Michigan State basketball vs. Michigan tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction
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• What: MSU vs. Michigan
• When: 12:30 p.m. Saturday
• Where: Breslin Center, East Lansing
• COVID-19 vaccination / testing policy for fans: To enter, fans ages 12 and older must have proof of vaccination for COVID-19 (either a vaccine card or digital photo of it) or have proof of a negative COVID test within 72 hours. Fans 18-up should also be prepared to show their ID. Fans 17-under with adult supervision will not be required to show an ID. The mask requirement remains in effect. Also, concessions will be open, but limited to beverages.
• TV/Radio: CBS/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; Sirius/XM Ch. 195 (MSU broadcast), Ch. 384 (U-M broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 15-4 overall and 6-2 in the Big Ten, ranked No. 10 in both the Associated Press poll and the USA Today Coaches poll. Michigan is 10-7 overall, 4-3 in the Big Ten and unranked.
• Coaches: MSU — Tom Izzo is 658-258 in his 27th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Michigan — Juwan Howard is 52-24 in his third season as a head coach, all with the Wolverines.
• Series: Michigan leads 102-86 all-time. The two programs have split their last eight meetings.
• Betting line: MSU -3
Lineups
MSU
C (30) Marcus Bingham Jr. (7-0) 9.8
PF (10) Joey Hauser (6-9) 6.8
SF (44) Gabe Brown (6-8) 13.4
SG (5) Max Christie (6-6) 10.1
PG (2) Tyson Walker (6-0) 7.2
Michigan
C (1) Hunter Dickinson (7-1) 16.5
PF (14) Moussa Diabate (6-11) 9.1
SF (22) Caleb Houstan (6-8) 10.7
SG (55) Eli Brooks (6-1) 11.5
PG (12) DeVonte' Jones (6-1) 8.8
• MSU update: The Spartans are coming off a stretch that revealed just how capable they are and also how vulnerable they can be — losing at home to Northwestern, then winning emphatically at Wisconsin, before a rough performance in a loss at Illinois on Tuesday night. MSU leading scorer Gabe Brown is mired in a bit of a shooting funk, hitting just 4-of-18 3-pointers over his last four games, while also taking 10 or fewer shots in each of those games. The lone bright spot in the Spartans’ loss at Illinois was center Marcus Bingham Jr., who said he finally felt like he had his wind back after a bout with COVID over the holidays. He tallied 13 points, six rebounds and four blocks in 18 minutes, and MSU was plus-19 on the scoreboard with Bingham in the game.
• Michigan update: The Wolverines are in a much better place than they were when these two teams were first scheduled to meet — on Jan. 8 in Ann Arbor. That game was postponed due to a COVID outbreak within the Wolverines’ program. A makeup date is yet to be finalized, but March 1 is the likely spot if it happens. Since returning to the court, Michigan is 3-1, with three straight wins — against Maryland, at Indiana and at home against Northwestern on Wednesday. The Wolverines had some shaky stretches of play against the Wildcats, but their victory against the Hoosiers on the road showed this team's potential. The Wolverines have been on a tear shooting the ball from outside, making 27 of 49 3-point attempts during these three wins, after making just 25 of 88 3-point tries in the five games before it.
• Inside the matchup: Michigan’s basketball team has found its footing since its pause for a COVID-19 outbreak, which is just what MSU fans feared when the Wolverines called off the first game — that by the time these teams actually met, the Wolverines would be a different team. They definitely look more functional and some of that is as simple as making shots. Freshman Caleb Houstan, for example, has made 11 of 16 3-pointers over the past three games after going 2-for-21 from long range in the five games before it. Houstan will either be matched up with Gabe Brown or MSU freshman Max Christie. The Spartans have been terrific most of this season defending the 3-point line, holding opponents to 30% beyond the arc.
There are other intriguing player matchups — beginning with how Bingham fares against U-M big man Hunter Dickinson. Bingham, who is six blocked shots behind Matt Costello for MSU’s career record (146), is hungry to prove he can win his matchup with Dickinson. Bingham made that clear this week. And he’s had some success against other notable centers this season. If Bingham can bother Dickinson, that’ll go a long way toward an MSU win. Dickinson has scored at least 19 points in six of his past nine games. At power forward MSU also faces a challenge, with Malik Hall and Joey Hauser going up against lanky 6-foot-11 freshman Moussa Diabatte. East Lansing’s Brandon Johns will be in the mix there, as well, for the Wolverines.
All of that said, this matchup might come down to point guard play, where MSU has been inconsistent with Tyson Walker and AJ Hoggard and, until recently, the Wolverines struggled mightily with transfer DeVante Jones. MSU has to win this matchup and defend the 3-point line. Do those two things and the Spartans probably win without sweating the final minute. The Wolverines will give up some buckets. They’re a hit-and-miss defensive team, especially inside the 3-point line. And they don’t usually force many turnovers. We’ll see if MSU can take advantage of that.
• Prediction: We’re likely to see Breslin Center really rocking for the first time this season. MSU, to this point, isn’t a team that’s shown it can feed off the crowd and put together knockout runs. I don’t think either team is running away from the other in this game. Pound for for pound, it's a pretty even matchup. If Tyson Walker and AJ Hoggard are solid and MSU defends the 3-point line, at home, I like MSU’s chances. But that’s a big if — that first part, especially. I have no doubt the Spartans will be fired up and play with an edge. But can they also keep their blood pressure stable enough to play a smart game, minimize turnovers and stay out of foul trouble? We’ll see.
Make it: MSU 74, Michigan 68
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball vs. Michigan: Prediction, preview, betting line, TV
