Midterm polls – latest: Narrow leads for Democrats as Biden and Obama hit campaign trail

Andrew Naughtie and Oliver O'Connell
·20 min read

With one week to go until the final day of voting in the midterm elections, control of the US Senate still hangs in the balance as new polls show Democrats narrowly ahead or tied in key states.

According to a new survey from The New York Times and Siena College, Arizona’s Mark Kelly, Pennsylvania’s John Fetterman and Georgia’s Raphael Warnock are all ahead by 3-6 points. Were all three to win, that would represent a net pickup of one seat for the Democrats.

However, should Mr Warnock finish with under 50 per cent of the vote after 8 November, he and Mr Walker will be forced into a January runoff election.

Meanwhile, former President Barack Obama is continuing his late-in-the-game tour of crucial states as the Democrats try and drive up voter enthusiasm and turnout among their base. Many in the party worry that Joe Biden’s flagging approval rating is a sign that base voters are not sufficiently motivated to vote on 8 November.

Key points

What you need to know about the Ohio Senate race

12:00 , Oliver O'Connell

Ohio’s race for a US Senate seat is one of the most important — and expensive — in the nation.

The campaign has come down to a neck-and-neck battle between two candidates with national prominence and a test for the political aptitude of a former president eager to make his mark on the midterm cycle.

John Bowden reports.

Ohio Senate race: Tim Ryan faces JD Vance in crucial election

When are the midterm elections 2022?

11:30 , Andrew Naughtie

The 2022 midterm elections are scheduled to take place on Tuesday 8 November.

All of the 435 seats in the US House of Representatives will be up for reelection, along with 34 out of 100 seats in the US Senate.

In the states and territories, 39 governors’ races will be decided, in addition to a number of various state and local elections.

Here’s what you need to know:

When are the midterm elections?

Obama’s blistering takedown of Ron Johnson on social security

11:00 , Oliver O'Connell

A fired-up Barack Obama gave a blistering takedown of Senator Ron Johnson during a midterm election campaign event in Wisconsin.

Video of the former president’s remarks at a rally in Milwaukee on Saturday night went viral, garnering almost 14 million views by Monday morning.

Barack Obama’s fiery takedown of Ron Johnson on social security gets 14 million views

Pennsylvania: Dr Oz hopes to preserve GOP seat in battle against John Fetterman

09:30 , Oliver O'Connell

Pennsylvania’s Senate race has been perhaps the most bizarre one in a crowd of absurd campaigns. What should have been a relatively sleepy race where Republicans attempt to hold a Senate seat has instead turned into an intensely personal race with two outsized personalities.

Eric Garcia takes a look at the race so far.

Pennsylvania’s Senate race: Republicans try to protect a seat Democrats hope to flip

Opinion: Why Trump is holding a series of rallies in strange places during the midterm elections

08:00 , Oliver O'Connell

The former president is going on a vanity tour — and one where he isn’t always going to be greeted with open arms. Eric Garcia explains why.

Trump is holding rallies in some strange places during the midterms. Here’s why

Gosar caught on video seeming to approve of man who said he’d shot at immigrants

06:30 , Oliver O'Connell

Paul Gosar, a far-right Arizona congressman who has been stumping for the state’s Trump-endorsed gubernatorial candidate, appeared to approve of a constituent who claimed he’d shot an immigrant on his property, in a recently released video.

In the video, the Republican congressman can be seen at an event where two apparent constituents and supporters of the Arizona lawmaker approach the man to begin discussing issues at the US southern border.

Johanna Chisholm has the story.

Paul Gosar seen on video seeming to approve of man claiming he shot at immigrants

All the ways the GOP could upend America if they win the House

05:00 , Oliver O'Connell

Former Republicans tell Andrew Feinberg about the myriad ways a GOP-majority House could upend the country out of spite.

All the ways the GOP could upend America if they win the House

Trump-appointed judge won’t shut down ‘voter intimidation’ in Arizona

03:30 , Oliver O'Connell

A federal judge has rejected a lawsuit against a far-right activist group accused of intimidating Arizona voters with the “express purpose” of blocking them from casting their ballots in drop boxes in the state.

