Mississippi State football vs. Auburn: Scouting report, score prediction
STARKVILLE — It can be easy, in the midst of off-field drama this week, to forget Mississippi State football has a game against Auburn.
For some, it’s exciting to get away from discussing John Cohen’s departure to become Auburn’s athletic director and the firing of Auburn coach Bryan Harsin that followed. On Saturday (6:30 p.m., ESPN2), big hits, X's and O's and flashy plays finally come to the forefront.
“We’re ready to play football,” MSU receiver Austin Williams said. “That’s what we’re here for. Ready to roll.”
PURGE AND PAY:Mississippi State football coach Mike Leach makes pitch to next AD
DAK PRESCOTT:Why the MSU legend wants Will Rogers to break all his records
Mississippi State (5-3, 2-3 SEC), coming off an open date, is looking to snap a two-game skid. Auburn (3-5, 1-4) is looking to snap a four-game losing streak dating to late September.
For the Bulldogs, a season with hopes of eight or more wins is starting to dwindle. The final month will be telling.
“We’re looking at this as a four-game season, basically,” Williams said. “Fresh slate. Whatever good or bad happened in the past we’re putting that behind us to focus on this.”
Mississippi State offense vs. Auburn defense
The 23 points Mississippi State scored in its losses at Kentucky and Alabama marks the lowest combined output in back-to-back games since Mike Leach’s first season in 2020.
The Bulldogs only picked up 13 first downs at Kentucky. They allowed four sacks at Alabama. They combined for 84 rushing yards after running for 162 yards against Arkansas prior to the losing streak.
Mississippi State has gone away from what allowed it to average 38.5 points in its first six games: Establishing the run. In failing to do so, MSU struggled to build early leads and allowed opposing offenses to be more selective.
Auburn presents an opportunity to return to what worked.
The Tigers have the SEC’s worst rush defense, allowing 213 yards per game. With the Air Raid forcing Auburn’s defense to lean back, opportunities will be there for MSU’s running game to succeed.
Mississippi State defense vs. Auburn offense
MSU defensive coordinator Zach Arnett said his team’s best rushing defense has been Leach’s offense. By building early leads, teams are forced to give up on the run.
MSU’s offensive struggles exposed the Bulldogs’ rush defense at Kentucky. The Wildcats ran for 239 yards, creating some concern in Starkville.
Mississippi State responded in a major way, holding Alabama to 29 yards on 27 rushes.
“We really put an emphasis on trying to do better with our hands, trying to be better with our feet and trying to be more downhill because that’s the style of defense that we are,” defensive line coach Jeff Phelps said Wednesday. “We kind of got away from it. We hit the reset button.”
Auburn rushes for 183 yards per game. Tank Bigsby ranks sixth in the SEC with 73 rushing yards per contest.
“We’ve got our work cut out for us,” Phelps said. “It’s one of those deals where you can’t stop him, but you hope that you can slow him down just enough.”
Special teams
Mississippi State is tied with LSU and Vanderbilt for the SEC’s worst field goal percentage (62.5). The Bulldogs, despite their efforts in the transfer portal, have not gotten away from the kicking woes that haunted them last season.
Leach might come out of the open date with even more aggressiveness on fourth down.
Prediction
Mississippi State 35, Auburn 17: Mississippi State is a bad matchup for Auburn. The Bulldogs like to establish the run early, which shouldn’t be an issue against a struggling rush defense. MSU likes to build early leads and force opponents to get away from the run, which would be detrimental for Auburn’s offense. Mississippi State should cruise ahead of next week’s matchup with Georgia.
Stefan Krajisnik is the Mississippi State beat writer for the Clarion Ledger. Contact him at skrajisnik@gannett.com or follow him on Twitter @skrajisnik3.
This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Mississippi State football vs Auburn score prediction, scouting report
