A million people in Polk? Local leaders discuss the biggest changes at State of Polk event

Paul Nutcher, The Ledger
·7 min read
Polk County Manager Bill Beasley told the audience at the State of Polk County event on Wednesday that the county is expected to hit one million residents by 2031 or 2032, and 1.3 million by 2050.
Polk County Manager Bill Beasley told the audience at the State of Polk County event on Wednesday that the county is expected to hit one million residents by 2031 or 2032, and 1.3 million by 2050.

Imagine a million people living in Polk County.

According to County Manager Bill Beasley, the county could reach that number, what he called a "holy grail" milestone, by 2031 or 2032. And it could reach 1.3 million by 2050.

“What does it mean?” Beasley asked more than 100 residents and elected officials gathered for the State of Polk County presentation on Wednesday. “It means more people. More demands for services. We’re becoming a more urbanized county.”

The county's shift from an agrarian to a more urban lifestyle was among the themes explored by local leaders at the event at the Polk State College Center for Public Safety in Winter Haven. Leaders from county government, Polk County schools and the Health Department gave presentations.

Beasley said Polk County has more residents than the state of North Dakota, at 787,404 people as of July, and is expected to contain 1.3 million residents by 2050. Overall, Polk is the fastest growing county in Florida and fifth fastest in the United States, he said.

He broke up Polk County population projections into three regions. The northeast is projected to grow by 220,000 people by 2050. The northwest section of Polk County is set to add 168,000 people, with southern Polk adding 60,073 people.

“You're looking at cities that are twice the size of the City of Lakeland on top of what’s existing today,” Beasley said. Lakeland has about 125,000 people.

More than 100 people attended Wednesday's State of Polk County event, where leaders discussed a range of issues across the county, from growth to traffic, schools and public health.
More than 100 people attended Wednesday's State of Polk County event, where leaders discussed a range of issues across the county, from growth to traffic, schools and public health.

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Economically, the demand for housing resulted in an increase in property values of 17.75% in 2022-23. Job growth is expected to reach 12.7% for non-agricultural jobs. Polk is considered to be in the top 10% for talent acquisition.

He said the efforts of Polk County Tourism and Sports Marketing drove a large chunk of the economic growth, especially in hospitality. The county is expecting 11 new hotels and will host seven state high school championships. He said those and other results save each county household $726 through tourist development tax revenues, which have been record-breaking for 24 consecutive months.

Not all news was positive, as shown by data on the local housing market.

Despite the median home sales price going from $310,000 in January 2022 to $324,000 in January 2023, the number of days houses remain on the market has gone from 11 days to 37 days – a 236.4% increase.

Single-family residential building permits rose to an annual high of 5,000 in 2021-2022 in unincorporated areas of the county and today they are just above 2,000. But they are expected to trend slightly upward during the second half of this year and level off at 2,300 by 2025.

While affordable housing and transportation present challenges, Beasley pointed out several initiatives underway to shelter low-income residents as well as provide workforce housing for teachers, nurses and first responders. The county has awarded $6.6 million toward these projects with larger amounts from other sources such as state funding. The county’s contribution provides 38 housing units of the 190 in the works.

On behavioral health, Beasley said the county has $18.9 million to spend in local, state and federal dollars for several programs, including funds from indigent health care for the 2022-23 fiscal year. He added an opioid settlement was part of the calculation. In all, $30 million would be spent to combat that drug epidemic over the next 18 years.

Biggest challenges: Traffic and water

County Commission Chairman George Lindsey talked about water and transportation infrastructure challenges.

“We are facing some growth pressures, but the general economy and our revenue stream is growing at the same time,” Lindsey said. “For the most part, our revenue stream can meet the demands of growth.

Polk County Commissioner George Lindsey told the crowd, “We are facing some growth pressures, but the general economy and our revenue stream is growing at the same time. For the most part, our revenue stream can meet the demands of growth."
Polk County Commissioner George Lindsey told the crowd, “We are facing some growth pressures, but the general economy and our revenue stream is growing at the same time. For the most part, our revenue stream can meet the demands of growth."

"There’s going to be some challenges. But for the most part, that’s what the budget adoption process is all about.”

The two areas with the most challenges include paying for an alternative water supply and transportation.

