Will Mississippi State football win Egg Bowl? Our game-by-game predictions

STARKVILLE — This season may be one of the toughest to predict in Mississippi State football history.

Mike Leach’s squad enters with the most returning starters in the SEC after winning seven games. However, the nation’s second toughest schedule awaits, according ESPN’s College Football Power Index.

Here’s how the Clarion Ledger predicts MSU’s 7-5 season.

DEPTH CHART: Projecting Mississippi State football's two-deep 

FACT OR FICTION: Confirming or debunking MSU's preseason narratives

Sept. 3: vs. Memphis

Last season: Memphis won, 31-29. The Tigers went 6-6.

The buzz: Last year's meeting in Memphis was one of the uglier games for Mississippi State in all three phases and poor officiating didn’t help. Yet the Bulldogs nearly won. An experienced team, which Mississippi State has, likely wins last season and will handle business to open this year.

The pick: Mississippi State wins, 31-10.

Sept. 10: at Arizona

Last season: Did not play. Arizona went 1-11.

The buzz: Leach’s return to Pac-12 After Dark is bound to be entertaining. Arizona might be the worst Power Five team, but this environment early in the season could create some craziness which allows the Wildcats to hang around until late — very late for those not on Mountain Time.

The pick: Mississippi State wins, 35-24

Sept. 17: at LSU

Last season: LSU won, 28-25. The Tigers went 6-7.

The buzz: This is where MSU’s season really starts. It's a night game in Death Valley where both teams could enter at 2-0. Special teams proved costly for Mississippi State last season in Starkville. With a new coaching staff for the Tigers and an experienced group for the Bulldogs, playing this game early is best-case for MSU.

The pick: Mississippi State wins, 24-17.

Sept. 24: vs. Bowling Green

Last season: Did not play. Bowling Green went 4-8.

The buzz: This will be a nice break between grueling SEC games. Expect the Bulldogs to come out hot early and allow for backup quarterback Sawyer Robertson and the second unit to take the load in the latter half.

The pick: Mississippi State wins, 35-10

Oct. 1: vs. Texas A&M

Last season: Mississippi State won 26-22. Texas A&M went 8-4.

The buzz: If State is 4-0, and likely ranked, it’ll be hyped up nationally. That means Texas A&M won’t let MSU fly under the radar just because the Aggies travel to Tuscaloosa the following week. Texas A&M’s defense will keep it close until the Aggies win late.

The pick: Texas A&M wins, 24-21.

Oct. 8: vs. Arkansas

Last season: Arkansas won, 31-28. The Razorbacks went 9-4.

The buzz: Arkansas has had MSU’s number the last two seasons. Last year’s matchup was where MSU’s kicking struggles hit the fan. This core of MSU juniors (Will Rogers, Jaden Walley, Emmanuel Forbes) won’t let their careers start with an 0-3 mark against the Razorbacks.

The pick: Mississippi State wins, 28-27

Oct. 15: at Kentucky

Last season: Mississippi State won, 31-17. Kentucky went 10-3.

The buzz: The battle of the Wills (Rogers and UK quarterback Will Levis) could produce fireworks, though the Wildcats should have star running back Chris Rodriguez back from a suspension by this point. In a meeting of experienced squads, the home team gets the edge here.

The pick: Kentucky wins, 30-24.

Oct. 22: at Alabama

Last season: Alabama won, 49-9. The Crimson Tide went 13-2.

The buzz: Perhaps as important as winning games is for Mississippi State, it needs to find a way to show up against Alabama. This matchup between schools located less than 100 miles apart has been one-sided since Nick Saban took the helm in 2007. MSU hasn’t scored a touchdown against Alabama since Leach arrived. Consider 17 points a win.

The pick: Alabama wins, 38-17

Nov. 5: vs. Auburn

Last season: Mississippi State won, 43-34. Auburn went 6-7.

The buzz: After a historic comeback win at Auburn, Mississippi State’s season went downward, with losses in two of the final three games. However, MSU regained momentum heading into this season with its experience, and Auburn’s offseason was messy. The Tigers’ season could be equally as ugly, giving the Bulldogs another big win heading into the homestretch of the season.

The pick: Mississippi State wins, 38-24.

Nov. 12: vs. Georgia

Last season: Did not play. Georgia went 14-1.

The buzz: Mississippi State’s trip to Athens in 2020 featured a roster diminished by COVID-19, and MSU still nearly won. State, like in the Alabama game, could keep things close going into the second half. In our bold predictions, we had MSU winning this game. But in more modest predictions, the visiting Bulldogs hold on in Starkville.

The pick: Georgia wins, 30-17

Nov. 19: vs. East Tennessee State

Last season: Did not play. ETSU went 11-2.

The buzz: ETSU is about as good of an FCS program featured on the SEC slate. The Buccaneers beat Vanderbilt by 20 last season. This could be closer than expected heading into the second half, but MSU should pull away.

The pick: Mississippi State wins, 38-10.

Nov. 24: at Ole Miss

Last season: Ole Miss won, 31-21. The Rebels went 10-3.

The buzz: Ole Miss, like LSU, is a team Mississippi State would rather play early. The Rebels will have time to mesh with their new roster by Thanksgiving. Leach hasn’t won an Egg Bowl against Lane Kiffin, so the Rebels get the edge until something changes.

The pick: Ole Miss wins, 28-27.

Stefan Krajisnik is the Mississippi State beat writer for the Clarion Ledger. Contact him at skrajisnik@gannett.com or follow him on Twitter @skrajisnik3. 

This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Mississippi State football schedule 2022: Predictions for every game