Michigan State at Illinois: 5 determining factors and a prediction

1. Can MSU’s short-handed defense hold up against a physical Illini attack?

It’s hard to know the impact the suspensions will have on MSU’s defense. But missing linebacker and rush end Jacoby Windmon, defensive end Zion Young and nickelback and safety Angelo Gross won’t help matters. Windmon’s absence is especially problematic, given the playmaker he’s been for the Spartans. MSU is also down a couple of backups due to suspension and injury and will be mighty thin at linebacker and defensive end. We’ll see if the progress this unit has made since the return of defensive tackle Jacob Slade and safety Xavier Henderson continues. Those two are still there. That helps. But Illinois is the wrong team to face without a full deck. Illini running back Chase Brown leads the Big Ten in rushing (1,208 yards) and yards per game (151) at 5.4 yards per carry. And while this is not a prolific Illini passing attack, Syracuse transfer Tommy Devito has been efficient, completing nearly 73% of his passes, with 12 touchdowns and just two interceptions.

2. Can MSU’s offense be explosive enough to give the Spartans a chance?

The overwhelming evidence suggests not. MSU hasn’t scored more than 21 points in regulation of any Big Ten game. There just isn’t enough juice offensively. If there’s any hope, it’s with the Spartans’ passing game, which has shown flashes in the last two games of being the dynamic attack I thought it had a chance to be, before reality set in. The Spartans do have the playmakers to cause opponents trouble in Jayden Reed and Keon Coleman on the outside and a couple quality tight ends. Yet other than a couple drives in the first half at Michigan and three weeks ago against Wisconsin, that hasn’t been close to enough. Offensive coordinator Jay Johnson needs a bounce-back game. Payton Thorne has to trust his instincts throughout and play his best game. They’ll be up against an Illinois defense that is the strength of this team, tops in the country in points allowed (8.9 per game), giving up less than 200 total yards a game in Big Ten play, and a unit that features defensive back Devon Witherspoon, who is high on NFL draft boards. He’ll likely be on Reed.

3. MSU’s special teams and long-snapper

The Spartans can put together all the third-down stops and productive drives they want, but if they can’t snap the ball to their punter or count on three points when they get inside the 20-yard line, they’re not going to win this game. It’s unclear whether starting long snapper Hank Pepper will be back. That position has been an adventure without him and that has clearly impacted punter Bryce Baringer, who was the star of this team the first half of the season. MSU is 1-for-4 on field goal tries all season. That’s going to have to change this month for the Spartans to have any shot at three more wins and getting to 6-6.

4. The Spartans’ mindset against an Illini team that’s dialed in

Michigan State has had a week — a demoralizing loss to its rival, the suspension of eight teammates, plenty of criticism. Xavier Henderson and Payton Thorne talked Tuesday about leadership and rallying together and all that. And it all sounds great. It’s easier said than done sometimes. I don’t question their intent. I question their headspace. This is a real test of resolve and want-to and veteran leadership (as well as depth of talent in the program). We’ll learn something about this team based on how the Spartans compete.

5. The weather

It’s supposed to be a rainy and windy day Saturday in Champaign, Illinois, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. The storms might be gone by kickoff, but if it’s wet and windy and that makes for a difficult day throwing the ball, it’s a massive advantage to Illinois, which has smothered opposing rushing attacks and, offensively, would prefer to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible.

MORE: Couch: With blood in the water, this is a program month for Michigan State football

Prediction

Pound for pound, it’s hard for me to believe these programs are as far apart as they appear. But every time I watch Illinois, I’m more impressed. The Illini have some of what MSU did offensively last year, especially in the backfield, but also a defense that hasn’t shown any holes — albeit against a slate of opponents that have been somewhat limited offensively. The Spartans will fit right in.

Make it: Illinois 24, MSU 7

This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: Michigan State football at Illinois: Prediction, preview, how to bet