US District Judge Michail T Liburdi, who was appointed by Donald Trump, declined a request for a restraining order against Clean Elections USA and its founder Melody Jennings, who encouraged volunteers to stake out ballot boxes and photograph voters in an effort fuelled by baseless allegations that the 2020 presidential election was marred by fraud.

Alex Woodward has the story.

Judge refuses to shut down ‘voter intimidation’ at ballot drop boxes in Arizona

ICYMI: Suspect arrested after break in at Arizona Democrat’s HQ

02:30 , Oliver O'Connell

Police in Phoenix, Arizona have announced the arrest of a 36-year-old man suspected of breaking into the campaign office of a Democratic candidate for governor.

Daniel Mota Dos Reis was booked into Maricopa County Jail on 27 October on one count of third-degree burglary following a break in at Katie Hobbs’s campaign headquarters on Monday night.

He was already in custody for an unrelated burglary.

Suspect arrested after break in at Arizona Democratic candidate’s headquarters

‘You actually have to know stuff to do this job’: Warnock hits Walker over insulin comments

01:45 , Oliver O'Connell

Georgia Democratic Senate nominee Raphael Warnock hit out at Herschel Walker for his comments on insulin prices.

At a rally attended by former President Obama, Warnock criticised remarks made by Walker during a debate on 14 October. Walker, who came under fire after two women claimed the pro-life former NFL star paid for their abortions, hinted that diabetic patients concerned about insulin prices should “eat right.”

Andrea Blanco has the story.

Warnock hits Walker over insulin comments during rally

Baby Shark is endangering the midterms... how?

01:00 , Oliver O'Connell

No, Joe Biden didn’t sing the “Baby Shark” song.

But a viral deep fake video showing the US president launching into the children’s tune convinced plenty of people that he had.

Likewise, a clip of a child shouting “shut the f*** up” at First Lady Jill Biden during a reception to celebrate Diwali never happened.

Welcome to the politics of viral deep fakes. Bevan Hurley reports.

How Baby Shark is endangering the US midterms

New poll: Nevada a dead heat and Dems leading in Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona

00:15 , Oliver O'Connell

A new multi-state survey from The New York Times and Siena College is presenting easily the best news that Democrats have gotten in weeks, particularly when it comes to the fight to hold the Senate.

The survey, released on Halloween, has Democratic Senate candidates leading their GOP opponents in several key races: Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona, while the race to protect incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto is tied in Nevada.

John Bowden has the details.

New poll shows Democrats leading in Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona

Fired up Obama blitzes midterms campaign trail

Monday 31 October 2022 23:30 , Oliver O'Connell

Former President Barack Obama, still one of the Democrats’ most effective campaigners, hit the ground running this past week as he completed a whirlwind of appearances to boost his allies in key battleground states.

It’s a last-minute push aimed at reversing a sudden downward trend in the polls for a number of important candidates for Democrats including Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia and John Fetterman, the Senate seat-seeking lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania.

The former president was in Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, and has more stops ahead in Pennsylvania and Nevada. And at every stop, he recaptured the best of his campaign trail self in fired-up speeches to cheering crowds and withering diatribes against Republican opponents.

John Bowden reports.

Fired up Barack Obama blitzes the campaign trail in final stretch before midterms

How to vote in the midterm elections

Monday 31 October 2022 23:00 , Oliver O'Connell

The 2022 midterm elections are just days away on 8 November with all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, one-third of the Senate and 39 state and territorial gubernatorial candidates on the ballot.

In addition to federal races, there are also numerous other state and local elections being contested as Americans head to the polls, including state legislature seats, attorneys general, state treasurers, mayors, county positions and tribal executive positions.

To participate and have your say in the races where you live, here is what you need to know about how you go about voting, whether in-person or by absentee or mail-in ballot.

