Michigan State vs. Rutgers: 5 determining factors and a prediction
1. MSU’s improved defense against a limited Rutgers offense
Michigan State’s defense has gone from a debilitating weakness to a unit that you might argue is a strength. Not the sort of strength you want to lean on with all of your weight, but a strength relative to many other defenses in the Big Ten. Seriously. The Spartans have allowed seven touchdowns total in their last three games — including two to a Michigan team that’s averaging 4.2 TDs in its other Big Ten games and 15 points to an Illinois team that’s scored at least 26 in all but one of its other conference games. These aren’t Denicos Allen’s Spartans yet, but they’ve stopped the bleeding. And now they get Rutgers, averaging a Big Ten-worst 12.3 points and 252.5 yards in league games. This is an awful offense most weeks. It’s a chance for this Xavier Henderson-led unit to really take control of a game. Let’s see if they can do it.
2. The offensive line’s encore
MSU won last week at Illinois in large part because its offensive line won a decent amount in the trenches. Rutgers is a lesser defensive front. But outside of Ohio State, Minnesota and Michigan – all good offensive lines, with NFL-caliber running backs – Rutgers has been a decent rush defense. I’m curious whether MSU can create an advantage at the line of scrimmage offensively against the Scarlet Knights. A capable Big Ten offensive line would do so. So, we’ll get a better sense for where this MSU offensive is this Saturday.
3. Payton Thorne’s encore
I thought MSU’s quarterback played his best game of the season at Illinois. The conditions, he said, were the worst he’s ever played in and yet, he was efficient and accurate and gutsy and, while imperfect, got the job done on a stage when MSU badly needed Thorne’s best. Thorne has a had a rough season. Some of that’s on him. He’s also dealt with some difficult circumstances — an inadequate offensive line much of the time, an injury to receiver Jayden Reed, a defense that, for several weeks, rarely got the ball back to Thorne quickly. I think the Spartans are in a good place right now. And, as long as there aren’t sustained 25 mph winds Saturday at Spartan Stadium, this is a week for it all to come together. Thorne could use a week where he looks prolific.
4. Rutgers’ mindset
Last week, I wondered about the Spartans' heads. MSU was down eight suspended players, coming off an emotional loss to their rival, with a 3-5 record, heading into a road game against the best team so far in the Big Ten West. Turns out, the Spartans were dialed in and determined. This week, it’s Rutgers that I’m wondering about. The Scarlet Knights are coming off a home night game against Michigan that was a campus event, a game they led at half time, before reality set in and the wheels came off. Rutgers is 4-5, no worse than Michigan State. This should be a big game for that program. We’ll see if they have similar resolve to what the Spartans showed last week or if this is a deflated crew. I don’t think the Scarlet Knights are as talented as MSU top to bottom. So they’ll have to be all in.
5. The vibe at Spartan Stadium
This is the first noon game of the season for MSU and the first home game in close to a month. I think it’ll be a good crowd. Fans respect what this team did last week. They respect how the incident in the tunnel at Michigan was handled by MSU's coaching staff and administration. They want this team to finish strong. Firearms hunting season in Michigan hasn’t started yet. So that helps. The weather shouldn’t be awful. There ought to be some energy in the building. MSU needs it. I think it’s easier to win on the road than it is at home with a lackluster crowd.
Prediction
I’m a little surprised that MSU is a 10.5-point favorite in this game, considering the Spartans haven’t scored more than 23 points in regulation of any Big Ten game this season. If Rutgers is engaged in this game Saturday, I don’t think MSU has the horses at the line of scrimmage to blow out the Scarlet Knights. But the Spartans do have a better quarterback-receivers combination and a defense that’s feeling good about itself. That should be enough.
Make it: MSU 23, Rutgers 14
Contact Graham Couch at gouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: Michigan State football vs. Rutgers: Prediction, preview, how to bet
