Is the Mitch McConnell era coming to a close?

When Kentucky Sen, Mitch McConnell (R) last ran for reelection in 2020, he handily defeated Democratic challenger Amy McGrath by nearly 20 points in a stunning display of the political clout that has made McConnell an institution in both his home state and the United States Senate as a whole. Just three years later, however, McConnell's seemingly impenetrable fiefdom appears on significantly shakier ground; the man whose senatorial impact and legacy rivals even that of Lyndon Johnson now finds himself increasingly at odds with his own party as it continues to transform into an extension — both politically and culturally — of former President Donald Trump.

Making his 28th appearance at Kentucky's annual St. Jerome Fancy Farm Picnic this weekend, McConnell was met with a cacophonous barrage of boos, shouted allegations that he'd "lost the Senate," and ongoing calls to "retire," even as he tried in vain to tell picnic-goers that "it's not hard for Republicans to look good these days."

The episode quickly went viral online, boosted in part by Trump himself, who shared a clip of McConnell's speech, complete with a transcription of the crowd's "BOOOOO—RETIRE, RETIRE, RETIRE—BOOOOO!!!" chant, on his Truth Social platform. "I AGREE!" Trump added, making absolutely clear where he stands on the issue of McConnell's senate tenure. That the incident occurred just days after McConnell inexplicably froze mid-sentence during a GOP press conference — itself just months after McConnell was discharged from a hospital after suffering a concussion from a recent fall — only served to heighten the sense that this onetime lion of the Senate might be facing his final act as a Republican leader. But is the McConnell era truly coming to a close, or will he weather this latest turbulence and continue leading his party for the foreseeable future?

What are the commentators saying?

"Speculation about McConnell's future has become more common" following his fall this past Spring, CNN reported, noting that despite warm applause when he first appeared at the Fancy Farm Picnic, "some voters expressed some concern about how his health will affect his ability to continue serving in the Senate." McConnell's "speech has sounded more halting in recent weeks, prompting questions among some of his colleagues about his health," according to The Associated Press. After his press-conference freeze-up, "a number of pro-Trump conservative media figures and activists, who have long despised the Senate minority leader, called for [McConnell's] immediate resignation," Vanity Fair said, adding that despite McConnell's vow to complete his term and tenure as Republican senate leader, his "obvious frailty means that a retirement or retreat from Senate leadership is certainly a possibility."

While the Associated Press said that the chorus of boos during McConnell's speech originated with Democrats in the audience, the fact that those in attendance chanted accused him of having "lost" the Senate highlights the bipartisan frustration with the longtime GOP leader, with the predictably Democratic opprobrium buttressed by a growing conservative bloc of Trump-influenced conservatives. Just before McConnell's speech this weekend, the former president called his onetime ally "perhaps the worst leader in the history of our country," alleging that "they've got something on Mitch McConnell."

For his part, McConnell "stuck to his script" during his speech, the New York Post reported, adding that he conspicuously "did not acknowledge" Trump's comments. Nevertheless, while his influence is unmatched across the GOP, Trump is not the only Republican who has publicly called for McConnell to step down: late last month former UN ambassador and current Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley also called McConnell out by name during a CBS interview, where she encouraged him to "know when to walk away" as part of a broader call for electoral term limits.

What's next?

To date, McConnell has publicly denied any plans to heed the calls for his retirement, saying in a statement last month that he intends to "serve his full term" as Senate minority leader, which his colleagues "overwhelmingly elected him to do." Still, the nexus of health concerns, with the steady flow of threats from the current Republican presidential front-runner has put McConnell in as vulnerable a position as he has ever been. Were he to retire, or find himself incapacitated while in office, a 2021 bill passed over the objections of Democratic Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear would require a fellow Republican to fill his seat, ensuring no change in the balance of partisan power in the Senate. What could change, however, is the balance of power within the GOP itself. Senators John Cornyn (R-Texas), Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wy.), and Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) are each seen as "possible contenders to be McConnell's successor," according to Vox, which pointed out that "all three have at times sought to keep their distance" from Trump of late. Still, McConnell's absence would create a "power vacuum" in the Senate, which in turn could lead to "an opening for the MAGA wing of the party to grow its influence."

While his recent health concerns may have exacerbated calls for a change within the party, McConnell's once solid-seeming support showed cracks as early as this past midterm election, when — after losing the Senate majority to the Democrats — he faced an insurgent effort by Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) to oust him as GOP leader. While Scott's effort ultimately only garnered 10 votes from fellow Republicans, it was a sign of shifting winds within the party. "My criticisms following the last election loss are well known," Sen. Josh Hawley, one of Scott's supporters, told Vanity Fair. "I think we need a different approach…but I don't want that to be taken as a dig against his health, at all."

"I'm against older candidates, the current president, Mitch McConnell," one attendee at this weekend's picnic told CNN. "I think that they've run their course in politics, I think they'd be good for backing people now. But I think politics now is more of a young man's game." In spite of those headwinds, though, McConnell himself seemed nothing but confident, telling picnic attendees that "this is my 28th Fancy Farm and I want to assure you it's not my last."

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