Midterm elections – live: Final polls and predictions in as US prepares for Election Day

With Election Day looming in this year’s midterms, polls are showing that the contest to control the US Senate is down to the wire, while Republicans are placed to retake the House of Representatives. According to polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight and lead forecaster Nate Silver, the Senate contest in particular remains much where it was at the start of the year, with numerous swing-state races on a knife-edge.

Early vote numbers, meanwhile, are surging and have just passed the total reached in the 2018 midterm cycle, particularly in Georgia, where Democrats hope the more than 2 million votes already cast will favour them.

In the last few days, Joe Biden has campaigned in Albuquerque, San Diego, and Joliet, Illinois, before joining former President Barack Obama in Philadelphia to get out the vote for PennsylvaniaSenate candidate John Fetterman. Mr Obama and Mr Fetterman held an event in Pittsburgh earlier on Saturday and Bernie Sanders also campaigned in the state.

Former president Donald Trump, meanwhile, was in Pennsylvania on Sunday before heading to Florida, where he and Governor Ron DeSantis held separate rallies, adding further fuel to speculation of a rivalry between the two.

Key points

• Fetterman supporters undeterred by stroke as Obama does last-minute campaign

• Will Trump’s scandal-plagued Senate endorsements come back to bite the GOP?

• Midterm spending hits new high

• Utah Senator called for destruction of Social Security

• Nevada: Jimmy Kimmel launches ad against Republican Adam Laxalt

McCarthy: Marjorie Taylor Greene will be on House committees

14:30 , Andrew Naughtie

Kevin McCarthy, leader of the GOP in the House and quite possibly the next speaker, has confirmed that extremist congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene – who is expected to cruise to re-election tomorrow – will be entitled to serve on House committees just like any other member in the next Congress, this despite being stripped of her assignments last year over a repeated pattern of false, racist and violent remarks.

And as per Mr McCarthy’s answers on CNN this morning, there are no red lines as to which committees Ms Greene can serve on. That means she may yet get onto the Oversight Committee, which many in the House GOP say can be used to persecute the Biden administration (and the president’s family) with assorted investigations.

Trump reins in DeSantis attacks at Florida rally

14:00 , Andrew Naughtie

Former president Donald Trump appeared to dial down his rhetoric against Florida governor Ron DeSantis after facing backlash over the weekend from conservatives.

At a rally in Latrobe, Pennsylvania on Saturday, Mr Trump took a swipe at his onetime ally and referred to him as “Ron DeSanctimonious”.

The former president showed poll numbers on a screen, showing Republican voter preferences for GOP nomination for president in 2024.

“There it is, Trump at 71. Ron De-Sanctimonious at 10 per cent,” he said.

But by Sunday afternoon, the former president appeared to have dialled back his attacks and asked voters at a rally in Florida to vote to re-elect the governor again.

Sravasti Dasgupta reports.

Trump reins in DeSantis attacks after stunning GOP with direct assault on 2024 rival

Steve Bannon stumps with Kari Lake

13:30 , Andrew Naughtie

Far-right agitator and Trump associate Steve Bannon, who was recently found guilty of criminal contempt of Congress, has been campaigning with extreme right-wing Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, a notoriously zealous proponent of 2020 election conspiracy theories.

At an appearance this weekend, he couched the importance of her campaign in terms not just national but international, saying a Lake victory would send a message to capital cities around the world.

Ms Lake is generally polling even with her Democratic opponent, Katie Hobbs, and has indicated she might not accept the result if she is defeated.

Georgia: Warnock frames Senate race as contest between “right and wrong”

13:00 , Andrew Naughtie

On the campaign trail in Georgia this weekend, Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock hammered home his closing argument in his campaign against Republican nominee Herschel Walker, telling a crowd that they had a moral imperative not to vote for the scandal-ridden former NFL star:

DeSantis releases ad suggesting God created him on the eighth day

12:30 , Andrew Naughtie

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has made increasingly overt appeals to Christian nationalist voters during his midterm re-election campaign, which is widely seen as a stepping stone to a presidential run in 2024.

Bevan Hurley reports on the latest ad.

DeSantis releases ad suggesting God created him on the eighth day

Could Trump’s scandal-plagued Senate endorsements come back to bite the GOP?

12:00 , Andrew Naughtie

John Bowden writes:

Republicans seem eager to test the boundaries of electability this year. Where a typical midterm election would see a crop of ambitious GOP state-level officials making their first forays into national politics supported mostly by national Republicans and special interest groups, 2022 has instead seen the launch of Donald Trump’s effort to transform state governments as well as the national GOP House and Senate caucuses to mirror his image. A swath of disloyal, impeachment-supporting Republicans met their ends in primaries earlier this year, and now Mr Trump hopes to usher in his chosen loyalists into power this November.

