Midterm elections 2022 - live: Warnock trails and Fetterman leads in final pre-election polls

With Election Day looming in this year’s midterms, polls are showing that the contest to control the US Senate is down to the wire, while Republicans are placed to retake the House of Representatives. According to polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight and lead forecaster Nate Silver, the Senate contest in particular remains much where it was at the start of the year, with numerous swing-state races on a knife-edge.

Early vote numbers, meanwhile, are surging and have just passed the total reached in the 2018 midterm cycle, particularly in Georgia, where Democrats hope the more than 2 million votes already cast will favour them.

In the last few days, Joe Biden has campaigned in Albuquerque, San Diego, and Joliet, Illinois, before joining former President Barack Obama in Philadelphia to get out the vote for PennsylvaniaSenate candidate John Fetterman. Mr Obama and Mr Fetterman held an event in Pittsburgh earlier on Saturday and Bernie Sanders also campaigned in the state.

Former president Donald Trump, meanwhile, was in Pennsylvania on Sunday before heading to Florida, where he and Governor Ron DeSantis held separate rallies, adding further fuel to speculation of a rivalry between the two.

Key points

• Fetterman supporters undeterred by stroke as Obama does last-minute campaign

• Will Trump’s scandal-plagued Senate endorsements come back to bite the GOP?

• Midterm spending hits new high

• Utah Senator called for destruction of Social Security

• Nevada: Jimmy Kimmel launches ad against Republican Adam Laxalt

Trump delays 2024 announcement until after midterms despite election eve tease

04:30 , John Bowden

Former president Donald Trump on Monday ended an hours-long rehashing of old grievances at a rally for Ohio Senate candidate JD Vance without announcing his intention to run for president in 2024.

Many had expected that Mr Trump planned to do so at his rally this evening in Dayton, but instead the ex-president told his fans to stay tuned.

“Not to detract from tomorrow’s very important, even critical election — and I would say in the strongest way it’s a country saving election ... I’m going to be making a very big announcement on Tuesday, November 15 at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida,” said Mr Trump on Monday.

Read more in The Independent:

Trump delays 2024 announcement until after midterms despite election eve tease

Trump lawyer tells DeSantis to ‘stay in Florida’ as 2024 rivalry turns nasty

03:33 , John Bowden

Donald Trump’s attorney showed the latests signs of the former president’s desire to begin attacking his presumed 2024 primary rival, Ron DeSantis, this weekend during an interview with a right-wing broadcaster.

Alina Habba was speaking on Right Side Broadcasting, a YouTube channel that typically provides live coverage of Mr Trump’s various events, when she flatly insisted that the Florida governor needed to “stay in Florida” and not challenge Mr Trump for the 2024 nomination.

“He needs to stay in Florida,” she warned. “Just stay where you are. You are doing a great job in Florida.”

Read more in The Independent:

Trump lawyer issues warning to DeSantis as 2024 rivalry turns nasty

Donald Trump bashes Biden, touts Republicans at election eve rally

02:35 , John Bowden

Donald Trump was in Dayton, Ohio on Monday stumping one last time for JD Vance as Republicans hope to keep Ohio’s open Senate seat red in tomorrow’s elections.

Much of Trumpworld is abuzz with speculation regarding whether the ex-president planned to announce his long-expected 2024 bid for the presidency at tonight’s rally.

As a result, the rally itself took on a larger audience than other Trump rallies have recently, with even the press box being filled up as local and national outlets waited for an announcement that could shake up the political landscape for the rest of 2022, if not tomorrow’s midterm elections.

Watch here:

Polls from progressive outlet Data for Progress give Republicans advantage

01:00 , John Bowden

Left-leaning outlet Data for Progress is out with a final set of pre-election polls in several states which skew noticeably in favour of GOP candidates.

Marco Rubio, in Florida, leads his opponent Val Demings by 12 points in the Data for Progress survey of Florida while the outlet also has Adam Laxalt leading Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada by two points.

