Michigan State basketball vs. Northwestern tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction
• What: Michigan State vs. Northwestern
• When: Noon Saturday
• Where: Breslin Center, East Lansing
• COVID-19 vaccination / testing policy for fans: To enter, fans ages 12 and older must have proof of vaccination for COVID-19 (either a vaccine card or digital photo of it) or have proof of a negative COVID test within 72 hours. Fans 18-up should also be prepared to show their ID. Fans 17-under with adult supervision will not be required to show an ID. The mask requirement remains in effect. Also, concessions will be open, but limited to beverages.
• TV/Radio: Big Ten Network/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; Sirius/XM Ch. 83 (MSU broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 14-2 overall and 5-0 in the Big Ten, ranked No. 10 in the Associated Press poll and No. 9 in the USA Today Coaches poll. Northwestern is 8-6 overall and 1-4 in the Big Ten and unranked.
• Coaches: MSU — Tom Izzo is 657-256 in his 27th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Northwestern — Chris Collins is 126-140 in his ninth season as a head coach, all with the Wildcats.
• Series: MSU leads 94-39 all-time and has won 13 of the past 14 meetings, including the first meeting this season, 73-67 on Jan. 2 in Evanston.
• Projected betting line: MSU -9 (via oddsmaker Trevor Darnell)
Lineups
MSU
C (30) Marcus Bingham Jr. (7-0) 10.2
PF (10) Joey Hauser (6-9) 7.0
SF (44) Gabe Brown (6-8) 14.4
SG (5) Max Christie (6-6) 10.7
PG (2) Tyson Walker (6-0) 6.9
Northwestern
F (22) Pete Nance (6-10) 17.1
F (31) Robbie Beran (6-9) 6.7
G (1) Chase Audige (6-4) 11.4
G (3) Ty Berry (6-3) 8.9
G (00) Boo Buie (6-2) 14.8
• MSU update: The Spartans are coming off, perhaps, their most uninspiring performance since the Champions Classic loss to Kansas in the season opener. And yet it was still their 14th win of the season and, thanks to Joey Hauser’s late bucket, their fifth in five tries in Big Ten play. Max Christie’s shooting is becoming a story. He’s made 23 of 37 shots and 11 of 17 3-pointers over his past four games. He’s not the only MSU player shooting well from distance. Tyson Walker and Malik Hall are each 16-for-28 from beyond the arc this season. The Spartans are close to 40% 3-point shooting as a team and above 41% in five conference games.
MORE: Couch: 3 quick takes on Michigan State's 71-69 escape against Minnesota
• Northwestern update: The Wildcats have lost four straight, beginning with that six-point home defeat to the Spartans on Jan. 2. All of those losses — to MSU, Penn State, at Ohio State and to Maryland — have come by single digits, including heartbreaking losses to the Nittany Lions and, Wednesday, to Maryland in overtime. It’ll be interesting to see if not being able to finish games begins to have a cumulative effect and dings Northwestern’s confidence. The Wildcats’ efficiency numbers are pretty good on both ends of the court. They shoot and defend at a solid rate and don’t turn it over. They just struggle down the stretch of games. They were tied with MSU with less than 6 minutes to play two weeks ago. They had a two-point lead on Penn State with 2:55 remaining and lost. And, Wednesday, led by three with 42 seconds left in overtime and then fell to Maryland in double overtime.
• Inside the matchup: I’m curious to see the mindset of these two teams. For both, it’s about response, but coming from different places. The Spartans got away with one on Wednesday against Minnesota and they know it. It’ll be interesting to see if they have their competitive edge and focus back where it’s so often been this season. For the Wildcats, it’s about bouncing back — again. At some point, the close losses will become deflating. But this is a huge opportunity to get a win that changes the trajectory of their season.
Northwestern has a talented backcourt in Boo Buie and Chase Audige, but the pair went a combined 6-for-27 shooting in the first meeting, including 1-for-11 from 3. Pete Nance wasn’t any better, finishing 3-for-13. And still Northwestern had a shot. That should be a warning to MSU. The Wildcats might have actually won if Audige had better shot discipline. Northwestern knows it can play with MSU. The question is whether the ’Cats are starting doubt if they can win games.
• Prediction: I think we’ll see a dialed-in MSU team in this one. I don’t know what we’ll see from Northwestern. If it’s gritty determination, coupled with better shot selection, this might be a good game. At some point, I think the Spartans will put some distance between themselves and the Wildcats, enough to not need a last-second layup to win.
Make it: MSU 78, Northwestern 68
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball vs. Northwestern: Prediction, preview, betting line, TV
