I hope everyone enjoyed the All-Star break, as tonight we have a massive 15-game MLB slate with a lot of great hitting options to go through.
We don't have a lot of high-end pitching options tonight, so I'm leaning on Buehler over Lance Lynn right now. Buehler has a 3.13 xFIP with a 27.4 percent strikeout rate and a 3.4 percent walk rate on the season. While this isn't the best ballpark or matchup, there is still plenty of upside for the righty. The Phillies projected starting lineup has a 21.2 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, and five of those hitters have a strikeout rate over 23.5 percent. Buehler does give up a lot of hard contact, which means he could potentially give up a home run or two, but he should be able to make it up with strikeouts.
Allen looked really good in his first start, decent in his second start, and awful in his third start. I don't think there is anything safe about playing him in this spot, but I do think this is a great situation for him to get back on track. The Miami Marlins rank 30th in wOBA and wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season. Additionally, pitching in this ballpark should help the risk with home runs, and Allen has yet to allow a home run to a right-handed hitter. He also has a 3.69 xFIP with a .321 wOBA against right-handed hitters, and the projected lineup for the Marlins tonight has seven right-handed hitters.
Josh Phegley vs. Seattle Mariners
Phegley has lost his everyday catching gig but should draw the start against a left-handed pitcher tonight. Marco Gonzales has struggled this season and comes in with a 5.35 xFIP against right-handed hitters. In 2017 and 2018, he had a ground ball rate over 43 percent against righties, but this season it’s down to 36 percent along with a 42.7 percent fly ball rate. Meanwhile, Phegley has a .242 ISO with a .835 OPS against left-handed pitching this season. He's cheap on DraftKings because he's not playing every day, and as I've mentioned before, I always like to spend down at catcher.
I don't know what has gotten into the Giants, but they have been hitting the ball so well recently, and they draw a great matchup tonight against right-handed Peter Lambert. The Rockies starter has a .458 wOBA with a .423 ISO and a 53.7 percent hard-hit rate in 57 PAs against left-handed hitters this season. With Belt hitting leadoff, I'm going to pay up for him as much as possible in this matchup. He has a .205 ISO with a 50 percent fly ball rate and a 40.3 percent hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. There is a lot of upside for a hitter like Belt when he's not playing at home.
Scooter Gennett @ Chicago Cubs
Scooter is off to a slow start since returning from injury before the All-Star break, but remember, he posted a .194 ISO with a .376 wOBA and a 38.2 percent hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching last season. With his slow start, his price has come down on DraftKings, so I think he's a great value option in this spot. Cubs starter Alec Mills has a 5.38 xFIP with a 1.69 HR/9 in AAA this season, and while he does have some strikeout upside, I like the upside of Gennett at this price point.
Vlad Guerrero Jr. @ Boston Red Sox
For some odd reason, the Boston Red Sox traded for Andrew Cashner. He draws the start tonight, and I like the right-handed hitters against him here, as Cashner has a .355 wOBA with a .205 ISO with only a 13.6 percent strikeout rate against righties this season. Vlad got the day off on Monday after a weak series against the Yankees over the weekend. We know the raw power he has, and with a low strikeout pitcher on the hill, I like his upside in this matchup.
Brandon Crawford @ Colorado Rockies
I hate writing up hitters in Coors, but the game has a 14.5 implied run total, and Lambert has allowed nine home runs in 29.2 innings. His 3.65 HR/9 against lefties is why I particularly like these left-handed hitters. Crawford has eight home runs on the season, and six of those have come on the road. He also has a 44.1 percent hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. I'm hoping the .131 ISO with a .285 wOBA against righties scares some people off him.
Christian Yelich vs. Atlanta Braves
Yelich has been a top three hitter this season and draws an excellent matchup at home. Bryse Wilson has struggled with left-handed hitters in a small sample, and Yelich has a .405 ISO with a .504 wOBA and a 56.4 percent hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. With the price the way it is, and so many top-tier options on this slate, we could see Yelich around 10-15 percent owned tonight.
Kyle Schwarber vs. Cincinnati Reds
I play Schwarber way too much, but I love this spot for him. Anthony DeSclafani has a .410 wOBA with a .282 ISO against left-handed hitters this season. He also has a 49.3 percent fly ball rate with a 49.6 percent hard-hit rate against lefties. He does have a decent strikeout rate, which is the only thing that concerns me in this spot. That said, Schwarber has a .247 ISO with a .350 wOBA and a 93.8 average exit velocity against right-handed pitching. He's under $4,000 on DraftKings, which makes him a really nice value option over there.