Read more:

Will Trump’s scandal-plagued endorsements come back to bite the GOP?

Former GOP elected officials sound the alarm on election deniers

11:30 , Oliver O'Connell

A group of 25 former Republican elected officials has warned that the future of American democracy is at stake in next Tuesday’s midterm elections due to the presence of anti-democratic election deniers on the ballot in races across the country.

Abe Asher has the details.

Former GOP elected officials sound alarm on election deniers ahead of midterms

Bernie Sanders warns ‘future of this country’ at stake

11:02 , Andrew Naughtie

US Senator Bernie Sanders and his progressive allies are rallying across the US in the waning days of the 2022 midterm elections, giving Democratic candidates in battleground states a final boost before Election Day.

While President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, Barack Obama and other prominent Democratic officials rally voters with an urgent “get out the vote” message to drive turnout, the Independent senator from Vermont has embarked on a 19-stop tour to get his progressive supporters and younger voters to the polls.

Alex Woodward reports.

Bernie Sanders warns ‘future of this country’ at stake in final midterm blitz

Obama: ‘I love you back, but you gotta vote’

10:30 , Oliver O'Connell

Barack Obama urged people to get out and vote in the US midterms as he rallied in Pittsburgh on Saturday (5 October).

Campaigning for John Fetterman, Pennsylvania’s Democratic nominee for US Senate, the former president had an amusing exchange with the crowd when one person shouted “I love you”.

“I love you back, but you gotta vote,” Mr Obama said, drawing cheers from the crowd.

He also criticised the Republican Party, suggesting their only policy is to “cut tax for the rich”.

‘I love you, but you gotta vote’: Obama rallies crowd in Pittsburgh ahead of midterms

Voices: World will suffer if Democrats lose the Senate

09:00 , Oliver O'Connell

Fighting global warming is among President Biden’s signature accomplishments in the first two years of his term, and one that could be halted in its tracks by the slightest change of voting results writes David Callaway.

If Democrats lose the Senate, the world will suffer

Fetterman supporters undeterred by stroke as Obama does last-minute campaign

07:30 , Oliver O'Connell

“It did not change what he cares about, it didn’t change his values, his heart, his fight,” Mr Obama said at the rally. Eric Garcia reports from Pittsburgh.

Fetterman supporters undeterred by stroke as Obama does last-minute campaign

In closing arguments, Warnock and Walker get personal

06:00 , Oliver O'Connell

After spending months arguing that Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker is “not ready” for high elected office, Sen. Raphael Warnock of Georgia is intensifying his critique ahead of Election Day to say the celebrity athlete is fundamentally unfit for Capitol Hill.

Read more:

Warnock, Walker get personal in Georgia's closing arguments

New record set as 2.5 million people vote early in Georgia

04:30 , Oliver O'Connell

More than 2.5 million early votes have been cast in the battleground state of Georgia as the hotly contested Senate race between Democrat incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock and Republican candidate Herschel Walker enters its final days.

The previous early voting record for a midterm election was 2.1 million ballots cast either early in-person or by mail in 2018. This year’s election appears to have beaten that by approximately 20 per cent according to the Georgia secretary of state’s office.

In the 2020 presidential election, just over 4 million Georgians voted early.

More than 2.5 million Georgians have cast early votes, setting new record

Will voters stick with Biden outlook or take US another way?

03:30 , Oliver O'Connell

With his party’s control over Congress teetering on the brink, President Joe Biden has traveled the country this fall trying to turn the midterm elections into a choice between two visions for America. On Tuesday, voters will decide whether to stick with his outlook or take the country in a different direction.

Biden is dealing with difficult challenges in elections that will set the dynamics for the rest of his first term. Presidents tend to see their party suffer major setbacks in their second year in office, and in addition, Biden is saddled with a cloudy economic picture and the limits of his own popularity.

In the campaign’s closing sprint, Biden has tried to rely on a message that has promotes his accomplishments — many of which will take years to be truly felt — and warns of the consequences of a GOP takeover of Congress.

Will voters stick with Biden outlook or take US another way?

Twitter to delay rollout of paid blue checkmarks until after midterms, report says

02:30 , Oliver O'Connell

Twitter will delay the rollout of their new system of verification check marks to subscribers of its $7.99 per month subscription service until after the US midterm elections on Tuesday, according to report by The New York Times.

The Times cites an internal post and two people with knowledge of the decision. The Independent has contacted Twitter for confirmation of the report.

