Michigan State vs. Nebraska tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction
• What: Michigan State vs. Nebraska
• When: 7 p.m. Tuesday
• Where: Breslin Center, East Lansing
• TV/Radio: Big Ten Network/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; Sirius/XM Ch. 195 (MSU broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 9-4 overall, 1-1 in the Big Ten and unranked. Nebraska is 8-6 overall, 1-2 in the Big Ten and unranked.
• Betting line: MSU -7
• Coaches: MSU — Tom Izzo is 675-271 in his 28th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Nebraska — Fred Hoiberg is 147-129 in his ninth season as a collegiate head coach, including 32-73 in his fourth season with the Huskers.
• Series: MSU leads 21-9 all-time, including 14-3 since the Huskers joined the Big Ten. MSU has won nine straight meetings, though the Spartans have lost twice to Nebraska at Breslin Center in the last decade, in 2014 and 2016.
Lineups
MSU
C (22) Mady Sissoko (6-9) 6.7
PF (10) Joey Hauser (6-9) 14.1
G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 8.2
G (2) Tyson Walker (6-1) 13.4
PG (11) AJ Hoggard (6-4) 12.5
Nebraska
F (13) Derrick Walker (6-9) 13.6
F (4) Juwan Gary (6-6) 9.7
G (0) C.J. Wilcher (6-5) 9.7
G (25) Emmanuel Bandoumel (6-4) 9.9
G (5) Sam Griesel (6-7) 10.7
• MSU update: The Spartans jump back into Big Ten play coming off four straight wins, including Friday’s 89-68 win over Buffalo. It’s all conference games from here until the NCAA tournament, beginning with two home games this week — Tuesday night against Nebraska and then Saturday afternoon against Michigan. After two months, MSU is the Big Ten’s third-best 3-point shooting team at 38%. The Spartans are the league’s fourth-best free-throw shooting team (.737). They’re also fourth in assist-to-turnover margin, averaging 16.4 assists and 11.1 turnovers. A year ago, MSU averaged 15.7 assists and 12.8 turnovers per game.
• Nebraska update: The Huskers have, to a large degree, picked up this season where they left off at the end of last season, when, seemingly out of nowhere, they won at Penn State (by 23), at Ohio State and at Wisconsin, after losing 16 of their first 17 Big Ten games. This roster is a nice mix of holdovers with some sweat equity and seasoned transfers. And it's a program that in its fourth year under Fred Hoiberg has finally gone away from the wide-open, uptempo style that got it nowhere for most of three seasons and turned to a more plodding Big Ten-like approach. Nebraska is 280th nationally in adjusted tempo, per Kenpom, after being in the top 35 nationally each of the last three seasons, with little on-court success. The change is working. The Huskers this season have a road win at Creighton (rather soundly, too), they beat Florida State by 17, lost at Purdue in overtime and just beat Iowa 66-50 at home on Thursday.
• Inside the matchup: Nebraska has balanced scoring and decent depth, bolstered by three experienced transfers in the starting lineup who've won other places — forward Juwan Gary (Alabama) and guards Sam Griesel (North Dakota State) and Emmanuel Bandoumel (SMU). This is a Huskers team that normally doesn’t hurt you with long-range shots (though they hit 8 of 22 against Iowa). A couple holdovers — C.J. Wilcher and, off the bench, Keisei Tominaga — have been their only consistent long-range threats of any volume and both are shooting below 38% from 3. But collectively they’re shooting 53% inside the arc and they defend adequately, which is better than any Huskers team in recent memory. Big man Derrick Walker, a Tennessee transfer who’s been with Nebraska's program for a while now, is a good scorer around the basket and skilled on the drive. Griesel is a big point guard who, other than one horrific turnover game at St. John’s, has taken care of the Huskers pretty well this season. He can hit from deep, too. He just doesn't take many 3s. He’s an interesting matchup. I’d expect AJ Hoggard or Jaden Akins to deal with his size. It’s a veteran Nebraska team that plays with cohesion and has done enough on the road this season to think it can win at Breslin.
• Prediction: For the first time since the Spartans beat Penn State in early December, they’ll have to play well to win. I think MSU has better guards and more dangerous shooters than Nebraska. But I’ll be surprised if this isn’t a competitive game deep into the second half. It probably won’t be a high-scoring one.
• Make it: MSU 67, Nebraska 62
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball vs. Nebraska: prediction, preview, TV, betting line
