Michigan State vs. Ohio State: 5 determining factors and a prediction

1. Can MSU’s passing attack have the game of its life?

Michigan State isn’t likely to be able to run the ball for much yardage Saturday, though offensive coordinator Jay Johnson has to stick to it and realize that the number of carries is the most important running game stat in a matchup like this. You have to force balance, make the defense respect the notion that you might run it, give your passing game a chance. Quarterback Payton Thorne and his receivers and tight ends will have to do the rest — provide the explosive plays, the bulk of the third-down conversions and the points.

This is a potential legacy game for a number of MSU’s offensive playmakers — a chance for Thorne to show he can go toe to toe with, perhaps, the best quarterback in the country, even if he doesn’t have all of C.J. Stroud’s advantages surrounding him, a chance for Jayden Reed to reemerge as a bona fide college star, a chance for Keon Coleman or tight end Daniel Barker or Maliq Carr to emerge on the scene. It’s a big ask to keep pace, given Ohio State’s likely advantage in the trenches and the number of points the Buckeyes will put up. But them’s the breaks. If you want to be great, here’s the stage.

We’ve seen glimpses from Thorne and Co. this year — against Western Michigan, in the second half at Washington, in the first half at Maryland. They’ll have to be better than they’ve been at any point this season to give themselves a chance Saturday.

2. Can MSU’s defense force Ohio State to drive the field

We all know about Ohio State’s quarterback and receivers and the threat they pose. It’s legit. QB C.J. Stroud is projected to be the No. 1 pick in the next NFL draft and, even with receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba sidelined, the Buckeyes have two electrifying receivers in Emeka Egbuka and Marvin Harrison Jr. That’s a problem for MSU, which can’t leave its cornerbacks on an island this week. That bend-but-don’t-break defense you hate, the zone coverage the Spartans have struggled with so far, that’s the play Saturday. Just do it better, like early last season.

Here’s the other thing: If MSU doesn’t have some success stopping a physical and explosive Ohio State running game, Ohio State will be able to choose the final score. The Buckeyes have two talented backs in Milan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson (who’s expected back this week) and a line that seems more determined to maul people. The Spartans have to make Ohio State work on the ground and keep the Buckeyes’ receivers in front of them as best they can. You’re not trying for a shutout here. This is the best offense in college football (48.8 points per game, 8.02 yards per play). You’re just trying to hang in there, keep the game within a possession or two, and give your own offense a chance.

3. Third downs, on both sides of the ball

MSU is allowing opposing offenses to convert better than 44% of third downs, including 62% against its two Big Ten opponents. That’s awful, worst in the Big Ten. Ohio State is converting on 60% of its third-down attempts. That, too, is a problem. When MSU gets the Buckeyes in third-down situations, it’s got to win its share of them, by hook or by crook. Offensively, MSU has been OK in this area, even with some memorable failures. This is not the week to be in awe of punter Bryce Baringer or settle for field-goal attempts. You’ve got to convert on third down. Or consider going for it on fourth down.

4. MSU’s kicking game has to be crisp

The Spartans might not be able to win this game with field goals and field position, but they can lose by even more if those two areas aren’t crisp. The seven points MSU left off the board at Maryland with kicking game gaffes were demoralizing and potentially costly. You can’t have that, especially this week, when you need every point and jolt of momentum. Whatever was going on with the kicking game last week (snaps, misses and blocks) needs to be on point this week. When Bryce Baringer does punt, he’s got to be his usual self and make sure the Buckeyes have as much field to drive as possible.

5. An unexpected star (or stars) for the Spartans

If MSU is going to win this game — or even be in it in the second half — the Spartans are going to need someone, perhaps two or three someones, to do something significant. That might be the game of their lives, three or four big catches, a sack-fumble, an interception, a kick return for a score. Because if Ohio State and MSU show up as just their usual selves, this is going to get ugly. MSU has some talent on offense and some guys who are capable of being opportunistic on defense. This would be a good week to see it.

MORE: Couch: How can MSU compete with Ohio State? The past is full of answers, not all of them promising

Prediction

I’ve been wrong before in thinking Ohio State was going to blow out the Spartans. In 2015, for example, when I learned Connor Cook wasn’t playing moments before kickoff, I predicted 50-2 Ohio State, with a Shilique Calhoun safety being the Spartans' only score. Well, MSU outplayed the Buckeyes and won 17-14. I’ve picked MSU to lose seven straight times to Michigan. The Spartans have won four of those games. I picked MSU to beat Washington and Minnesota. In other words, don’t bet the farm based on my prediction. But there is zero evidence through five weeks that these two teams are in the same realm.

Make it: Ohio State 48, MSU 14

This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: Ohio State football at Michigan State: Prediction, preview, how to bet