Twitter to delay rollout of paid blue checkmarks until after midterm, report says

Obama warns ‘truth is on the ballot’ in midterms

01:30 , Oliver O'Connell

Former president Barack Obama has warned “democracy itself is at stake” in the upcoming US midterm elections.

Mr Obama gave an impassioned speech from Philadelphia where he was campaigning for Democratic candidates John Fetterman and Josh Shapiro on Saturday (5 November).

“Truth and facts, logic and reason, and basic decency are on the ballot. Democracy itself is on the ballot. The stakes are high” he told a cheering crowd.

Mr Obama hit out at Mr Fetterman’s GOP rival Dr. Mehmet Oz, who previously claimed “local political leaders” should be involved in a women’s decision to have an abortion.

“Women should be able to control what happens to their own bodies” Mr Obama said.

Obama warns ‘truth is on the ballot’ in upcoming midterms

Trump road-tests nickname for Florida governor and potential 2024 rival Ron DeSantis

00:30 , Oliver O'Connell

Former president Donald Trump on Saturday appeared to take his first public swipe at the man who many Republicans have been eyeing as a potential alternative to take on Joe Biden in 2024: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

Mr Trump mockingly referred to his onetime ally, who won the Sunshine State’s 2018 gubernatorial election after earning the then-president’s endorsement, as “Ron DeSanctimonious” while discussing his standing in the polls during a rally in Latrobe, Pennsylvania.

Andrew Feinberg reports.

‘Ron DeSanctimonious’: Trump road-tests nickname for Florida governor as 2024 looms

What you need to know about voting as an independent in the midterms

Sunday 6 November 2022 23:30 , Oliver O'Connell

Political analysts are predicting another heavy turnout for the midterms this year, with 72 per cent of registered voters saying they are “extremely” or “very” motivated to vote this year.

While Democrats and Republicans will no doubt turn out to the polls in high numbers, some independent voters may not be aware that they can vote in the midterms.

The reason for the confusion may come from the fact that many states do not allow independents to vote in primary elections, where parties choose who will represent them in races decided in the midterms and general elections.

Graig Graziosi explains.

Can you vote in the midterm elections as an independent? What you need to know

Crowd cheers as Trump attacks Nancy Pelosi after assault on her husband

Sunday 6 November 2022 22:29 , Oliver O'Connell

Supporters of former president Donald Trump cheered when he mentioned House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Sunday evening after her husband Paul was attacked in their home in San Francisco.

Mr Trump mentioned Ms Pelosi while speaking at a rally in Miami for Republican Senator Marco Rubio of Florida.

Eric Garcia reports.

Crowd cheers as Trump attacks Nancy Pelosi after assault on House speaker’s husband

Donald Trump begins rally in Miami

Sunday 6 November 2022 21:37 , John Bowden

Former President Donald Trump took the stage in Miami just after 4pm eastern on Sunday.

Mr Trump urged his supporters in his opening remarks to vote for incumbent Senator Marco Rubio — as well as Florida Gov Ron DeSantis, whom he had derided just a day earlier.

DeSantis anger grows after Trump’s ‘DeSanctimonious’ burn

Sunday 6 November 2022 20:35 , John Bowden

Allies of Florida Gov Ron DeSantis are fuming after Donald Trump finally took the gloves off and hit his likely 2024 rival with just days to go before the midterms.

At a rally Saturday night, Mr Trump referred to the governor as “Ron DeSanctimonious” during his remarks before thousands of supporters.

Veteran CBS News political correspondent Robert Costa reported on Sunday: “Several DeSantis allies, some also close to Trump, texted last night and this morning, unprompted, expressing private anger and even disgust w/ Trump for his remarks about the Florida governor. Say they’re telling DeS. and his family, and his top aides, to still move [towards a] ‘24 bid.”

Manchin blasts Biden ahead of midterms

Sunday 6 November 2022 18:35 , John Bowden

Joe Manchin, the centrist holdout senator whose vote has vexed President Joe Biden for months on key issues, is once again turning his fire on his party with just days to go until the election.

Mr Manchin’s latest ire seems to have been triggered by comments made by Mr Biden in California in support of the CHIPS Act, where the president appeared to declare that the US was on a path towards further shutting down fossil fuel plants and replacing them with green energy sources.

“Comments like these are the reason the American people are losing trust in President Biden and instead believes he does not understand the need to have an all in energy policy that would keep our nation totally energy independent and secure. It seems his positions change depending on the audience and the politics of the day. Politicizing our nation’s energy policies would only bring higher prices and more pain for the American people,” Mr Manchin said, calling Mr Biden’s remarks “outrageous and divorced from reality”.

