Is Michigan State football's season on the line against Maryland?
No, the season isn’t over if Michigan State football loses today at Maryland. It may feel like it to some. It may look like it in the standings — the Spartans would be staring up at .500 and staring down Ohio State next week in East Lansing.
Lose to the Terrapins, and MSU is almost certainly at 2-4 next Saturday night, with Wisconsin, Michigan and Illinois to follow. The Badgers and Illini are beatable. The Wolverines represent the rivalry.
Momentum being what it can be, the possibility of 2-7 is out there, and it’s not unreasonable. But a loss today doesn’t mean the Spartans will nosedive straight away. A 4-5 record is possible, too. Get there and a mid-November game represents the season: at home against Rutgers.
Beat the Scarlet Knights and find a way to win at Indiana the next week and MSU secures a bowl berth. A likely loss against Penn State to end the regular season would mean a 6-6 record.
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That's not the number of wins so many were thinking of a month ago, but a number that might look pretty respectable all else considered:
That Mel Tucker is in the midst of a full-on rebuild.
That his first year — 2020's COVID season — should be tossed.
That his second year — the Kenneth Walker III season — should also be tossed; Tucker found MSU's version of Barry Sanders, albeit in one-and-done form, which masked a lot.
Which means this season should be considered Year 2 of MSU's rebuild. Although Tucker has now had two full recruiting classes, only one happened without lingering COVID-era restrictions.
Now, if MSU finishes 3-9, with little life in its losing and even less strategic creativity — or desperation — as it finishes out the schedule, then yeah, question where the program is headed.
If Tucker rubber-stamps another plan in which he and offensive coordinator Jay Johnson act like they still have Walker in the backfield, then yeah, question everything. Question everything, too, if defensive coordinator Scottie Hazelton changes nothing after saying he would make changes, after Tucker said he would make changes.
Sometimes it's not the losses as much as it’s the way the losses happen. In other words, Spartan fans and MSU’s administration are savvy enough to see the difference between hard-headedness and a coaching staff that is trying everything.
MSU doesn’t have a roster to compete in traditional ways against the upper echelon of the Big Ten. Heck, it may not have the roster yet to compete against the middle echelon of the Big Ten. Today’s game should offer more clarity on that.
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Because when teams can’t compete at the line of scrimmage, teams shouldn’t keep trying to compete at the line of scrimmage. Ask almost any coach at a non-Power Five school and they’ll tell you: Junk it up!
Perhaps they’ll use other words, but you get the point.
Which is to say that until Tucker can pencil in enough offensive lineman to consistently open holes for running backs, his staff must get more creative in the passing game and build the plan around Payton Thorne and the receivers.
Defensively, where injuries have hurt what might have been a solid defensive line, the issue is one of depth. MSU doesn’t have it.
The lack of pressure up front magnifies the weakest part of the defense: the secondary. Though injuries back there have hurt as well.
There is no way to slow down a competent offense without the ability to pressure the quarterback and cover receivers. This means Tucker is going to have to take more chances defensively.
And while blitzing is risky, it can’t be much worse than the past two weeks, when Washington and Minnesota carved up the Spartans' defense like a chainsaw carves up ice.
Ice sculptures aside, it may not matter what Tucker and Hazelton come up with today as they try to slow the Terrapins’ offense, which hung 27 on the Wolverines at Michigan Stadium last week. But if the defensive attempt looks — and feels — different, then Tucker gains a little patience as he tries to figure it all out.
He deserves that. He also deserves expectations, though, and for this season, that means trying to find ways to keep his team’s compete level high.
The Spartans appeared overwhelmed at Washington but kept coming back. The loss stung, but at least there was fight.
They lost a little of that fight against Minnesota in the second half. Part of that was knowing the Gophers had too much for them up front — on both sides.
That’s deflating, no doubt. That’s also something good coaches combat the next week.
How MSU competes in College Park today is more critical than the final score. We don’t often say that at this level.
The Terrapins are a solid team with an explosive offense playing at home. They should win. But a win doesn’t mean the end of the Spartans’ season.
Not if Tucker is who we think he can be.
Contact Shawn Windsor: 313-222-6487 or swindsor@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter@shawnwindsor.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Mel Tucker still in the middle of a rebuild of Michigan State football
