -2
• Kenpom projected score: MSU 69, Indiana 68
• Coaches: MSU — Tom Izzo is 682-277 in his 28th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Indiana — Mike Woodson is 40-22 in his second season as a collegiate head coach, both with the Hoosiers.
• Series: Indiana leads 72-58 all-time. The Hoosiers won the first meeting this year, 82-69 on Jan. 22 in Bloomington.
Lineups
MSU
C (22) Mady Sissoko (6-9) 5.4
PF (10) Joey Hauser (6-9) 13.9
G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 8.8
G (2) Tyson Walker (6-1) 13.7
PG (11) AJ Hoggard (6-4) 11.8
Indiana
C (25) Race Thompson (6-8) 7.9
F (23) Trayce Jackson-Davis (6-9) 20.5
F (12) Miller Kopp (6-7) 8.0
G (32) Trey Galloway (6-4) 6.9
G (1) Jalen Hood-Schifino (6-6) 12.6
• MSU update: It’s likely to be an emotional scene at Breslin Center as the Spartans take the court at home for the first time since last Monday’s shooting on campus. From a basketball perspective, this is also a big night for MSU, which probably needs two more wins anywhere to secure an NCAA tournament bid and could use what would be a firm Quad 1 win in the NET rankings to bolster its NCAA tournament seeding prospects and chances of a top-four seed and double-bye in the Big Ten tournament. At 8-7 in the Big Ten, MSU likely needs a win over Indiana on Tuesday and for the Minnesota game to be made up — possibly Thursday, March 2, if it happens — to have a realistic shot at climbing into the top four. It’s hard to imagine anything less than a 12-8 Big Ten record being enough.
• Indiana update: The Hoosiers are 9-2 in their last 11 games, all in Big Ten play, a stretch that includes the first meeting with MSU. Indiana held off a short-handed Illinois team at home on Saturday, 71-68, after losing at Northwestern by two points last week. No shame in that. Everyone is losing to Northwestern these days. After spending the first two months appearing to be headed for another disappointing season, the Hoosiers have arguably been the Big Ten’s best team over the past month. Besides the stellar play of Trayce Jackson-Davis, whose 22.1 points in league games is just a hair behind leader Zach Edey, Indiana has been winning because of its defense. In Big Ten play, the Hoosiers are No. 2 in effective field-goal percentage defense, per Kenpom, No. 2 in 3-point defense (behind MSU), No. 3 in 2-point defense and No. 2 in block rate.
MORE: Couch: Shooting on MSU's campus stole lives and peace of mind
• Inside the matchup: Last time the Spartans played the Hoosiers, they tried to pick their poison against big man Trayce Jackson-Davis and Indiana’s shooters, and wound up drinking from both cups so to speak, with Tamar Bates and Trey Galloway combining to hit 8-of-9 3-pointers, while Jackson-Davis put up 31 points. Not a great day for MSU. Bates, who hit five 3s that afternoon, has only hit three total in the eight games since. So the Spartans shouldn’t overreact. A lot of that was just a feel-good home game for the Hoosiers. It happens. That said, my sense from Tom Izzo on Monday is that he’s OK with Jackson-Davis getting his points — knowing that, given Jackson-Davis’ abilities, it’s probably going to happen anyway — as long as MSU locks on to the Hoosiers’ shooters.
The Spartans have been fantastic at guarding the 3-point line, for the most part, in recent weeks. Four of MSU’s last seven opponents have shot under 21% from beyond the arc and the Spartans are the Big Ten’s best 3-point shooting defense. I think they’re a better defense than they were heading into the first meeting. You’re likely to see a varied approach against Jackson-Davis, because just leaving him one-on-one isn’t an option. It does help MSU, however, that Malik Hall is available this time around. My guess is you’ll see a fair bit of Hall on Jackson-Davis. Hall played his best game since returning from injury on Saturday at Michigan. Indiana is also more whole than the last time these teams met, with big man Race Thompson healthy and playing. He’s a glue guy and makes the Hoosiers a better defensive and rebounding team.
MORE: Couch: Michigan State was too good in loss at Michigan to take a mulligan
• Prediction: Breslin Center is going to be hopping Tuesday night. If MSU plays well, we might hear decibel levels we haven’t in a while. The Hoosiers are a tough matchup, but the Spartans’ only loss at home since the beginning of January was by a single point to Purdue. We’re likely to see a spirited performance in this one.
• Make it: MSU 66, Indiana 61
— Graham Couch
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball vs. Indiana: Prediction, preview, TV info, betting line