How to vote in the midterm elections

What you need to know about the Georgia Senate race

Monday 31 October 2022 22:00 , Oliver O'Connell

A preacher versus the running back will decide the future of Georgia

‘We don’t need a Walker, we need a runner’

Monday 31 October 2022 21:30 , Oliver O'Connell

Pastor Jamal Bryant railed against Herschel Walker in a fiery speech at the New Birth Missionary Baptist Church in Stonecrest, Georgia, east of Atlanta.

In his Sunday sermon, Mr Bryant took aim at the Republican Senate nominee ahead of the midterms on 8 November.

Gustaf Kilander reports on the pastor’s sermon.

Pastor rails against Herschel Walker in fiery pulpit speech

Watch: Leslie Jones teams up with Lincoln Project against voter intimidation

Monday 31 October 2022 21:00 , Oliver O'Connell

Johnson: ‘Pretty rich’ for Obama to call him ‘out of touch'

Monday 31 October 2022 20:42 , Oliver O'Connell

Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin responds to former President Barack Obama’s attacks on Johnson: “It’s pretty rich for a former president who divides his time between Martha’s Vineyard and Washington D.C. ... to say that I’m out of touch.”

Watch below:

Here’s what the former president said about Mr Johnson:

Barack Obama’s fiery takedown of Ron Johnson on social security gets 14 million views

New Poll: Dems inch ahead in Nevada

Monday 31 October 2022 20:27 , Oliver O'Connell

Just days before the end of early voting in Nevada, top Democratic incumbents, including Sen. Cortez Masto and Gov. Sisolak, hold narrow leads over their Republican opponents, according to a new Nevada Independent/OH Predictive poll of likely voters.

Country shocked by Pelosi attack as threats to democracy front of mind

Monday 31 October 2022 20:00 , Oliver O'Connell

An America that can already feel like it’s hurtling toward political disintegration has been jolted yet again, this time by the violent attack on the husband of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi less than two weeks before Election Day.

Pelosi attack shocks country on edge about democracy threats

Lindsey Graham defends Herschel Walker from ‘nasty’ Obama criticism he’s unqualified

Monday 31 October 2022 19:40 , Oliver O'Connell

Watch below:

Pelosi attack suspect DePape faces federal charges

Monday 31 October 2022 19:20 , Oliver O'Connell

David DePape, the man suspected of attacking Nancy Pelosi’s husband Paul Pelosi with a hammer at their San Francisco home, is now facing federal charges.

The charges of assault on the immediate family member of a federal official and attempted kidnapping of a federal official were outlined in a criminal complaint filed by an FBI agent in the US District Court for the Northern District of California on Monday afternoon, three days after 42-year-old Mr DePape was accused of breaking and entering into the couple’s Pacific Heights home and assaulting 82-year-old Mr Pelosi.

Johanna Chisholm reports.

Paul Pelosi attack suspect David DePape faces federal charges

Is Lauren Boebert in trouble in Colorado?

Monday 31 October 2022 19:05 , Oliver O'Connell

Colorado congresswoman Lauren Boebert is a MAGA favourite but her Democratic challenger has been earning support from unlikely sources as he climbs the polls and rakes in donations.

He says her “angertainment” turned off voters and many tell The Independent’s Sheila Flynn they agree.

‘People want the circus to stop’: Could Lauren Boebert be in trouble?

Kansas secretary of state warns of election misinformation

Monday 31 October 2022 18:35 , Oliver O'Connell

Kansas secretary of state Scott Schwab has issued a statement asking Kansans to beware of election misinformation including text messages which direct voters to incorrect polling places.

Could a Trump-backed Republican soon be leading New York state?

Monday 31 October 2022 18:05 , Andrew Naughtie

Dozens of Republican candidates who have embraced the former president and challenged the 2020 results are running for offices across the US in midterm elections this fall. But New York gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin is likely the only major candidate running in a close election in a state where voters have resoundingly rejected Mr Trump’s agenda.

