Minneapolis mayoral candidates have been locked in expensive fight to lead at critical moment

After months of impassioned debate over public safety and Minneapolis' future, residents are about to select their next mayor from a long slate of candidates who have been locked in an expensive fight to lead the city at a critical moment.

Mayor Jacob Frey has been making the case for a second term as 16 challengers are trying to unseat him. AJ Awed, Sheila Nezhad, Kate Knuth and Clint Conner have each raised tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars in the battle for the city's top post.

But voters may not know the outcome of the mayor's race on Election Day. On Tuesday night, ballot counting machines will tally the first-choice votes in the ranked-choice voting process. If none of the candidates reach the threshold needed to win in the first round, then the redistribution of votes will begin Wednesday.

This municipal election has drawn far more attention — and money — than a typical race. Minnesotans and people across the country will be watching to see whether the city where police killed George Floyd, and where violent crime has been on the rise, will opt to replace its Police Department.

In addition to selecting the next mayor, City Council members and other local leaders, Minneapolis residents will vote Tuesday on a proposal that could create a new public safety agency that would take a broad "public health approach" and would remove a requirement for the city to have a police department with a certain minimum number of officers.

If that proposal passes, the next mayor would have a key role in helping shape the public safety department. If it fails, the mayor will still need to navigate demands for police reform. Meanwhile, another controversial charter amendment on the ballot could change the city's structure to give the mayor more authority over city departments.

The debate over public safety has dominated the mayor's race. Frey, Awed and Conner have all said they oppose the charter amendment to replace the police department, while Nezhad and Knuth support it.

Nezhad and Knuth have partnered on a ranked-choice voting gambit that some have dubbed the "Don't Rank Frey" effort, in which they are encouraging voters to rank the two of them and leave the incumbent off their ballots.

Candidates have made their final door-knocking and campaign literature push over the past week, hoping to increase voter turnout in their favor. Nezhad and Knuth have continued to stress that the city is ready to head in a different direction.

"I announced my run for Mayor 305 days ago. I have been unwavering in my vision for the safety, housing, and justice we deserve — nothing less! Minneapolis, tomorrow we get to choose more safety, more justice," Nezhad tweeted Monday afternoon.

Knuth held a news conference with supporters Sunday in front of City Hall where she said Frey failed to lead the city after George Floyd's killing and the unrest that followed. In 1 1/2 years since then, as crime has spiked, "he has not shown us a path forward or has not engaged us in the work of charting that path forward together," Knuth said.

Frey has repeatedly defended his record, and said he has been meeting with residents and is confident he will win.

"What our city is looking for right now is a seriousness of governance," Frey said during a recent candidate debate on TPT's Almanac. "They are looking for a clear vision, they are looking for consistency of position, not flipping it back and forth. And is what I've offered even in some of the toughest of times."

The mayor's approval rating has fallen over the past year, according to a Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 Minnesota poll conducted in September. About one-third of poll participants said they had a favorable view of Frey, down from 50% in August 2020.

Nonetheless, he is in a strong financial position headed into Election Day.

The 17 mayoral candidates' campaigns have spent more than $1.4 million on the race this year, more than half of which was spent by the Frey campaign, according to campaign finance filings from last week. However, that tally does not show the full picture of spending on the heated race. Outside groups for or against the public safety charter amendment have also funneled dollars toward the candidates that align with their stances.