Friday night MLB DFS is here, and that means a full slate of games to choose from.
As always, be sure to remember the heavy variance that comes with baseball and to be very aware of your bankroll management. Additionally, the RotoGrinders MLB lineups page and push notifications are the best way to get all team lineups in a timely manner.
Jacob deGrom is the stud on the slate but I’m going to save a few dollars and go with José Berrios in my lineups. The matchup is simply too good to pass up on. Detroit is running a terrible lineup out there these days and their cumulative strikeout rate this season against right-handers is 25.1%. They have five projected batters in this lineup that strikeout 28.8% of the time or more. Berrios has fallen off a bit since being a dominator early in the season, but the 4.23 xFIP is still a decent number. His 22.7% strikeout rate is a bit deceptive, as he can be terrifying when his pitches are on point.
Others to Consider: Jacob DeGrom, Eduardo Rodriguez
Catcher/ First Base
Travis d’Arnaud (vs. Baltimore Orioles)
I’m looking at this Tampa Bay lineup trying to figure out a way I can get some good exposure to the slate high 6.6 team total they have. If I am going strictly by the numbers than the best hitter in this lineup against left-handed pitching is going to surprise you. Travis d’Arnaud is sporting a .274 ISO against left-handed pitching this season, the highest on the team. He also has a 44% hard-hit rate and is only striking out 21.8% of the time. He leads the team with a 44% flyball rate against left-handed pitching. Not only is this a fantastic play in general terms, but when you factor in the ownership it becomes sensational. Nobody wants to stick a catcher in that C/1B spot on FanDuel, so the Tampa Bay slugger will go drastically under owned.
In what has become standard these days, the Houston Astros check in with a 5.7 implied run total tonight one of the highest on the slate. They take on left-hander José Suarez in Minute Maid Park tonight. Suarez has been more susceptible to right-handed hitting having given up a .278 ISO against them this year to go along with a low 18.3% strikeout rate. We almost can’t go wrong with anybody in this Astros lineup but José Altuve’s numbers absolutely stand out. Against left-handed pitching this year he has a phenomenal .388 ISO and an incredible 88.8% contact rate. He just doesn’t strikeout very much against left-handed pitching and he hits the ball hard. He’s the number one option for a raw projection at this position in my opinion tonight.
Getting lost in this terrible season for Seattle is that they have a few hitters in this lineup who are pretty respectable. Kyle Seager is one of them. Against right-handers this season Seager has produced a .211 ISO and a 40.2% hard-hit rate while limiting his soft contact rate to an unbelievable 6.8%. Opposing right-hander Trent Thornton has been below average this year sporting a 5.18 xFIP and 9.5% walk rate. He gives up hard contact at a 35.6% rate. With Las Vegas sticking a 4.8 implied run total on Seattle, they are telling us they expect the Mariners to be able to score some runs in this matchup tonight.
Alex Bregman (vs. Los Angeles Angels)
We’ve already talked about how José Suarez struggles against right-handed hitting, and the Astros represent one of the higher implied run totals tonight, so let’s get another right-hander from this lineup on our roster. Alex Bregman is having a great season for the Astros and has been smashing against left-handed pitching again this year. He walks just as much as he strikes out against left-handers and has produced a .325 ISO this season against them to go along with a 48.5% hard-hit rate. He checks all the boxes on our stats tonight and his opposing pitcher has been significantly worse against right-handed hitters than left-handed hitters. The Astros make for a fantastic stack anyway you cut it tonight, but the price tag is so high that if you only looking for a two-man combination then Altuve and Bregman are the ones who stand out for me.
Others to Consider: Francisco Lindor, Jorge Polanco
Christian Yelich (vs. Arizona Diamondbacks)
If you have enough money for one luxury spend tonight, then might I suggest Christian Yelich. Milwaukee is at home taking on a right-hander tonight that has only managed to strike out 15.6% of the left-handed batters he’s faced this year. The hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters for Merrill Kelly sits at a preposterous 46.8%. Meanwhile, looking up and down this Milwaukee lineup it’s clear that the reigning MVP is your best prospect against right-handed hitting. He has a .393 ISO, .500 wOBA, 53.1% hard-hit rate and 14.3% walk rate against right-handed pitching this year. His skill set is unquestioned, and this is a great matchup tonight.
Dexter Fowler (vs. Colorado Rockies)
I definitely wanted to get a piece of this Cardinals lineup against Peter Lambert. The 5.2 implied run total is nice, although I think it is even a touch low. My initial reaction was Marcell Ozuna and his fantastic numbers this year, but I really like to attack Lambert with a left-hander. Lambert has been bad in general but against left-handers he’s struggled immensely. He’s allowed a .261 ISO, 48% hard-hit rate while only striking out 15.4% of the left-handers he faces. One of the guys who are projected to hit high in this lineup tonight is Dexter Fowler, a switch hitter that has heated-up down the stretch. Against left-handed pitching this season he has a .344 wOBA, 10.5% walk rate and 41.3% hard-hit rate. This St. Louis lineup is a prime candidate to stack tonight but I think my favorite one-off is the very affordable Dexter Fowler, who you can roster for only $3,100 on FanDuel and $4,200 on DraftKings.
Others to Consider: Tommy Pham, Marcell Ozuna