Michigan State football vs. Western Michigan: 5 factors and a prediction

1. WMU QB Jack Salopek and the Broncos' passing game

The strength of this Western Michigan offense is likely its running game, with talented backs Sean Tyler and La’Darius Jefferson and an offensive line with some seasoning and apparent talent. That might serve the Broncos well in Mid-American Conference play, but the formula for an upset of this sort begins with a poised and prolific passing attack. WMU has had a big-time receiver each of the past two years — having a wideout selected in the second round of each of the past two NFL drafts. We’ll find out if junior Corey Crooms is ready to be that guy this season and if redshirt freshman QB Jack Salopek is capable of running the show at a level that causes the Spartans problems. It’s a lot to ask of a guy who’s thrown five passes in his career — to walk into Spartan Stadium and light up a Big Ten team. If Salopek isn’t ready beyond his years, this could turn into a long night for WMU. Because I don’t think the ground game that might carry the Broncos in the MAC is going to be a problem for an MSU defense whose strength is its interior defensive line.

2. The Payton Thorne show

It’s more than just Payton Thorne, obviously. It’s Jayden Reed and Tre Mosley and Keon Coleman and coordinator Jay Johnson and an intriguing backfield and group of tight ends, and an offensive line with questions to answer (more on that below). But it begins with Thorne under center and with Johnson calling plays, and their ability to get the most out of an offense with a plethora of weapons but perhaps no single weapon that scares defenses the way Kenneth Walker did a year ago. There’s enough here for this thing to hum as the season gets going. That's if Thorne is the QB MSU hopes he is. WMU’s defense, by MAC standards, is no joke. The Spartans will benefit from their offense facing a defense with some swagger and teeth, before facing an Akron team next week that appears to have neither. But if this Thorne-led offense is going to cause problems for Washington and Wisconsin, it should be able to put up points against Western Michigan and at least show signs of being a threatening crew.

MORE: Couch: One year in, AD Alan Haller details his plans for MSU - Spartan Stadium and beyond

3. Signs from MSU's offensive line

MSU safety Xavier Henderson put it as plainly as one can: “I think we're going to go as far as the offensive line takes us.” That’s a tad unsettling for MSU, because while this line — likely made up of left tackle Jarrett Horst, left guard J.D. Duplain, center Nick Samac or Brian Greene, Green or Matt Carrick at right guard and Spencer Brown at right tackle — has some promise and experience, it is not a proven unit and MSU hasn’t had a line that can maul Big Ten competition since 2015. There is nothing MSU’s line can do against Western Michigan to prove it’ll be fine against Washington and Minnesota later this month. But, if it can’t get a push against the Broncos and/or doesn’t protect Payton Thorne adequately, the Spartans have a problem. Best-case scenario, MSU leaves Friday night still unsure about its offensive line because things went relatively well.

4. MSU's (upgraded?) defense

This is a good opportunity for MSU’s defense to show it has a chance to be more formidable this season, even if it'll eventually face more daunting opposition. That goes for its secondary, its pass rush, its ability to tackle in space, which, at times, it did well last year. WMU has a young QB and a couple new starters up front and receivers who haven’t been relied upon to this extent. The Spartans ought to be able to make the Broncos uncomfortable, especially if their defensive line and linebackers prove to be as stout against the run as I think they can be. Nobody is expecting MSU’s defense to be overwhelming this season. This unit just needs to be sound, aggressive and timely. Let’s see if the Spartans show those traits.

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5. MSU's kicker, whomever it is

I don’t think this game is going to come down to a field goal. But at some point soon, MSU will win over lose based on the performance of its kicker. Freshman Jack Stone was expected to be the guy and might still be. Sophomore walk-on Stephen Rusnak could in the mix. MSU added Auburn graduate transfer Ben Patton during fall camp, which doesn’t seem to bode well for the coaching staff’s faith in the two young guys already on the roster. That said, Mel Tucker and Co. might just not be taking any chances as the program tries to replace long-time kicker Matt Coghlin. I’m curious who takes the field for the first extra point and field goal and how it goes. This could become a big story.

Prediction

I think this will be a quality WMU team in the MAC. But there’s a formula for an upset like this would be and I don’t think that formula exists here. The Broncos I suspect don't have enough juice in the passing game and MSU's offense has too much for WMU to keep pace. The Las Vegas spread of 22.5 points might be too much. Yet, the combination of MSU’s vigor offensively and WMU’s limitations should create a comfortable win for the Spartans. I see a few points less for both teams than when I first made a prediction a week ago.

Make it: MSU 34, WMU 13

MORE: Couch: Predicting MSU's football season – WMU through Penn State (and a bowl projection)

Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.

This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU football vs. Western Michigan: Prediction, preview, how to bet