Read through the results here:

Joe Biden holds competing rally in Maryland

00:31 , John Bowden

While Donald Trump prepares to go onstage in Ohio — and is rumoured to be planning a 2024 announcement — President Joe Biden is in Maryland, appearing at a midterm eve rally of his own.

Mr Biden joined the stage with Wes Moore, the Democratic candidate favoured to be the state’s next governor, as well as incumbent Senator Chris Van Hollen, who is up for reelection.

Watch here:

How and when to watch Donald Trump’s speech in Ohio

00:06 , John Bowden

Donald Trump’s rally is underway in Ohio, with the president set to address his fans at 8 pm eastern.

The rally is being held in Dayton, and is expected to be attended by his chosen US Senate candidate, JD Vance, as well as the state’s Republican governor, Mike DeWine.

The Independent will carry Donald Trump’s remarks live on our Twitter and Facebook. Stay tuned.

Republicans are suing to disqualify voters in battleground states

Monday 7 November 2022 23:31 , John Bowden

A lawsuit from GOP candidate for secretary of state Kristina Karamo – who would serve as the state’s chief elections officer, if elected – sought to make Detroiters either vote in person or obtain an absentee ballot in person. If successful, she would have seen thousands of otherwise valid ballots tossed from this week’s midterm races.

But the attempt to do so was a “clear violation” of voters’ constitutional rights, according to Wayne County Circuit Court Chief Judge Timothy Kenny.

Read more from Alex Woodward:

Republicans are suing to disqualify voters in battleground states

Nikki Haley faces backlash after calling for Raphael Warnock to be deported at Georgia rally

Monday 7 November 2022 23:00 , John Bowden

Nikki Haley may have gone too far at a rally this week when she declared that Georgia voters need to “deport” Senator Raphael Warnock at the ballot box tomorrow.

“Legal immigrants are more patriotic than the leftists these days,” she said at a rally for his opponent, Herschel Walker. “They knew they worked to come into America, and they love America. They want the laws followed in America, so the only person we need to make sure we deport is Warnock.”

Read more in The Independent:

Nikki Haley faces backlash after calling for Raphael Warnock to be deported

Final Wisconsin poll puts Ron Johnson ahead

Monday 7 November 2022 22:32 , John Bowden

A final poll in the Wisconsin Senate race has placed incumbent Senator Ron Johnson just one point ahead of his Democratic challenger, Mandela Barnes. Mr Johnson was seen as one of the top opportunities for a Democratic pickup in 2022, but Mr Barnes failed to take a polling lead during the campaign.

Other polls released so far this month have put Mr Johnson at as high as a six-point margin against Mr Barnes.

Mr Johnson faced scrutiny for his role in Donald Trump’s scheme to overturn the 2020 election throughout the campaign, but painted his opponent as a far-left radical and a socialist in return.

Final election polls out in Georgia, Pennsylvania

Monday 7 November 2022 22:00 , John Bowden

The final polls of the Georgia and Pennsylvania Senate races are out, and both contests are within the surveys’ margins of error. Control of the Senate is a complete toss-up headed in to Tuesday’s midterms as a result.

In a Landmark Communications poll of Georgia, Sen Raphael Warnock trails Herschel Walker by one point, 46-47. The latter has survived as a viable contender despite a revelation that he is accused by two women, including the mother of one of his children, of paying for their abortions.

And in Pennsylvania, John Fetterman leads his Republican opponent Dr Mehmet Oz by the same margin, 49 to 48, in a Research Co. poll of the race. Mr Fetterman saw many DC pundits sound the funeral bells for his campaign after he had some difficulty speaking clearly during a debate with Dr Oz, a symptom of his recovery from a stroke.

Capitol Police woke Nancy Pelosi to tell her of assault on husband

Monday 7 November 2022 21:15 , John Bowden

Members of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s Capitol Police security detail had to bang on the door of her Washington, DC apartment to inform her that her husband, Paul Pelosi, had been brutally assaulted, she revealed in a new interview, which partially aired on Monday.

