Michigan State at Indiana basketball tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction
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• What: Michigan State at Indiana
• When: Noon Sunday
• Where: Assembly Hall, Bloomington, Indiana
• TV/Radio: CBS/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; Sirius/XM Ch. 385 (MSU broadcast), 386 (Indiana broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 13-6 overall, 5-3 in the Big Ten and unranked. Indiana is 12-6 overall, 3-4 in the Big Ten and unranked.
• Betting line: Indiana -3.5
• Kenpom projected score: Indiana 72, MSU 68
• Coaches: MSU — Tom Izzo is 679-273 in his 28th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Indiana — Mike Woodson is 33-20 in his second season as a collegiate head coach, both with the Hoosiers.
• Series: Indiana leads 71-58 all-time. The Spartans won the only meeting last season and both meetings the year before that.
Lineups
MSU
C (22) Mady Sissoko (6-9) 5.6
PF (10) Joey Hauser (6-9) 13.4
G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 8.2
G (2) Tyson Walker (6-1) 14.6
PG (11) AJ Hoggard (6-4) 12.7
Indiana
F (23) Trayce Jackson-Davis (6-9) 18.6
F (22) Jordan Geronimo (6-6) 6.0
F (12) Miller Kopp (6-7) 8.3
G (32) Trey Galloway (6-4) 7.0
G (1) Jalen Hood-Schifino (6-6) 13.2
• MSU update: The Spartans are coming off a 70-57 home win over Rutgers on Thursday that stopped a two-game losing streak before it became a thing. The victory over the Scarlet Knights is MSU’s best win of the season by a ways, per Kenpom, which has Rutgers as a top 20 team (No. 18). The Spartans' next best wins are over No. 33 Kentucky and No. 39 Penn State. Their top opponents so far, via Kenpom, are Alabama (4), Purdue (5), Gonzaga (14) and Illinois (27). Though eight conference games, MSU is third in the Big Ten in 3-point shooting (.378) and second in 3-point defense (.295). The Spartans are also the third-best free-throw shooting team in league play at close to 76%.
MORE: Couch: Jaden Akins is beginning to meet rising expectations – Izzo's and his own
• Indiana update: The Hoosiers seem to have found themselves and done so in a big way, bouncing back from three straight losses, and six defeats in nine games, with two emphatic wins. They rolled 63-45 at home against Wisconsin and, most impressively, 80-65 at Illinois on Thursday — a game in which Trayce Jackson-Davis poured in 35 points on 15-of-19 shooting, and tallied nine rebounds, five assists in three blocked shots against an Illini defense that never seemed to adjust to his domination. Just before this two-game stretch, the Hoosiers had been thumped at Penn State and lost close games to Iowa and Northwestern. Indiana, like MSU, has had to deal with injuries to two key players, losing point guard Xavier Johnson to a foot injury in December and big man and glue guy Race Thompson to a knee sprain in early January. Indiana is hoping to have one or both of them back by sometime in February.
• Inside the matchup: Perhaps what we saw from Indiana these last two games was a team figuring things out after some tough injury luck. The Hoosiers and Spartans are kindred spirits on that front this season. What was clear in Indiana’s win at Illinois Thursday is that continuing to guard Jackson-Davis one-on-one, once he gets comfortable, is a mistake. Jackson-Davis is one of the more difficult matchups for most teams in the Big Ten. MSU, especially minus Malik Hall, doesn’t have a good defensive answer for him. Unlike with Purdue’s Zach Edey, I’d be surprised if the Spartans left Mady Sissoko and Carson Cooper alone to deal with Jackson-Davis. You’ll likely see a similar approach to what MSU did in defending Michigan’s Hunter Dickinson, mixing up double-teams and guards digging down with single-coverage, which kept Dickinson from ever knowing what he was facing on a given possession.
Indiana does have some shooters who can hurt you in freshman guard Jalen Hood-Schifino (44% from 3) — who might be the Big Ten's freshman of the year — and one-time Northwestern transfer Miller Kopp (46%). Guard Tamar Bates off the bench is also a capable long-range shooter. Improved play from forward Jordan Geronimo has helped of late, too. But teams that have beaten Indiana have limited Jackson-Davis or made him take a lot of shots for his points. MSU needs to get off to a decent start overall and keep him from getting in a groove.
• Prediction: Until about a week ago, I didn’t like where this Hoosiers team was headed. They missed Thompson badly defensively and they didn’t seem all that well-connected. I don’t know what to think after their last two games, other than Jackson-Davis is a problem for Indiana's opponents right now. MSU appears to be getting Indiana at Assembly Hall at the wrong time.
• Make it: Indiana 70, MSU 65
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball at Indiana: Prediction, preview, TV info, betting line
