How will mighty Tennessee baseball, overlooked Vanderbilt fare in NCAA Tournament? My predictions | Estes
Everyone, it seems, is talking about Tennessee baseball.
No one, it seems, is talking about Vanderbilt baseball.
That's the odd way in which we've arrived at this year's NCAA Tournament, with circumstances having shifted dramatically for SEC baseball programs in our own state. The Vols are the No. 1 national seed and heavy favorites to win the whole thing, and rightfully so. Meanwhile, the Commodores were sent to Corvallis, Oregon, for the weekend and aren't expected to get out of the regional being hosted by top-three national seed Oregon State. (Also, rightfully so).
Is UT about to win it all in Omaha? Is Vanderbilt being overlooked?
Let's discuss:
TENNESSEE VOLS
The tournament's No. 1 overall seed, opens Knoxville regional Friday (5 p.m., SEC Network) against Alabama State.
Why I like their chances
The Vols have been the best team in college baseball this season, and it's not close. A strong case could be made that Tennessee has the best pitching AND the best hitting of any team in the NCAA Tournament. No weaknesses.
Why I'm not so sure
Well, there is one glaring weakness: Teams can and do run on the Vols' pitchers. Opponents stole 77 bases (out of 90 tries) against Tennessee, which was 25 steals more than any other team in the SEC allowed, making an alarming number for a pitching staff that didn't allow many baserunners. This hasn't been a problem while the Vols were bludgeoning teams at Lindsey Nelson, but it could matter in a tight game in Omaha. In the meantime, an opposing player like Georgia Tech's Chandler Simpson (who is batting .418 with 23 stolen bases) could drive Tennessee crazy in this weekend's regional. So could a team like Campbell, which is eighth in Division I in stolen bases.
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Player to watch
Talented freshman pitcher Chase Burns of Gallatin was the Vols' Friday night starter much of the season, but he was used as a reliever during the SEC Tournament. A healthy Blade Tidwell alongside Drew Beam and Chase Dollander – who might be college baseball's best pitcher right now – gives the Vols an embarrassment of riches in their rotation. So it'll be interesting to watch how Tony Vitello handles starting assignments in the postseason and in particular how he uses Burns, who has struggled with his command at times but would bring big-league stuff out of the bullpen.
What needs to happen
Nothing different at all. The Vols need to stay just as cocky and confident and bring their same swagger to this postseason. Keep dominating at the plate and on the mound. The best way to keep doing that is to keep getting early leads in games to be able to relax and play your best. In the SEC Tournament, the Vols won four games by a score of 35-10 and looked as if they barely broke a sweat. That's because they weren't seriously challenged late in games. They led nearly the entire time and were able to gradually exploit the weaknesses of opponents who had more flaws than they did. Tennessee has enough firepower to win a national championship this way. The Vols are that much better than everyone else.
What can't happen
Exorbitant expectations can be poisonous for any team, and while the Vols have the benefit of last year's Omaha experience, no one ever gets accustomed to being an overwhelmingly heavy favorite. If things start sliding and the Vols start thinking too much, it could snowball quickly on them. Truth is, we don't really know how these Vols will respond to adversity because they've hardly seen any this season.
The X-factor
As the Vols keep playing in June, it's going to hinge more on their hitting than the pitching. Sure, they'll keep slapping home runs out of their bandbox in Knoxville. But if they get to Omaha, that's a pitchers' park. The Vols' arms are solid and will be there in tight games no matter the setting, but they can't go cold at the plate for prolonged stretches. A low-scoring pitchers' duel is not their ideal game, and it's the most likely way the Vols could lose against a foe better at manufacturing runs.
Bottom line
I have a difficult time envisioning Tennessee losing a regional or a super regional in Knoxville. Just too many advantages with that crowd and that ballpark. The College World Series, now that'll be a much different setting and challenge.
