Michigan State basketball vs. Toledo tipoff: Matchup analysis and prediction

Graham Couch, Lansing State Journal
·4 min read
Michigan State is 13-2 and 4-0 in the Big Ten as it heads into this week's two home games against Minnesota (Wednesday) and Northwestern (Saturday).

• What: Michigan State vs. Toledo

• When: 5 p.m. Saturday

• Where: Breslin Center, East Lansing

• TV/Radio: Big Ten Network/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; Sirius/XM Ch. 387

• Records/Rankings: MSU is 6-2 and ranked No. 22 in the latest Associated Press and USA Today Coaches polls. Toledo is 6-1 and unranked.

• Coaches: MSU — Tom Izzo is 649-256 in his 27th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Toledo — Tod Kowalczyk 347-266 in his 20th season as a head coach, including 211-154 in his 12th season with the Rockets.

• Series: MSU leads 5-3 all-time, but these two programs haven't met in 12 seasons and have only played three times in the past 48 years. MSU won the 2009 meeting, but lost the previous meeting, in 2002.

• Vegas line: MSU -14

Lineups

MSU

C (30) Marcus Bingham Jr. (7-0) 10.6

PF (25) Malik Hall (6-8) 9.8

SF (44) Gabe Brown (6-8) 13.0

SG (1) Max Christie (6-6) 8.3

PG (0) Tyson Walker (6-0) 5.1

Toledo

F (32) JT Shumate (6-7) 15.0

F (4) Setric Millner Jr (6-7) 14.9

G (0) Ra'Heim Moss (6-4) 6.9

G (5) Ryan Rollins (6-4) 20.0

G (10) RayJ Dennis (6-2) 11.6

• MSU update: The Spartans are coming off a 73-64 win over Louisville, during which Malik Hall scored at least 15 points for the third time this season and led MSU in scoring for the second time. Hall has also scored three points or less three times — against Kansas, UConn and Baylor — so he’s yet to provide that scoring punch consistently. MSU offensively is a work in progress, still figuring out where it’ll get its points on a given night. The positive identity that's emerging is on the defensive end, where the Spartans rank second nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, per kenpom.com, meaning projected points allowed per 100 possessions against an average team. They're also holding opponents to 28% shooting from beyond the arc. This is MSU’s last game before getting a taste of Big Ten play, with games at Minnesota (Wednesday) and against Penn State (Dec. 11).

MORE: Couch: 3 quick takes on Michigan State's 73-64 win over Louisville

• Toledo update: The Rockets, the defending Mid-American Conference regular season champions, have won four straight, though this is their first high-major opponent of the season. They’ve got wins over Valparaiso, Detroit and UNC-Charlotte, with their lone loss coming at Oakland. Ryan Rollins, a sophomore from Macomb Dakota High School in Michigan, put up 35 points in a recent win and is averaging 20 per game. Rollins and their two big men — albeit each only 6-foot-7 — are capable outside shooters, with the two bigs, JT Shumate and Setric Millner Jr., a combined 20-for-40 from beyond the arc through seven games. Toledo plays just a seven-man rotation, with all five of its starters averaging better than 30 minutes per game. Lansing’s Justin Ingram, a former Waverly and Toledo star as a player, is in his fourth season as an assistant coach for the Rockets.

• Inside the matchup: This will be an interesting matchup at the power forward and center spots, given Toledo’s personnel. Millner can score on the drive and from long range. Shumate can stretch a defense, too. That’ll require MSU’s centers to get out to the 3-point line. Rollins will be another test for Max Christie defensively. He’s a pure scorer, though he’ll take some tough shots. MSU should have an edge on the glass. Both teams are prone to turnovers. In Toledo’s lone loss, for example, the Rockets coughed it up 19 times, five of those by point guard RayJ Dennis, a transfer from Boise State.

MORE: Couch: Max Christie's baptism into MSU stardom is going better than you might think

• Prediction: This is a fairly seasoned and skilled Toledo team, just without much depth. The Rockets haven’t played an opponent of MSU’s ilk yet, so it’s hard to picture just how good they might be. But Rollins, Shumate and Millner were starters last year on a squad that won 21 games. Toledo is likely to be a better challenge for MSU than their MAC brethren WMU and EMU were last month.

Make it: MSU 81, Toledo 64

Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.

This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball vs. Toledo: Prediction, preview, how to bet, TV info