Michigan State vs. Buffalo tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction

Graham Couch, Lansing State Journal
·4 min read
Armoni Foster, a Division-II All-American transfer, has given Buffalo a boost in the backcourt this season.
Armoni Foster, a Division-II All-American transfer, has given Buffalo a boost in the backcourt this season.
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• What: Michigan State vs. Buffalo

• When: 6 p.m. Friday

• Where: Breslin Center, East Lansing

• TV/Radio: Big Ten Network (Kevin Kugler and Dane Fife)/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; Sirius/XM Ch. 372 (MSU broadcast)

• Records/Rankings: MSU is 8-4 overall, 1-1 in the Big Ten and unranked. Buffalo is 6-6 overall, 0-0 in the Mid-American Conference and unranked.

• Betting line: MSU -16

• Coaches: MSU — Tom Izzo is 674-271 in his 28th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Buffalo — Jim Whitesell is 448-339 as a collegiate head coach, including 61-38 in his fourth season with the Bulls.

• Series: MSU leads 4-0 all-time, though these programs haven't met since 1938 at Demonstration Hall.

Lineups

MSU

C (22) Mady Sissoko (6-9) 6.8

PF (10) Joey Hauser (6-9) 14.1

G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 7.6

G (2) Tyson Walker (6-1) 13.9

PG (11) AJ Hoggard (6-4) 12.7

Buffalo

F (24) Jonnivius Smith (6-9) 4.6

F (1) LaQuill Hardnett (6-8) 8.4

F (23) Isaiah Adams (6-6) 9.9

G (3) Curtis Jones (6-5) 14.8

G (4) Armoni Foster (6-4) 8.8

Michigan State's Malik Hall holds onto the ball as the game ends after the Spartans victory over Villanova on Nov. 18. Hall has been out since with a foot injury. He's expected to return against Buffalo.
Michigan State's Malik Hall holds onto the ball as the game ends after the Spartans victory over Villanova on Nov. 18. Hall has been out since with a foot injury. He's expected to return against Buffalo.

• MSU update: The Spartans have played just once in the last 19 days, a Dec. 21 home win over Oakland. MSU is expected to have Malik Hall back after missing six weeks with a stress reaction in his left foot. Hall averaged 12 points through four games, including 20 in the Spartans’ overtime win against Kentucky in the Champions Classic. It’s unclear how much he’ll play, but this is a good two-game stretch — against Buffalo on Friday and Tuesday home against Nebraska — to get him back into the mix and as up to speed as possible before Michigan visits Breslin Center next weekend. MSU football player Keon Coleman has begun practicing with the team, as well, though whether he’ll play this season hasn’t been finalized between Tom Izzo and Mel Tucker.

MORE: Couch: Exactly 25 years ago, MSU basketball won the game that 'changed the program' and set the course for all that followed

• Buffalo update: The Bulls are coming off a 129-62 win over Division-III SUNY Canton on Dec. 21, which followed a 96-78 loss at West Virginia three days earlier. They also lost by 20 at Connecticut (the No. 2-ranked team via Kenpom) in November, though a lot of teams are losing by 20 to UConn this year. Their best wins are over Georgia Mason and St. Bonaventure. This is a transfer-heavy Buffalo roster, with a ton of turnover since last season. Leading scorer Curtis Jones starred for one year at junior college power Indiana Hills (Iowa) before signing with the Bulls. His backcourt mate, Armoni Foster, was a Division-II All-American at Indiana University of Pennsylvania, where he spent four years (though there was no season in 2020-21). Second-leading scorer, guard Zid Powell, who comes off the bench, is also a juco transfer. Junior forward Isaiah Adams played last season at Central Florida. And center Jonnivius Smith played last year at Seton Hall, after beginning his career in the junior college ranks.

• Inside the matchup: Buffalo would prefer to get out and run, which fits MSU’s style to a degree. The Bulls are 12th nationally in adjusted tempo, per Kenpom, and averaging the fifth-most fast-break points per game in college basketball. MSU’s adjusted tempo ranks 307th this season, partly due to injuries and lack of depth and strength of schedule. The Spartans haven’t had a ton of games where they can impose their will. However, given that they’ve only scored more than 74 points in regulation once this season, perhaps “their will” isn’t going to be an uptempo style this season. This will be a good test of that. It’s also hard to know truly what MSU wants to be or will become because it’s played so much of the season without Jaden Akins and Malik Hall. Buffalo is not a good 3-point shooting team, making just 29.1% of its tries from long range. The Bulls do defend the perimeter fairly well. But their success requires living in transition. MSU, at full strength, has shown itself to be capable of being elite defensively. Buffalo's Curtis Jones is a nice player, a high-major talent and the Bull's best shooter and scorer. I’d expect AJ Hoggard and Akins to get that assignment.

• Prediction: I like the matchup for MSU, which I don’t think is susceptible to a mid-major squad that has good athletes but doesn’t shoot it from deep at a decent percentage. This could be MSU’s first track-meet game of the year, which should suit the Spartans just fine on both ends.

• Make it: MSU 79, Buffalo 68

— Graham Couch

This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball vs. Buffalo: Prediction, preview, TV info, betting line