Ms Pelosi’s husband was hospitalised after an intruder broke into their home and assaulted him with a hammer which Mr Pelosi initally grabbed to defend himself.

The ugly incident, spurred by the attacker’s apparent belief in right-wing conspiracy theories, grew fouler over the weekend when Donald Trump mocked the Speaker at his rally in Florida.

Read more in The Independent:

Nancy Pelosi reveals Capitol Police woke her to tell her of assault on husband

Zeldin supporter choked at Hochul rally

Monday 7 November 2022 20:00 , Andrew Naughtie

The New York gubernatorial election is getting ugly in the final hours of the race and now a supporter of Republican Lee Zeldin has been attacked after she crashed a rally held by Kathy Hochul, the Democratic incumbent.

Video of the incident was first posted on Twitter by an independent journalist. In the video, a group of people are seen arguing and physically fighting as a speaker is heard addressing the Hochul rally; a group of Mr Zeldin’s supporters are apparently trying to push their way into the crowd. Two people, a man and a woman, are seen restraining a third woman who is briefly grabbed by the neck by the larger man and then released.

Shortly after, the restrained woman breaks away and gives the woman restraining her moments ago a hard shove.

John Bowden reports:

Lee Zeldin supporter choked by man at Kathy Hochul rally days before midterms

Obama and Biden team up on selfie video

Monday 7 November 2022 19:30 , Andrew Naughtie

The much-discussed Obama-Biden “bromance” continues – or so it seems – on the campaign trail, with the former running mates now dropping a self-shot video urging supporters to get out and vote:

Analysis: Summer Lee tries to flip the script on crime

Monday 7 November 2022 19:00 , Andrew Naughtie

On the road in Pennsylvania, Eric Garcia has this dispatch from a progressive Democrat’s attempt to push back on the GOP’s relentless crime messaging:

Read the full analysis below.

In Pennsylvania, a Black female progressive and the super PAC trying to stop her

Colorado official wearing body armour because of election threats

Monday 7 November 2022 18:30 , Andrew Naughtie

A Colorado election official believes that the threats of violence that have bubbled up in the weeks leading up to the midterms has given him no other choice but to don a bulletproof vest.

“I wear one pretty much every single day,” said Josh Zygielbaum, the County Clerk and Recorder in Adams County, Colorado, in an interview with Terry Moran which aired on ABC News on Sunday night.

Following former President Donald Trump’s unsubstantiated claims that widespread voter fraud cost him his re-election in 2020, there has been a wave of threats launched against election workers, which later prompted the Justice Department to set up a task force in the summer of 2021.

Johanna Chisholm has more.

Election official claims he’s been forced to wear body armour amid midterm threats

Donald Trump Jr continues Fetterman attacks

Monday 7 November 2022 18:00 , Andrew Naughtie

The eldest son of former president Donald Trump on Sunday accused the Pennsylvania lieutenant governor who is currently running for Senate as a Democrat of having no detectable brain activity during warm-up remarks at one of his father’s signature political rallies.

Speaking to a crowd of supporters at a Miami, Florida, rally in support of Senator Marco Rubio, Donald Trump Jr suggested Pennsylvania Senate candidate John Fetterman is not up to the job on account of a stroke he suffered in May.

He accused Democrats of wanting to “release violent offenders” from prisons, and cited the example of Mr Fetterman, who the younger Mr Trump called “the brain dead potential senator from Pennsylvania”. He added that Mr Fetterman has “mush for brains” as well.

Andrew Feinberg reports:

Donald Trump Jr continues vile attack on John Fetterman over stroke

Putin ally boasts of Russian election interference

Monday 7 November 2022 17:30 , Andrew Naughtie

A key Vladimir Putin ally had admitted that Russia is interfering in US elections and said that they “will continue to interfere”.

On Monday, Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin said he had interfered in American elections and that he woudl carry on doing so.

It’s the first admission from someone blamed by the US for attempting to influence US politics.

