Michigan State basketball vs. Purdue tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction
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• What: Michigan State vs. Purdue
• When: 2:30 p.m. Monday
• Where: Breslin Center, East Lansing
• TV/Radio: FOX/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; Sirius/XM Ch. 381 (MSU broadcast), 195 (Purdue broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 12-5 overall, 4-2 in the Big Ten and unranked. Purdue is 16-1 overall, 5-1 in the Big Ten and ranked No. 3 in both the Associated Press poll and Coaches poll.
• Betting line: Purdue -4.5
• Kenpom projected score: Purdue 68, MSU 65
• Coaches: MSU — Tom Izzo is 678-272 in his 28th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Purdue — Matt Painter is 425-198 in 19th season as a head coach, including 400-193 in his 18th season with the Boilermakers.
• Series: Purdue leads 73-56 all-time and won two of three meetings last year, in West Lafayette and at the Big Ten tournament. This is the first meeting between the two teams this year.
Lineups
MSU
C (22) Mady Sissoko (6-9) 6.2
PF (10) Joey Hauser (6-9) 13.6
G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 8.2
G (2) Tyson Walker (6-1) 13.9
PG (11) AJ Hoggard (6-4) 12.5
Purdue
C (15) Zach Edey (7-4) 21.3
F (1) Caleb Furst (6-10) 7.2
F (25) Ethan Morton (6-7) 4.1
G (2) Fletcher Loyer (6-4) 13.2
G (3) Braden Smith (6-0) 9.8
• MSU update: The Spartans’ seven-game winning streak was snapped Friday night at Illinois, dropping them a game behind Purdue in the Big Ten standings. The big question entering this Monday holiday afternoon game is the health and availability of senior forward Malik Hall, who appeared to re-injure an ankle he rolled a week earlier against Michigan. MSU is 7-2 in games with Hall this year — 7-0 in indoor games he’s been able to finish. Hall has been coming off the bench since returning from a stress reaction in that same left foot, so this won’t alter the starting lineup either way. But his impact is increasingly clear. Against high-major opponents, MSU is an average of seven points better per 40 minutes when Hall is on the court.
• Purdue update: The Boilermakers have lost just once this season — on Jan. 2 at home by a single point to Rutgers. They had some close calls — at Nebraska and at Ohio State — but Purdue is one of the best stories and teams in college basketball, shown early by an 18-point win over Gonzaga and 19-point win over Duke in November. The Boilermakers are led by 7-foot-4 center Zach Edey, who very well might be the national player the year. Their freshman backcourt, which has been surprisingly solid and efficient, features the younger and taller brother of Foster Loyer, 6-foot-4 Fletcher, who is averaging 13.2 points per game and hitting close to 37% of his 3-point shots. The Boilermakers are the No. 1 team in the Kenpom rankings, with the nation’s most efficient offense, largely because of Edey.
• Inside the matchup: It’s MSU’s turn to figure out how to guard Edey. The Spartans have done it before, with decent success, including a win last year at Breslin Center and a close game in the Big Ten tournament. Purdue is different this year. They play through Edey. And they’re better defensively than a year ago, when Edey was among their defensive weaknesses, if you could catch him in a ball screen. Between Mady Sissoko, Carson Cooper and Jaxon Kohler, the Spartans have 15 fouls to give at center, though you do so at your own peril. Edey is a 75% free-throw shooter. The best approach is probably to double him or dig and double sporadically, so he doesn’t know if it’s coming (like MSU did successfully against Hunter Dickinson), and then count on Purdue missing some 3s. Loyer and Braden Smith, Purdue’s other freshman guard, have been fairly consistent from long range, though. But not as consistent as Edey is from short range.
MSU should have the advantage in the backcourt, even as well as Loyer and Smith have played. And it was against Purdue last March that A.J. Hoggard had a breakout game as a real force at point guard, attacking the lane downhill and making decisions. I’d expect he’ll have a bounce-back game after some of his errors at Illinois. If Hall can’t play for MSU, though, that’s a problem, given his defensive flexibility and acumen — both needed in a game like this.
• Prediction: I can picture MSU beating Purdue more than I could the Spartans winning at Illinois. It’s still a sizable chore, Edey and beyond. If Hall were 100%, I’d be tempted to predict the upset. As good as Edey and this lineup is, I think Hoggard, Tyson Walker and Co. have some advantages, too. With Hall’s availability in doubt …
• Make it: Purdue 65, MSU 63
— Graham Couch
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU vs. Purdue basketball: Prediction, preview, TV info, betting line