Mr Trump gave his “complete [and] total endorsement” to Mr Zeldin in his race to become New York’s first Republican governor in 20 years, marking a stark reversal of the state’s Democratic leadership, upended by a campaign focused on voter perception of out-of-control crime rates.

He faces Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul, who is predicted on relatively slim margins to remain in office as the first woman governor of the state. And critics are already accusing the Democratic Party and Ms Hochul’s campaign of taking the state’s largely Democratic voter base for granted.

Alex Woodward takes stock of Mr Zeldin’s chances.

A Trump-endorsed Republican could end up running New York: The rise of Lee Zeldin

State of play: Nevada on knife-edge as Democrats cling to narrow leads in PA, GA, AZ

Monday 31 October 2022 17:35 , Andrew Naughtie

A new multi-state survey from The New York Times and Siena College is presenting easily the best news that Democrats have gotten in weeks, particularly when it comes to the fight to hold the Senate.

The survey, released on Halloween, has Democratic Senate candidates leading their GOP opponents in several key races: Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona, while the race to protect incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto is tied in Nevada.

It’s great news for the president’s party, which was sweating a recent downward polling trend for several key races, largely blamed on persistent high consumer prices. If Democrats hold their seats in Arizona, Georgia and potentially Nevada, it will likely slam the door shut on a Republican majority in the upper chamber for the last two years of Mr Biden’s first term.

John Bowden takes a look.

New poll shows Democrats leading in Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona

Obama goes viral with Ron Johnson takedown

Monday 31 October 2022 17:05 , Andrew Naughtie

A fired-up Barack Obama gave a blistering takedown of Senator Ron Johnson during a midterm election campaign event in Wisconsin.

Video of the former president’s remarks at a rally in Milwaukee on Saturday night went viral, garnering almost 14 million views by Monday morning.

Mr Obama was campaigning on behalf of Democratic candidate for the US Senate Mandela Barnes, who is running against incumbent Republican Senator Johnson.

“Some of you here are on Social Security. Some of your parents are on Social Security. Some of your grandparents are on Social Security. You know why they have Social Security?” Mr Obama asked the crowd.

“Because they worked for it. They worked hard jobs for it. They have chapped hands for it. They had long hours and sore backs and bad knees to get that Social Security.”

Oliver O’Connell reports.

Barack Obama’s fiery takedown of Ron Johnson on social security gets 14 million views

What if the Democrats keep control of Congress?

Monday 31 October 2022 16:36 , Andrew Naughtie

It might seem like an unlikely idea, even an outlandish one, but it’s far from impossible that the Democrats will buck historical precedent and hold both chambers of Congress in this year’s elections. The current odds are not in their favour as far as the House goes, but given Joe Biden’s approval rating, the party is hardly performing as badly as it could be.

So what if they somehow manage it? Here’s John Bowden to run through what another Democratic Congress would mean for abortion rights, voting rights, and the economy:

Inside the new Democratic Congress if the party pulls off a major midterm win

Why isn’t Covid an issue in the midterms campaign?

Monday 31 October 2022 15:57 , Andrew Naughtie

If current trends hold, every week, about as many Americans will be killed by Covid as died during the 9/11 attacks. The latter tragedy defined an era of US and global politics, but the rolling crisis of Covid seems to have faded into the background politically this midterm season, thanks to a mixture of lukewarm public health messaging, fatigue among the public and a deeper, baked-in political dysfunction and shallowness in Washington.

It’s a dynamic that leaves those still suffering from Covid, or those most at risk of catching it, feeling like they have to fend for themselves. People are still dying, and matters of great importance are still being decided about coronavirus, yet if you looked at the headlines, you would scarcely know it.

Josh Marcus has this look at what’s going on – and what’s not being discussed.

Thousands are still dying of Covid. Why isn’t anybody talking about it amid midterms?

