Midterm elections always matter and they may matter even more in 2022 | Lyons
The stakes are always high in the midterms. They’re even higher this time.
Control of either the House or Senate opens up the investigation machine now common to both parties. Expect Hunter Biden and a lot more. Control of the Senate means a freeze on confirmations of Biden's judicial appointments.
This is not a presidential election. But the election is still about close contests in key states. So what do we know? There is no name on the ballot in more than one state or congressional district. But of course it is very much a national election in that it serves as a message about the direction of the country under the party in power.
This time it’s the Democrats. It’s about the economy, crime and immigration. And maybe also about January 6th, the Supreme Court and the Dobbs decision.
It’s about all these and timing too. There was an immediate, visceral reaction after the high court overturned Roe v. Wade. This benefited Democrats in two ways. First, a key demographic -- suburban women not strongly connected to either party -- were more likely to vote, and much more likely to vote for the candidate with a D. The Republican advantage in excitement about voting vanished overnight.
The abortion issue is still with us and will be for a while. But despite some talk about national legislation, the issue is now in the hands of state legislatures and governors who wield potential vetoes. The same cannot be said about the economy. Inflation is the issue on people’s minds. It is a purely national issue and top of mind as voters get ready to vote in House and Senate races.
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How polling works
Early voting has already begun. So why does anyone care who is doing well in the polls in the various states? It matters. Parties don’t want to direct their resources to hopeless causes. But on the other hand, by withholding funds they often turn a tough challenge into a near impossible one.
Recent polls have given the Republican candidate an outside, but somewhat credible chance of upsets in Colorado. GOP decision makers think it's worth risking millions on that possibility. But Republicans have apparently decided that New Hampshire is too steep an electoral hill to climb.
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All this is based on surveys during the run up to the election. They don’t just reflect attitudes. They influence attitudes and the likelihood of voting. This year’s a roller coaster, with the “There is a wave. No there’s not. Well, wait, now there is.”
Any survey of attitudes in any population rests on the premise that one can talk to a relatively small number of people and generalize to the larger group: the universe. The smaller group is the sample.
The key to making this work is that everyone in the larger group has to have an equal chance of being included in the sample.
An underestimate of Republican opinions signals a red wave
Meanwhile the survey craft has gotten more difficult. The task has always been simple enough. Find a group of people typical of those who will vote in the upcoming election and ask them how they intend to cast their ballot.
Finding them is hard enough. It's getting them to respond that's the problem. And it’s a problem if those who respond are not representative of who will turn out. The key races are in the Senate. Many appear to be very close in recent surveys. And lately it's Republicans who are harder to contact and interview.
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Assuming the surveys slightly underestimate Republican strength, it’s looking like the wave is back and the House will go to the Republicans. That will mean a gridlock in making big policy changes.
The Senate will boil down to a few key states and possibly a runoff in Georgia. Much of President Biden’s ability to make key judicial appointments depends on holding on to a Democratic Senate. Midterms always matter. They may matter even more this time.
William Lyons is director of policy partnerships for the Howard Baker Jr. Center for Public Policy and professor emeritus of Political Science at the University of Tennessee. He also served as Chief Policy Officer for Knoxville Mayors Bill Haslam, Daniel Brown and Madeline Rogero.
The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Howard Baker Jr. Center for Public Policy or the University of Tennessee.
This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Midterm elections always matter and they may matter even more in 2022