But as I sit here ahead of time looking at 63 other teams, I don't see one anywhere near as good as Tennessee has been. The Vols really might be one of the best college baseball teams of all time. They'll need to prove that in the coming weeks, but at this point, I couldn't justify picking anyone else to win the national title.
VANDERBILT COMMODORES
No. 2 seed in Corvallis regional hosted by Oregon State, the tournament's No. 3 overall seed, opens play against San Diego on Friday (3 p.m., ESPNU).
Why I like their chances
If any program knows how to win this time of year, it's Tim Corbin's Vanderbilt. This roster lacks the elite, big-league talent that has carried some of the program's better teams, but it remains full of capable players who know about Omaha and what it takes to get there and stay there. There is a higher ceiling this team hasn't reached – and it knows it. If these Commodores get hot at the right time, they could be dangerous.
Why I'm not so sure
We've been waiting all season for these Commodores to build on scarce momentum and put it all together. They've just not been able to do it. A fair conclusion by now is that this is a pretty good team that doesn't do anything especially well. Some good hitters, but not enough bats. Other than Carter Holton, the starting pitching doesn't scare you, either. Lately, the bullpen has been a worsening problem, and the fielding has been shaky all season and was again in Hoover last week. This hasn't been your usual Vandy powerhouse, and unless a lot changes very quickly, it doesn't look like a group that's capable of a deep tournament run.
POSTSEASON PRIMER: Why Vandy will and won't win the Corvallis regional
TV INFO: How to watch Vandy baseball vs. San Diego
SEC TOURNEY: Vandy's pitching woes continue in Hoover
Player to watch
No one in college baseball is more fun to watch than Enrique Bradfield Jr., who is 43-for-43 on steal attempts and seems to come up with a highlight-reel defensive play every other game. If Vanderbilt's season had been up to its usual standards as a team, Bradfield would be getting more attention and be in the mix for major awards.
What needs to happen
Vanderbilt has to start hitting throughout its lineup. Going back to the College World Series last season, the Commodores simply haven't been consistent or potent enough offensively to overcome problems on the mound and with the defense. Only three players – Spencer Jones, Dominic Keegan and Bradfield – are batting above .300. Only Keegan has reached double digits in home runs (12). That's not good enough.
What can't happen
The Commodores can't start poorly on the mound Friday against a capable San Diego team and begin taxing their bullpen immediately. Vandy has a lot of arms it can use, but few of them feel reliable right now, and as noted, this offense is not going to be good enough to win many high-scoring shootouts.
The X-factor
Chris McElvain has starter stuff and proved that earlier this season. He fired seven innings of a no-hitter at Kentucky. Lately, though, McElvain has looked more like a good reliever trying unsuccessfully to start games. He hasn't won a decision since that no-hitter on April 22 and has allowed five earned runs in each of his past three starts. If Vandy is going to make a run, it'll need McElvain to pitch like an ace again.
Bottom line
Oregon State is an outstanding team that appears to be slumping at the wrong time. The Beavers lost four of five to end the regular season. They are banged up right now, and their pitchers allowed an average of 10 runs per game in the Pac-12 Tournament. That included an absurd 25-22 loss to UCLA in which they blew a nine-run lead in the ninth inning. No team capable of such a thing one week is unbeatable the next.
Vanderbilt isn't playing well by anyone's standards, especially its own. But this is still the same program that was in the past two CWS finals and the same team that managed series wins over Florida, Georgia and Arkansas. The final two of those were on the road, where Vandy has tended to play its best this season. I can't forecast Omaha again based on the troubling form, but I do think flying across the country will actually help the Commodores find a way to have fun again and get going enough to survive an opening regional that hardly anyone expects it'll win.
And if that happens, who knows?
Reach Tennessean sports columnist Gentry Estes at gestes@tennessean.com and on Twitter @Gentry_Estes.
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Predictions for Tennessee baseball, Vanderbilt in 2022 NCAA Tournament
