Michigan State basketball vs. Kansas State NCAA tournament tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction
• When: 6:30 p.m. Thursday
• What: No. 7-seed Michigan State vs. No. 3-seed Kansas State, NCAA tournament East Region semifinal (Sweet 16 round)
• Where: Madison Square Garden, New York
• TV/Radio: TBS/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; Sirius/XM Ch. 201
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 21-12 overall and finished 11-8 in the Big Ten regular season. Kansas State is 25-9 and finished 11-7 in the Big 12 regular season.
• Betting line: MSU -2
• Kenpom projected score: Kansas State 70, MSU 69
• Coaches: MSU — Tom Izzo is 687-279 in his 28th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Kansas State — Jerome Tang is 25-9 in his first season as a head coach
• Series: MSU leads 5-2 all-time, most recently playing in December of 1995 and 1996, Tom Izzo's first two seasons, with MSU winning both at home and in Manhattan, Kansas.
Lineups
MSU
C (22) Mady Sissoko (6-9) 5.1
PF (10) Joey Hauser (6-9) 14.3
G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 9.6
G (2) Tyson Walker (6-1) 14.3
PG (11) AJ Hoggard (6-4) 12.5
Kansas State
C (35) Nae'Qwan Tomlin (6-10) 10.3
F (11) Kayontae Johnson (6-6) 17.5
G (13) Desi Sills (6-2) 8.8
G (5) Cam Carter (6-3) 6.4
G (1) Markquis Nowell (5-8) 17.1
• MSU update: The Spartans are in the Sweet 16 for the 15th time under Tom Izzo and are making their first trip since their 2019 Final Four run. MSU is 10-4 in those Sweet 16 games. The Spartans got here by beating 10-seed USC and 2-seed Marquette last weekend in Columbus. MSU won those games despite making just 7 of 30 3-point attempts, after hitting 49 of 85 3-point tries in the last four games of the regular season. The Spartans won those games, in part, by turning the ball over seven fewer times in total than their first two NCAA tournament opponents and out-rebounding both of them, albeit slightly, 36-34 and 36-31. They also held USC and Marquette to 44.7% and 36%, respectively, on 2-point field goals, while themselves making 52.5% and 57.9%. This is a homecoming for MSU guard Tyson Walker, who played at Christ the King High School in Queens.
MORE: Couch: Sweet 16 run has invigorated Michigan State's team, its fans and Izzo
• Kansas State update: The third-seeded Wildcats reached the East Regional semifinals by beating 14-seed Montana State and 6-seed Kentucky last weekend in Greensboro, North Carolina. Kansas State finished third in the Big 12 in the regular season. The Wildcats have wins at Texas, at Baylor, and home against Kansas and TCU as part of an impressive resume. They have two common opponents with MSU, beating Nebraska, 71-56, on a neutral court in December and Kentucky, 75-69, last Sunday.
Their most impressive numbers are on the defensive side of the ball. They’re the 17th-most efficient defense in college basketball, per Kenpom, including in the top 15 in 3-point defense, holding opponents to under 30% beyond the arc. Kansas State is led by two All-Americans, point guard Markquis Nowell and forward Keyontae Johnson. Both are transfers, Nowell from Arkansas-Little Rock and Johnson, from Florida, where he collapsed on the court in December of 2020.
• Inside the matchup: The Spartans face yet another team that will challenge them at the rim and, defensively, get into their shooters, but again won’t beat them up in the post and shouldn’t overwhelm them on the glass. Kansas State has an incredible 5-foot-8 guard in Nowell, who can score at multiple levels and is an outstanding passer, averaging 7.8 assists. You might see all three of MSU’s starting guards on him at times, though Jaden Akins will likely also spend time guarding Johnson, Kansas State’s other star. Johnson, who’s 6-6 and 230 pounds, can also score inside and out and is shooting better than 40% on 3-point tries. Akins and Malik Hall will be on him primarily, though we’ve also seen Hoggard deal with bigger guys at times this season.
Kansas State is more of an isolation, rim-running offense than MSU has faced in this tournament. MSU’s in-the-gaps, help-defense is built to stop a team like this. Easier said than done. These Wildcats have two special players, a point guard who can create for himself or others and they seem to have an edge to them that I don’t think either of MSU’s first two NCAA tournament opponents did.
• Prediction: Kansas State is a mentally tough and hard-nosed athletic team, led by its own New York City point guard in Nowell. As its first-year head coach, Jerome Tang, said Sunday after beating Kentucky: “We had more dudes than they did today, and that’s what that was.” I think MSU has the dudes to go toe-to-toe with the Wildcats. If the Spartans can hit a few more 3s than they did last week, they’ve got a great shot to keep playing.
• Make it: MSU 68, Kansas State 66
RELATED: Couch: Steven Izzo makes his mark on MSU basketball as he and his dad make up for lost time
— Graham Couch
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball vs. Kansas State: Prediction, preview, TV, betting line