“We have interfered (in US elections), we are interfering, and we will continue to interfere. Carefully, accurately, surgically and in our own way, as we know how to do,” Mr Prigozhin said, according to comments posted by the press department of his catering company Concord.

Gustaf Kilander reports:

Putin ally admits Russia interfering in US elections and ‘will continue to interfere’

Analysis: The Trump-backed Republican who could end up running New York

Monday 7 November 2022 17:00 , Andrew Naughtie

Republican Long Island Congressman Lee Zeldin, who’s now running to unseat Democratic New York governor Kathy Hochul, was among the first elected GOP officials supporting Mr Trump’s presidential bid, more than a year before he won the 2016 election. He voted against both of Mr Trump’s impeachments and tried to block the creation of a congressional committee to investigate the Capitol attack.

Hours after the mob breached the halls of Congress on 6 January 2021, Mr Zeldin joined 146 other House Republicans to challenge the outcome. He posted a clip of his speech on the House floor on 6 January with the title “in defense of the Republic.” That night, he streamed himself from inside the Capitol to appear on The Ingraham Angle on Fox News, telling host Laura Ingraham that the violent riots are “bigger than the president” and “bigger than 2020”.

And now, with his race looking far more competitive than expected, he could be on the brink of running one of the US’s largest states.

Alex Woodward looks at the state of play.

A Trump-endorsed Republican could end up running New York: The rise of Lee Zeldin

Elon Musk endorses Republicans in congressional elections

Monday 7 November 2022 16:30 , Andrew Naughtie

As if he wasn’t already causing a public meltdown by firing half his company’s staff (only to be forced to invite some of them back), newly minted Twitter owner Elon Musk has called on voters to back the Republican Party in congressional elections because “shared power curbs the worst excesses of both parties”.

This is not going down well with his critics on the platform he now controls.

House predictions: RealClearPolitics weighs in

Monday 7 November 2022 16:00 , Andrew Naughtie

As the FiveThirtyEight forecast for the midterms gets its de rigeur pre-election day traffic, another major polling aggregator is out with its own forecast. RealClearPolitics, whose political coverage has an overall rightward bent, is predicting that the Republicans will have a majority of at least 9 in the House of Representatives. It rates 34 seats as toss-ups, but even if all of those were to fall to the Democrats in its model, the GOP would still be in charge in the lower chamber.

Catch up: What to know about the midterms

Monday 7 November 2022 15:30 , Andrew Naughtie

If you’re just tuning into our coverage of the midterm elections, here’s a good way to catch up: Gustaf Kilander’s explainer on the ins and outs of election day, complete with an overview of the issues driving the polls:

When are the midterm elections?

Dead heat in New Hampshire

Monday 7 November 2022 15:00 , Andrew Naughtie

It’s not just in presidential primaries that New Hampshire is a crucial state; this year, it could well decide which party controls the US Senate.

Six years after she bested then-incumbent senator Kelly Ayotte by just 1,017 votes, New Hampshire Senator Maggie Hassan’s bid for a second term is shaping up to be equally close. And in the Granite State’s First Congressional District, the race between incumbent Democratic Representative Chris Pappas and ex-Trump White House aide Karoline Leavitt is even closer than the senate contest, with Mr Pappas holding a single-point lead over Ms Leavitt.

Andrew Feinberg writes:

New Hampshire Senate and House races appear deadlocked in last-minute poll

McCarthy: Marjorie Taylor Greene will be on House committees

Monday 7 November 2022 14:30 , Andrew Naughtie

Kevin McCarthy, leader of the GOP in the House and quite possibly the next speaker, has confirmed that extremist congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene – who is expected to cruise to re-election tomorrow – will be entitled to serve on House committees just like any other member in the next Congress, this despite being stripped of her assignments last year over a repeated pattern of false, racist and violent remarks.

And as per Mr McCarthy’s answers on CNN this morning, there are no red lines as to which committees Ms Greene can serve on. That means she may yet get onto the Oversight Committee, which many in the House GOP say can be used to persecute the Biden administration (and the president’s family) with assorted investigations.