Obama-Biden rally scheduled for Saturday

Monday 31 October 2022 15:19 , Andrew Naughtie

Barack Obama has already won praise for his performances so far on his return to the campaign trail in the last furlong of the midterms – and now he’s going the whole hog with a rally alongside his former deputy, the current president:

Luria leads on Jan 6 committee in final campaign ads

Monday 31 October 2022 14:30 , Andrew Naughtie

Of all the members of the January 6 committee still in the running for re-election, Democratic Congresswoman Elaine Luria is the most vulnerable, running to keep a swing district in Virginia where she managed a surprise win in 2018.

In what’s likely to be her closing ad of the cycle, she puts the crisis of democracy that the committee is tackling front-and-centre – a move that has the advantage of avoiding any discussion of Joe Biden’s agenda and performance without actually rejecting or criticising him.

Catch up: what you need to know about the midterms

Monday 31 October 2022 14:00 , Andrew Naughtie

If you’re just tuning into the midterm election cycle, there’s a lot to get your head around. Which are the most important races, what are the top issues, and when and how will people be voting?

To catch you up, Gustaf Kilander has this explainer.

When are the midterm elections?

Extreme ex-Trump aide runs racial scaremongering ad in Georgia

Monday 31 October 2022 13:30 , Andrew Naughtie

Stephen Miller, the former Trump administration aide who opposes almost all immigration and has repeatedly propagated the “great replacement” conspiracy theory that imagines a concerted plot to overwhelm white people by “importing” demographic groups with higher birth rates, is hitting Georgia voters with a radio ad via his far-right America First Legal advocacy group.

In it, he warns them of “the left’s anti-white bigotry”, and claims that the Democratic Party is essentially engaged in a racist project against all whites. (It’s worth noting that both of the state’s major-party Senate candidates are Black.)

Have a listen:

Obama on the trail

Monday 31 October 2022 13:00 , Andrew Naughtie

Barack Obama has unveiled an extended list of campaign appearances taking him across the Democrats’ frontline Senate and gubernatorial races, with four more appearances in Nevada, Arizona and Pennsylvania scheduled this week:

Sean Patrick Maloney: Accepting election results is “the American way"

Monday 31 October 2022 12:30 , Andrew Naughtie

Congressman Sean Patrick Maloney, who heads up the Democrats’ difficult campaign to hold their House majority but finds himself in a difficult re-election race of his own, appeared on Face the Nation yesterday to discuss the rising threat of political violence and the prospect that the outcome of the elections – especially on the House front – could be dire for his party.

On the results, he said that accepting defeat in an election is “the American way”, drawing a contrast with Republicans who are already raising doubts about whether the election can be deemed fair if they lose.

He also had this to say about the GOP’s claims that elections are vulnerable to meddling: “Let's not pretend for a minute that both sides have the same amount of accountability for the loss of confidence in our elections. One side has been out there for a couple of years now doing everything they can to pretend Joe Biden didn't win fair and square when he did. And that's the difference.”

Warnock hits Walker on insulin

Monday 31 October 2022 12:00 , Andrew Naughtie

At a rally also featuring Barack Obama, Georgia Senator Raphael Warnock Warnock criticised remarks made by Walker during a debate on 14 October. Walker, who came under fire after two women claimed the pro-life former NFL star paid for their abortions, hinted that diabetic patients concerned about insulin prices should “eat right.”

“We live in a state where 11 per cent of the adults have diabetes,” Mr Warnock said on Friday. “When I pointed out the ways in which there are bad corporate actors who are gouging a drug that people need that’s been around for 100 years, do you know what my opponent said? He said they just need to “eat right.”

Mr Warnock added, “You actually have to know stuff to do this job,” as the crowd applauded.

Andrew Blanco reports.

Warnock hits Walker over insulin comments during rally

New poll shows narrow Dem leads in key states

Monday 31 October 2022 11:22 , Andrew Naughtie

Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia are all critical in Democrats’ struggle to keep control of the Senate, and the polls in all three states have shown Republicans gaining ground since the end of the summer. However, a new poll indicates that in all three, the party may still have cause for hope:

Good morning

Monday 31 October 2022 11:13 , Andrew Naughtie

Welcome to our coverage of the 2022 midterm elections. Stay with us for rolling updates and analysis.