Will the Missouri Tigers defeat Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl? Game prediction & keys

The Cotton Bowl stands between Missouri football and one of the best seasons, perhaps, in program history.

The Tigers, taking on perennial blue blood Ohio State, will have every chance to finish the 2023 season by proving they belong, fulfilling their manta of “Something To Prove” this season.

Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. Central on Friday, Dec. 29. Missouri (+3) is a three-point underdog with the over/under set at 48.5 points.

Here are three predictions, as well as a score projection, for the Cotton Bowl.

Kris Abrams-Draine shows out in Mizzou career finale

Ennis Rakestraw will miss the Cotton Bowl with an injury, but the other side of Missouri’s star cornerback combo should be available.

Kris Abrams-Draine, playing against arguably the best wide receiver duo in America in Marvin Harrison Jr. (if he plays) and Emeka Egbuka, will have to match their level. He’ll do exactly that.

The expectation is that Abrams-Draine will depart Missouri this offseason after developing from a wide receiver to one of the best cornerbacks in the SEC. He was a semifinalist for the Bednarik Award, given to college football’s Outstanding Defensive Player of the Year.

The Spanish Fort product led Missouri this season with 11 pass breakups and four interceptions. With a standout game on the biggest stage of the season, Abrams-Draine can massively boost his NFL Draft profile.

Cody Schrader breaks Tyler Badie’s Mizzou rushing record

Of all the storylines in college football this season, Missouri produced one of the best with Cody Schrader’s incredible year.

He finished seventh in the Heisman voting. He won the Burlsworth Trophy. He was a key figure in MU’s biggest wins.

We expect him to put the cherry on top of his college and MU career deep in the heart of Texas.

So far, Schrader has 1,489 rushing yards. With another standout game, he can break Missouri’s single-season rushing record that Tyler Badie set two years ago.

That record is 1,604 yards. Schrader needs 115 yards to tie the record.

This season, Schrader has averaged 124 rushing yards per game. If the law of averages tells us anything, it’s that Schrader has a good chance to break that record. We expect that to happen.

Missouri’s offensive MVP will come through the air

There have been plenty of breakout players for Missouri this season. They’ve all led MU to its best season in more than a decade.

The Cotton Bowl MVP will be one of those players. Specifically, it will be the player who kickstarted this breakout season with his commitment in 2021.

For the Tigers to challenge the Buckeyes, Luther Burden will need to play his best game ... or close to it. He’s proven he can show up on the biggest stages and is well over 1,000 receiving yards this season.

Burden has displayed he can do it all. He can block. He can take the ball on designed runs. Best of all, he can make any catch possible.

High-pointed catches, back-shoulder grabs, contested snags and everything in between, Burden has made those plays. Against Ohio State, he’ll go up against the talented Denzel Burke, but the onus is on Burke to limit Burden.

If the offense clicks with plenty of explosive plays, expect Burden to be the one making them.

Cotton Bowl game prediction: Mizzou vs. OSU

Missouri will be down two starters, but the Tigers will have more depth thanks to the transfer portal exits. If this season has proved anything, it’s that Missouri has the talent and presence of mind to keep up with some of the best in the country.

Even in rare losses to LSU and Georgia, MU showed its mettle keeping up with those two teams. It should be able to keep up with Ohio State.

If this game comes down to the Tigers’ defense, it’s hard to bet against Missouri.

The pick: Missouri 34, Ohio State 30

The Star has partnered with the Columbia Daily Tribune for coverage of Missouri Tigers athletics.