Trump faces GOP backlash for Ron DeSantis swipe

Sunday 6 November 2022 17:16 , John Bowden

In what could be a preview of 2024, Donald Trump took a swipe at former ally Ron DeSantis during a rally Saturday evening in Ohio, where the ex-president appeared to stump for JD Vance.

Dubbing him “Ron DeSanctimonious”, Mr Trump issued his first very public jab at the Florida governor who is widely considered to be the most likely main rival that the former president will face if he seeks the GOP’s nomination in the upcoming presidential election.

But that little remark is already coming back to bite him.

"DeSantis is an extremely effective conservative governor who has had real policy wins and real cultural wins. Trump isn’t going to be able to take this one down with a dumb nickname. He better have more than that up his sleeve," wrote conservative blogger Matt Walsh. “Also, nice job launching your public attack against the most popular conservative governor in America three days before the midterms”.

Early vote numbers surpass 2018 totals

Sunday 6 November 2022 15:54 , John Bowden

The number of early votes cast in the 2022 midterm election has surpassed the overall total from 2018, the last time Americans met to decide the fate of Congress while a presidential race was not underway.

There’s possible reasons for this, including expansions of early voting procedures under Covid-19 in many states. But some on the left are hoping a surge of voters after the Dobbs decision earlier this year will boost their party’s prospects this week.

Will their hopes be made reality? Read more in The Washington Post:

Former GOP elected officials sound the alarm on election deniers

Sunday 6 November 2022 14:15 , Oliver O'Connell

A group of 25 former Republican elected officials has warned that the future of American democracy is at stake in next Tuesday’s midterm elections due to the presence of anti-democratic election deniers on the ballot in races across the country.

Abe Asher has the story.

Former GOP elected officials sound alarm on election deniers ahead of midterms

Obama: ‘John’s stroke did not change who he is'

Sunday 6 November 2022 13:30 , Oliver O'Connell

“It did not change what he cares about, it didn’t change his values, his heart, his fight,” Mr Obama said at the rally. Eric Garcia reports from the latest rally for John Fetterman in Pittsburgh.

Fetterman supporters undeterred by stroke as Obama does last-minute campaign

Tom Cotton insists GOP will back Ukraine in new Congress despite pro-Putin conservatives

Sunday 6 November 2022 12:30 , Oliver O'Connell

Senator Tom Cotton say the Republican Party will continue to provide military aid to Ukraine if it takes control of Congress after next week’s midterms.

In the face of growing calls from the GOP to stop funding Ukraine’s war with Russia, the Arkansas senator told Newsmax that the party wouldn’t cut off assistance.

“I believe we will continue to support Ukraine with the kind of military aid that only the US can provide,” he told Newsmax.

Bevan Hurley reports.

Republican Senator Tom Cotton insists GOP will back Ukraine

Carter Center to monitor US elections for the first time

Sunday 6 November 2022 11:30 , Oliver O'Connell

The democracy promotion organisation founded by former president Jimmy Carter will monitor US elections for the first time during this year’s midterms.

The Carter Center has monitored more than 110 elections in the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and Asia since 1989 as part of democracy promotion efforts around the world. But it has never before carried out similar operations in the US.

Richard Hall reports.

Carter Center to monitor US elections for the first time during midterms

Voices: In Arizona, it’s not looking great for Republicans

Sunday 6 November 2022 10:30 , Oliver O'Connell

GOP political consultant Barrett Marson told Masada Siegel: “The Republican ticket is hard to swallow if you are up on the issues. It is difficult to vote for election deniers and conspiracy theorists even if you are a conservative person.”

Read more on the latest from Arizona:

In Arizona, it’s not looking great for Republicans

Bernie Sanders warns ‘future of this country’ at stake

Sunday 6 November 2022 09:30 , Oliver O'Connell

US Senator Bernie Sanders and his progressive allies are rallying across the US in the waning days of the 2022 midterm elections, giving Democratic candidates in battleground states a final boost before Election Day.

While President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, Barack Obama and other prominent Democratic officials rally voters with an urgent “get out the vote” message to drive turnout, the Independent senator from Vermont has embarked on a 19-stop tour to get his progressive supporters and younger voters to the polls.

He has repeatedly characterised this year’s elections as “the most consequential” midterms in his lifetime, warning against a wave of Republican candidates at the state and federal level who threaten future elections, the climate and the nation’s economy.

Alex Woodward reports.

Bernie Sanders warns ‘future of this country’ at stake in final midterm blitz

Watch: Obama rallies crowd in Pittsburgh ahead of US midterms

Sunday 6 November 2022 08:00 , Oliver O'Connell

Barack Obama urged people to get out and vote in the US midterms as he rallied in Pittsburgh on Saturday (5 October).

