Mississippi State basketball vs Alabama: Scouting report, prediction
STARKVILLE — Javian Davis knows the challenge ahead of Mississippi State basketball.
After the forward watched as No. 25 Alabama battled No. 4 Auburn to a four-point loss Tuesday, he talked with some of his former Crimson Tide teammates. Those conversations tend to steer away from the hardwood, but they couldn’t avoid the upcoming matchup between Mississippi State and Alabama on Saturday (5 p.m., SEC Network).
“Those are my brothers, man,” said Davis, who transferred before last season. “We play the game together, we talk. Their parents are still cool with my mom; they pretty much talk every day.”
MOLINAR CAREER HIGH: Iverson Molinar scores career high as Mississippi State basketball separates from Georgia
TOLU SMITH OUT: Mississippi State basketball's Tolu Smith is out against Georgia, missing second game
Once the ball tips off, though, Davis will put aside those friendships for 40 minutes of action. The Bulldogs bounced back from a loss to Ole Miss with what turned into a comfortable 88-72 win against Georgia on Wednesday, but the Crimson Tide (11-5, 2-2 SEC) pose a prime opportunity for Mississippi State (11-4, 2-1) to improve its NCAA Tournament resume.
Here’s how Alabama and Mississippi State match up on the court.
Scoring down low
Mississippi State exposed Georgia’s interior defense — and the Bulldogs did it without forward Tolu Smith involved.
They scored a season-high 58 points in the paint, with guard Iverson Molinar driving the lane repeatedly because Georgia continually pressed him on the perimeter. Davis also chipped in 12 points while Andersson Garcia and Cameron Matthews added 10 points each.
“I would say 18 of (Molinar’s) 28 points were in the paint,” Mississippi State coach Ben Howland said. “He kept scoring in the paint, in the paint, in the paint. … We did a good job attacking in there.”
That will once again be a focus for Mississippi State. And the team could receive a further boost with Smith expected to return against Alabama — an addition that only deepens Mississippi State’s presence down low, given his 14.2 points and 7.8 rebounds across five games this season.
Howland said Friday that Smith tested negative and returned to practice. He's expected to play Saturday, but his minutes could be limited.
Mississippi State’s average rebound margin is 9.3, which ranks 11th in the country. Alabama’s rebound margin is much tighter, but its 12.9 offensive rebounds per game outpaces the Bulldogs.
The task won’t be as straightforward as it was against Georgia, with 7-foot center Charles Bediako to contend with. But for Mississippi State to pull off an upset, the paint will be a key area to control.
Free-scoring guards
Alabama pushes the pace in transition, ranking 26th in the country in adjusted tempo, according to KenPom’s advanced metrics. Mississippi State slots in at 313rd nationally.
The main contributors to the Crimson Tide’s speed are three high-scoring guards: Jaden Shackelford, Jahvon Quinerly and Keon Ellis. That trio each averages more than 12 points per game, with Shackelford’s 16.1 points leading the way.
The Bulldogs ability to defend the 3-point ball has been suspect lately, although while Ole Miss exploited that weakness, Georgia couldn’t knock down shots at the same rate. Alabama will put that defense to the test — the team has attempted (471) and made (151) more 3-pointers than any other SEC squad.
Molinar, Shakeel Moore and Rocket Watts received the bulk of the backcourt playing time Wednesday, although Cam Carter is the best defensive guard. Carter could find himself on the court in defensive duty against Quinerly or Shackelford if either of those two develops a hot hand.
Defensive intensity
Molinar said Wednesday showed how good Mississippi State can be when it turns its defensive intensity up another level. At times this year, that intensity has waned, allowing teams such as Ole Miss to build a commanding lead.
“All I want is effort for 40 minutes,” Howland said.
Entering their fourth SEC game this season, Mississippi State can’t afford to not be locked in for 40 minutes, especially against teams of Alabama’s caliber.
Prediction
Alabama 77, Mississippi State 71: Davis said he wasn’t hoping for bragging rights over his former teammates; instead, he just wants a quality win. Mississippi State could certainly complete an upset, but Alabama’s playmakers make that a difficult challenge, particularly if the Bulldogs come out as flat as they did in the previous two games.
The return of Smith could help, but he’s missed over a week of practice, which could limit his influence. And while Molinar poured in a career-high 28 points in his last outing, the Crimson Tide should be more wary of his ability to drive the lane than shoot 3-pointers, considering the junior is hitting just 29.5% of his long-range efforts this season.
This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Scouting report, score prediction: Mississippi State basketball vs Alabama
