Weekend warmup to make it feel like spring in Midwest, Northeast after winter's brief visit

Cold weather that ended this week over the north-central and northeastern United States will be a thing of the past as westerly breezes push Pacific air across northern and central Plains, Midwest and finally the mid-Atlantic and New England states this weekend.

Temperatures during the late-week Arctic outbreak dipped below average in the Midwest and Northeast, which has rarely occurred in these regions this winter.

But, a change comes for the final weekend of February.

Temperatures are forecast to trend above average this weekend by 10 to 20 degrees. Following the cold, the temperature roller coaster ride could bring swings of as much as 40 degrees from the lowest point late this week to the highest point this weekend.

"The combination of moderating temperatures and strengthening late-February sunshine will help take the edge off Old Man Winter's bite," according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham.

At its peak of this weekend, the warmth will bring highs ranging from the upper 30s to near 40 over the northern tier of the Midwest and New England to the 50s along the Ohio River, in southern New England and the mid-Atlantic.

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A lack of storms and precipitation will accompany the warmup, which is a rather uncommon thing for the late winter. Usually, some sort of cloud cover and brief precipitation rides along as temperatures trend upward. However, AccuWeather meteorologists say not this time.

The weather will be great for travel, skiing, shopping, yard maintenance or just going for a late-winter walk from the northern Plains through the Midwest and the Northeast.

The ski slopes at most resorts are located on the shady (colder) side of the mountains and will weather the mild conditions just fine this weekend.

Parents and ice fishing interests are reminded that despite recent visits by Arctic air, ice on area ponds and lakes is generally not thick enough to support the weight of people and dogs this winter. Meteorologists advise to keep kids and pets away from the shores of these partially frozen water areas.

Since the beginning of 2020, temperatures have averaged nearly 8 degrees above normal in Boston, more than 6 degrees above normal in Philadelphia and New York City and more than 5 degrees above normal in Chicago and Detroit.

The National Weather Service in New York City noted that there have only been 24 days when average temperatures fell below normal since Dec. 1, and since the official start of winter on Dec. 21, the number is even lower at a total of nine days.

The unusual warmth across portions of the Northeast has contributed to a stark contrast in snow amounts across the Northeast this winter.

Philadelphia has recorded only 0.3 of an inch of snow or 2% of normal so far this season -- although that is still above the least snowy winter when only a trace of snow (less than 0.10 of an inch) was measured through the entire season in Philadelphia back in the winter of 1972-73. New York City has picked up only 4.8 inches of snow so far this season, a mere 26% of normal snowfall. This season's snow in the Big Apple also falls short of the least snowy winter on record when 2.8 inches fell that same season, 1972-73.

Areas across upstate New York and portions of New England have measured amounts closer to average or even just above average in some cases. Burlington, Vermont, has been buried under 59.8 inches thus far this season, 107% of normal snow to this point in winter.

A satellite image shared by the National Weather Service in New York City on Presidents Day shows snow on the ground across the interior Northeast and the bare ground for milder locations along the I-95 corridor. (NOAA)

Looking farther ahead, the next storm that is forecast to roll eastward will bring rain to the Ohio Valley Monday and the mid-Atlantic and southern New England on Tuesday. The air may be chilly enough to support a wintry mix and even some snow for a time over the northern tier of the Midwest and Northeast.

It is possible that colder air, which is forecast to follow a second storm next week, could pave the way for a wintry precipitation event along the Atlantic coast during the first week of March. Time will tell.

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