Campaigning for John Fetterman, Pennsylvania’s Democratic nominee for US Senate, the former president had an amusing exchange with the crowd when one person shouted “I love you”.

“I love you back, but you gotta vote,” Mr Obama said, drawing cheers from the crowd.

He also criticised the Republican Party, suggesting their only policy is to “cut tax for the rich”.

‘I love you, but you gotta vote’: Obama rallies crowd in Pittsburgh ahead of midterms

Voices: World will suffer if Democrats lose Senate

Sunday 6 November 2022 05:30 , Oliver O'Connell

Fighting global warming is among President Biden’s signature accomplishments in the first two years of his term, and one that could be halted in its tracks by the slightest change of voting results writes David Callaway.

If Democrats lose the Senate, the world will suffer

With economy looming over midterms, White House holds firm on US avoiding recession

Sunday 6 November 2022 03:30 , Oliver O'Connell

The White House remains confident that the US economy will not enter a recession, despite voter concerns about rising inflation driving next week’s midterm elections and recent announcements of job cuts and hiring freezes by major technology companies.

Press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters aboard Air Force One on Thursday that the Biden administration is not making preparations for a recession, even as the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for three consecutive months amid inflation that remains at the highest levels since the 1980s.

Andrew Feinberg reports.

White House holds firm on US avoiding recession as economy looms over midterms

Luria makes final case for democracy in Virginia race

Sunday 6 November 2022 02:30 , Oliver O'Connell

In the closing days of her campaign, Rep. Elaine Luria stood on a wooden porch in a far-flung part of her newly drawn district, microphone in hand and a 7-year-old Black girl at her side, to make her final case for what is at stake in the midterm elections.

The Virginia Democrat, quoting the late Rep. Elijah Cummings, pointed toward the girl and said: “Our children are a window into the future that we will never see.” That future, Luria argued, will look much bleaker if her Republican challenger wins one of the most contested House races in the country.

Luria makes final case for democracy, vies for Black voters

Voter distrust taxes front line of US election integrity

Sunday 6 November 2022 01:30 , Oliver O'Connell

As complaints about elections, many of them unfounded, pile up around the country, investigators tasked with dealing with them find themselves on the front line of defending the integrity of America’s system for choosing local, state and national leaders.

Voter distrust taxes front line of US election integrity

Biden's alliance with the left has worked, but will it last?

Sunday 6 November 2022 00:30 , Oliver O'Connell

Joe Biden wasn’t progressives’ first choice for the White House in 2020. And he wasn’t their second or third, either.

But defying expectations, liberal Democrats have emerged as the president’s most loyal allies in Congress during his first two years in office, helping to pass a massive COVID-19 relief package, a historic investment in American infrastructure and billions of dollars to combat climate change.

Their alliance was as fruitful as it was unlikely. And it could soon be put to the test.

Biden's alliance with the left has worked, but will it last?

Will Trump’s scandal-plagued Senate endorsements come back to bite the GOP?

Saturday 5 November 2022 23:30 , Oliver O'Connell

John Bowden writes:

Republicans seem eager to test the boundaries of electability this year. Where a typical midterm election would see a crop of ambitious GOP state-level officials making their first forays into national politics supported mostly by national Republicans and special interest groups, 2022 has instead seen the launch of Donald Trump’s effort to transform state governments as well as the national GOP House and Senate caucuses to mirror his image. A swath of disloyal, impeachment-supporting Republicans met their ends in primaries earlier this year, and now Mr Trump hopes to usher in his chosen loyalists into power this November.

Read more:

Will Trump’s scandal-plagued endorsements come back to bite the GOP?

Midterm spending hits record

Saturday 5 November 2022 22:30 , Oliver O'Connell

Spending on the midterm elections is expected to reach nearly $17bn this year, far exceeding the previous record set in 2018.

Campaign finance watchdog Open Secrets is projecting $8.9bn will be spent in federal elections, and an additional $7.8bn on state races in 2022.

Bevan Hurley looks at the reasons why.

Midterm spending hits record $17bn as parties blame each other over the economy

Saturday 5 November 2022 22:15 , Oliver O'Connell

‘No wonder Oprah opposes Oz’

Saturday 5 November 2022 22:00 , Oliver O'Connell

Following Oprah Winfrey’s endorsement of Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, a Democratic super PAC has launched a new ad to capitalise on her choice over her former TV colleague Dr Mehmet Oz.

Democratic super PAC ad jumps on Oprah Winfrey supporting John Fetterman over Dr Oz

Saturday 5 November 2022 21:52 , Oliver O'Connell