The new water supply will come from drilling much deeper into the Floridan aquifer. Permits for the upper aquifer can no longer be issued. Polk will contribute $100 million toward the $570.4 million price tag for developing an alternative water source.

Transportation projects include a new leg of the Polk Parkway under construction as well as efforts to plan the route of the six-mile Central Polk Parkway East expansion.

The Polk Transportation Planning Organization reported that in 2022 fewer than 50 miles of roads in the county were performing at a D or F grade level, Lindsey said. By 2042, nearly 300 miles of roads are expected to be near or at failure.

In all, 27 unfunded road capacity projects costing $1.2 billion are on the county's priority list, mostly within Polk County’s fastest growing regions.

Commissioner George Lindsey said that in 2022 fewer than 50 miles of roads in the county were performing at a D or F grade level, but that's expected to increase to nearly 300 miles by 2042.
Commissioner George Lindsey said that in 2022 fewer than 50 miles of roads in the county were performing at a D or F grade level, but that's expected to increase to nearly 300 miles by 2042.

Schools faces challenges of overcrowding

School Board Chairwoman Sara Beth Wyatt took the microphone for an update on the school district. Polk County School District is now the seventh largest in Florida and the 24th largest in the nation. Enrollment grew by 7,000 students this school year for a total of 117,000 – while public school enrollments nationwide declined by nearly 1.3 million students over the last two years.

In comparison to Florida’s other school districts, Polk has had the highest percentage of enrollments in Florida since the pandemic at 7% since 2019-2020 school year, she said.

The district has 41.1% Hispanic, 20.35% Black and 34% white students, Wyatt said. Those considered economically disadvantaged are at 78.8%.

Polk County Superintendent of Schools Frederick Heid and School Board member Sara Beth Wyatt spoke at the event. Heid said the district improved its third-grade reading scores last school year and more than doubled its A-graded schools. But he said the cost of building a new schools to relieve overcrowding is skyrocketing.
Polk County Superintendent of Schools Frederick Heid and School Board member Sara Beth Wyatt spoke at the event. Heid said the district improved its third-grade reading scores last school year and more than doubled its A-graded schools. But he said the cost of building a new schools to relieve overcrowding is skyrocketing.

Superintendent Frederick Heid said Polk improved its third-grade reading scores last school year and its A-graded schools doubled from three to seven. Only one school received an F grade.

He also spoke about the district’s efforts to improve its return on investment through improvements to its vehicle leasing program, building a lease-to-own school and restructuring bond debt, among several other initiatives.

He said he wants Polk to be on a funding parity with other districts through state legislative changes in the Florida Education Finance Program calculation. He said Senate Bill 2502, which would help achieve that, is pending in Tallahassee.

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Heid said the district's priorities include maintaining a strong workforce, improving school staffing and rezoning school boundaries, which could start this summer for high schools and middle schools. Elementary attendance boundaries could be adjusted next summer.

He said the school district has improved its workforce retention rate to from 56% to 82% in the past four years, in part because of a program put in place by the last superintendent.

Heid said the price of a new high school since the $110 million Davenport High School opened two years ago has skyrocketed. It would now cost between $135 million and $155 million for the next one, to serve families in the Haines City area.

A plea to improve access to health care

Dr. Joy Jackson, the director for the Florida Department of Health in Polk County, sounded alarms about infant mortality and drownings.

Dr. Joy Jackson, the director for the Florida Department of Health in Polk County, said the biggest killer in Polk County is heart disease, with cancer, injuries and strokes in that order as the remaining top causes of death.
Dr. Joy Jackson, the director for the Florida Department of Health in Polk County, said the biggest killer in Polk County is heart disease, with cancer, injuries and strokes in that order as the remaining top causes of death.

She said 63 infants died following a live birth in 2021, and Black infants were more than three times more likely to die before their first birthday. Of preventable causes of infant deaths, sleep-related suffocation can be avoided by placing a baby in a crib, alone and on its back, she said.

She said the biggest killer in Polk County is heart disease, with cancer, injuries and strokes in that order as the remaining top causes of death.

Jackson showed that minorities such as Hispanic women live the longest but Blacks die the youngest. She called on county leaders to improve access to health care in order to see gains in the population's overall health.

This article originally appeared on The Ledger: Growth issues dominate State of Polk County presentations