Trump reins in DeSantis attacks at Florida rally

Monday 7 November 2022 14:00 , Andrew Naughtie

Former president Donald Trump appeared to dial down his rhetoric against Florida governor Ron DeSantis after facing backlash over the weekend from conservatives.

At a rally in Latrobe, Pennsylvania on Saturday, Mr Trump took a swipe at his onetime ally and referred to him as “Ron DeSanctimonious”.

The former president showed poll numbers on a screen, showing Republican voter preferences for GOP nomination for president in 2024.

“There it is, Trump at 71. Ron De-Sanctimonious at 10 per cent,” he said.

But by Sunday afternoon, the former president appeared to have dialled back his attacks and asked voters at a rally in Florida to vote to re-elect the governor again.

Sravasti Dasgupta reports.

Trump reins in DeSantis attacks after stunning GOP with direct assault on 2024 rival

Steve Bannon stumps with Kari Lake

Monday 7 November 2022 13:30 , Andrew Naughtie

Far-right agitator and Trump associate Steve Bannon, who was recently found guilty of criminal contempt of Congress, has been campaigning with extreme right-wing Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, a notoriously zealous proponent of 2020 election conspiracy theories.

At an appearance this weekend, he couched the importance of her campaign in terms not just national but international, saying a Lake victory would send a message to capital cities around the world.

Ms Lake is generally polling even with her Democratic opponent, Katie Hobbs, and has indicated she might not accept the result if she is defeated.

Georgia: Warnock frames Senate race as contest between “right and wrong”

Monday 7 November 2022 13:00 , Andrew Naughtie

On the campaign trail in Georgia this weekend, Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock hammered home his closing argument in his campaign against Republican nominee Herschel Walker, telling a crowd that they had a moral imperative not to vote for the scandal-ridden former NFL star:

DeSantis releases ad suggesting God created him on the eighth day

Monday 7 November 2022 12:30 , Andrew Naughtie

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has made increasingly overt appeals to Christian nationalist voters during his midterm re-election campaign, which is widely seen as a stepping stone to a presidential run in 2024.

Bevan Hurley reports on the latest ad.

DeSantis releases ad suggesting God created him on the eighth day

Could Trump’s scandal-plagued Senate endorsements come back to bite the GOP?

Monday 7 November 2022 12:00 , Andrew Naughtie

John Bowden writes:

Republicans seem eager to test the boundaries of electability this year. Where a typical midterm election would see a crop of ambitious GOP state-level officials making their first forays into national politics supported mostly by national Republicans and special interest groups, 2022 has instead seen the launch of Donald Trump’s effort to transform state governments as well as the national GOP House and Senate caucuses to mirror his image. A swath of disloyal, impeachment-supporting Republicans met their ends in primaries earlier this year, and now Mr Trump hopes to usher in his chosen loyalists into power this November.

Read more:

Will Trump’s scandal-plagued endorsements come back to bite the GOP?

Former GOP elected officials sound the alarm on election deniers

Monday 7 November 2022 11:30 , Oliver O'Connell

A group of 25 former Republican elected officials has warned that the future of American democracy is at stake in next Tuesday’s midterm elections due to the presence of anti-democratic election deniers on the ballot in races across the country.

Abe Asher has the details.

Former GOP elected officials sound alarm on election deniers ahead of midterms

Bernie Sanders warns ‘future of this country’ at stake

Monday 7 November 2022 11:02 , Andrew Naughtie

US Senator Bernie Sanders and his progressive allies are rallying across the US in the waning days of the 2022 midterm elections, giving Democratic candidates in battleground states a final boost before Election Day.

While President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, Barack Obama and other prominent Democratic officials rally voters with an urgent “get out the vote” message to drive turnout, the Independent senator from Vermont has embarked on a 19-stop tour to get his progressive supporters and younger voters to the polls.

Alex Woodward reports.

Bernie Sanders warns ‘future of this country’ at stake in final midterm blitz