Mississippi State vs Ole Miss men's basketball: Scouting report, score prediction
STARKVILLE — In the immediate aftermath of both recent losses for Mississippi State and Ole Miss men’s basketball, the conclusion was similar. Coaches Ben Howland and Kermit Davis knew their teams didn’t play well enough.
The frustration was especially clear from Howland, who watched the Bulldogs blow a seven-point advantage with under eight minutes to play against Florida on Wednesday, fumbling a potential résumé-building win. The Rebels, meanwhile, were dominated from start to finish against Missouri on Tuesday, and Davis had enough time to resign himself to the disappointment before meeting with the media.
For both, though, turning the page became the rallying cry. And the Bulldogs and Rebels will attempt to do so against each other, meeting at Humphrey Coliseum on Saturday (3 p.m., SEC Network).
BLOWOUT: Ole Miss men's basketball looks helpless in loss vs Missouri
LOSING LATE: With Iverson Molinar muted in second half, Mississippi State basketball loses to Florida
LAST MEETING: How Mississippi State basketball, without Tolu Smith, doomed itself against Ole Miss on Saturday
Ole Miss (9-8, 1-4 SEC) is mired in a three-game losing streak, and Mississippi State (12-5, 3-2) will look to avenge its 82-72 loss two weeks ago in Oxford.
“Just going into practice with our heads held high, ready to get back to it,” Bulldogs guard Shakeel Moore said. “We’ve got a quick turnaround Saturday, and our main focus is that game. I feel like we need to have a good, hard practice to prepare for that.”
Garrison Brooks’ importance
Florida’s game plan revolved around limiting the number of touches guard Iverson Molinar received, banking on his Mississippi State teammates not picking up the scoring slack. The plan worked.
While Moore scored 18 and forward Tolu Smith scored all 17 of his points in the second half, Molinar’s first points in the final period came with 47 seconds left. The answer wasn’t Molinar forcing more shots; instead, Mississippi State needed to move the ball better without Molinar leading the way, and forward Garrison Brooks should take a larger offensive role.
After he produced his best game with Mississippi State against Alabama — scoring 16 points with 10 rebounds — Brooks was an understudy at best against the Gators. He took three shots, making each, and pulled in just two rebounds.
“Garrison only taking three shots is crazy,” Howland said. “He’s got to take more shots than that. He’s got to be aggressive and look to shoot when he gets the ball. We need him to get more opportunity to take more shots.”
When Brooks and Smith are both threats offensively, Mississippi State’s offense is more well-balanced. When Molinar needs to carry the load — and is prevented from doing so by stout defense — the output lags.
1-3-1 zone
The Rebels rotated through lineups against Missouri, trying to find a combination that worked. Some offered momentary sparks, but all sputtered out sooner rather than later.
Because of that rotation, Davis was forced to mostly stay away from the 1-3-1 zone defense Ole Miss primarily employs. The “toughness” in mastering the zone is especially felt when two of the best players are sidelined with injuries; guard Jarkel Joiner (back) is out six weeks and forward Robert Allen (torn ACL) is out for the season.
The man defense was as affective, allowing the Tigers to drive the lane and finish in the paint. But if Ole Miss can return to the 1-3-1 zone against Mississippi State, it could be a boost. It has the potential of taking Molinar out of the game, doubling him near the perimeter and closing down penetration opportunities.
3-point shooting
The last time these two teams met on Jan. 8, Matthew Murrell led Ole Miss to a 82-72 win behind his five 3-pointers and 31 points.
The Rebels converted on 47.8% of their 3-pointers while Mississippi State hit just 18.8% of its attempts.
That production was an outlier for the Rebels; they’ve knocked down no higher than 32% of their long-range attempts over their next three losses. But the Bulldogs’ inability from deep has been ongoing for much of the season, continuing with 12.5% against Alabama and just four makes against Florida.
That could prove to be a difference maker on Saturday once again — if Ole Miss can shoot at a high rate from deep, Mississippi State won’t keep up.
Prediction
Mississippi State 75, Ole Miss 69: Both teams are coming off a disappointing game — although Ole Miss has felt that for three straight losses. With Smith back involved after missing the matchup in Oxford, Mississippi State could have the advantage inside, making up for perimeter shooting deficiencies.
This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Mississippi State vs Ole Miss basketball: Score prediction, scouting report
