Michigan State football at Maryland: 5 determining factors and a prediction
1. Can MSU’s defense find some success that gives them confidence
At this point, the No. 1 job of MSU’s defensive coaching staff is breathing some confidence into their beleaguered players. The Spartans aren’t the most talented crew, but teams have been far better than this with less. The question is: Can MSU find some success against Maryland that gives them some confidence and a little swagger? If the Spartans can get off the field on a couple third downs or come up with an early turnover or big sack or stuff the run on third-and-short … that could do wonders for them (As long as the offense doesn’t screw it up like after the goal-line stand at Washington.). It’s hard to change defense schemes mid-season. But you can change some of the complexities of your defense. You can choose to be more simplistic and aggressive. I think that’s probably this group’s best shot, for better or worse. But it badly needs something to go right.
2. Jacoby Windmon
For two weeks, defensive end Jacoby Windmon was the new Kenneth Walker — a transformational transfer, only this time on the defensive side of the ball. Turns out, it does matter who you play. And, once teams saw Windmon on film, they were able to better prepare for him. Windmon is not a natural defensive end. He’s built to play linebacker. But he's shown he's an effective and versatile pass rusher and he has a knack for stripping the ball loose and for leadership. It was Windmon who called the defense together last Sunday for a players-only meeting to go over the game in detail and try to figure things out. MSU doesn’t have many difference-makers on this season's defense. But I think Windmon is close. The Spartans could use an impactful day out of him against a capable Maryland offense and talented quarterback, Taulia Tagovailoa, who is expected to play despite being dinged up against Michigan last week.
3. Can MSU run the football?
More than anything, I think this will determine whether Saturday’s game is competitive. Because for all the issues with MSU's defense, the Spartans' most surprising problem last week against Minnesota was their completely inept offense. MSU the last two weeks is getting zero to little push up front and not maximizing whatever holes there are. I hear from fans who want MSU to abandon the run and turn to some sort of air-raid offense. I think the opposite. The Spartans need balance, even if it’s forced balance. They need to run the ball 35 times in this game and, ideally, net at least 125 yards on the ground. Either way, they need to run it 35 times. They need to because they need the ground game to get going or, at the very least, they need the threat of the ground game to give the passing game a chance to carry them. If the Spartans can run the football with any success, I think they’ll be in this game at the end. If they can’t, and they can’t sustain drives, this becomes a long day, with a long season ahead.
4. The best of Jay Johnson and Payton Thorne
It isn’t easy to call plays or play quarterback when your offensive line is incapable of winning up front. While we don’t know if that’ll be the case again Saturday, MSU offensive coordinator Jay Johnson and QB Payton Thorne should be ready for that possibility. Johnson has to be as creative and adaptive as ever. He’s got to stubbornly run the ball for balance, but not stupidly, like on downs when they have to pick up 4 yards or they'll be punting. I think Johnson is a bright offensive mind. I think he’s up to this, but also only if his quarterback is. Thorne, sans parts of the game against Washington, has yet to put together a good game in his collegiate career when MSU’s offense hasn’t been led by its ground game. It’s time. That’s the next step. He’s got the physical tools and experience and moxie. He’s just got to put it all together. Connor Cook did this as a senior at Rutgers in a game he was knocked down nine times and MSU would have lost otherwise without his brilliance. If Thorne is going to lead this MSU team to a bowl game, he’ll have to show he can do it, too.
5. The weather
The remnants of Hurricane Ian are headed up the East Coast and rain is expected Saturday in College Park, Maryland. I don’t know if that’s good or bad for this MSU team. It might be a wet track and sloppy game. The Spartans have to dig in and embrace it and be the better team in whatever sort of game the weather allows. The weather might also impact the crowd, which was already going to include a sizable chunk of MSU fans. We’ll see whose fans still decide to show.
Prediction
This is a big game for both teams. For the Terrapins, who finally appear to have some teeth, this is the next step as a program — to take care of business against a struggling team but good brand like MSU, after coming close last week at Michigan. For the Spartans, this game is massive, likely the difference between a 3-9 season and 6-6, which could have ramifications beyond this season. It’s better for MSU that Maryland is a decent team this year, with an offensive-minded head coach (Mike Locksley) and a seasoned and gifted quarterback (Taulia Tagovailoa), because if the Spartans get this done in College Park it’ll mean something. Whereas it really wouldn’t if this game were at Northwestern, or someplace like that, against a feeble offense. I think MSU will put up a fight and keep this competitive. It’s really hard, though, to pick the Spartans to win right now.
Make it: Maryland 30, MSU 23
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: Michigan State football at Maryland: Prediction, preview, how to bet
