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Michigan State basketball vs. Marquette NCAA tournament tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction

graham couch, lansing state journal
·4 min read
11
Marquette guard Tyler Kolek high-fives teammate Kam Jones after Jones hit a 3-pointer against Vermont on Friday. Jones scored 18 straight points for the Golden Eagles in the second half. Kolek was the Big East player of the year.
Marquette guard Tyler Kolek high-fives teammate Kam Jones after Jones hit a 3-pointer against Vermont on Friday. Jones scored 18 straight points for the Golden Eagles in the second half. Kolek was the Big East player of the year.

• When: 5:15 p.m. Sunday

• What: No. 7-seed Michigan State vs. No. 2-seed Marquette, NCAA tournament East Region, second round

• Where: Nationwide Arena, Columbus, Ohio

• TV/Radio: CBS/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; Sirius/XM Ch. 201

• Records/Rankings: MSU is 20-12 overall and finished 11-8 in the Big Ten regular season. Marquette is 29-6 overall and finished 17-3 in the Big East regular season.

• Betting line: Marquette -2.5

• Kenpom projected score: Marquette 73, MSU 70

• Coaches: MSU — Tom Izzo is 686-279 in his 28th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Marquette — Shaka Smart is 320-161 in his 14th season as a head coach, including 48-19 in his second year with the Golden Eagles.

• Series: MSU leads 32-23 all-time, though the two programs have only met twice since 1959 — a 79-68 MSU win in November of 2014 and a 61-49 Spartans win in the 2007 NCAA tournament.

Lineups

MSU

C (22) Mady Sissoko (6-9) 5.0

PF (10) Joey Hauser (6-9) 14.3

G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 9.7

G (2) Tyson Walker (6-1) 14.5

PG (11) AJ Hoggard (6-4) 12.5

Marquette

C (13) Oso Ighodaro (6-9) 11.5

F (12) Oliver-Maxence Prosper (6-8) 12.4

G (4) Steve Mitchell (6-2) 7.1

G (1) Kam Jones (6-4) 15.1

G (11) Tyler Kolek (6-3) 13.1

• MSU update: The Spartans are hoping to reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2019, having lost on the first weekend or in their first game the last two seasons, after the 2020 NCAA tournament was canceled. For Joey Hauser, this game against Marquette is a matchup against his former program. He played his freshman season there in 2018-19, before transferring to Michigan State — though he pointed out Saturday that none of the coaches or players that were at Marquette then remain. This is the 19th time in 25 straight NCAA tournaments under Tom Izzo that the Spartans have reached at least the Round of 32. They’re 14-4 in Round-of-32 games in the Izzo era.

MORE: Couch: MSU showed its teeth against USC. Now we'll find out just how ferocious those teeth are.

• Marquette update: The Golden Eagles are coming off a 78-61 win over 15th-seed Vermont on Friday, during which Kam Jones scored 18 straight points in the second half. It was their 10th straight win, dating back to early February. Jones and backcourt mate Tyler Kolek headline this team. Kolek, who averages 7.6 assists per game, was the Big East player of the year. Forward David Joplin, who averages 9.4 points per game, was the Big East sixth man of the year. Marquette has a number of quality wins this season — twice over UConn, Xavier and Creighton and one early in the season against Baylor. The Golden Eagles are college basketball’s sixth-most efficient offense, per Kenpom, including No. 3 in 2-point field goal percentage (58.6%).

• Inside the matchup: As Tom Izzo put it, Marquette “brings more ball screens than maybe we faced all year. It seems they're coming from right to left, they're all over the place and they do it very well.” In other words, even more so than against USC, MSU’s ball-screen defense will determine a ton about how it fares. Marquette’s offensive star, Kam Jones, is stronger physically than USC’s Boogie Ellis, who the Spartans shut down. Marquette is also more connected on both ends. The Golden Eagles aren’t a great rebounding team, but they do have a more skilled big man than the Trojans in Iso Ighordaro, who’s a good passer and decent finisher around the basket. Marquette forces opponents into turnovers on 22.6% of their possessions, which is among the top 20 in the country. They press off made baskets about 20% of the time and get into ball-handlers defensively in the half-court. Whether MSU’s guards take care of the ball will also go a long ways toward determining this game. It’s a matchup of two stellar backcourts. And a chance for MSU’s trio of A.J. Hoggard, Tyson Walker and Jaden Akins to get some national respect.

• Prediction: MSU is capable of beating Marquette. The Spartans have the guards, the shooters and the experience to do it, even if they haven’t faced a team quite like this in terms of style of play. But with this MSU team and this program, we’ve reached the point of seeing is believing before picking the Spartans to reach the second weekend.

• Make it: Marquette, 71, MSU 67

RELATED: Couch: Steven Izzo makes his mark on MSU basketball as he and his dad make up for lost time

— Graham Couch

This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball vs. Marquette: Prediction, preview, TV, betting line