MLB DFS Bargains: Monday 9/16

Brad Johnson

Welcome to MLB DFS Bargains. We’ll split the analysis into three groups: very cheap, mid-tier, and expensive. A greater emphasis will be placed on the lower end of the price scale.

Please note, these player picks were organized early in the day. For MLB contests, always check lineups and weather closer to game time. Rain, wind, or unexpected managerial decisions could open up additional sources of value. Be sure to keep an eye on the MLB Headlines and Injuries desk.

Editor’s Note: Stay ahead of the competition from wire to wire with rankings, customizable projections, trade evaluator, exclusive columns and more in our Season Pass. And start using optimized lineups with our DFS Toolkit!

Seven games are on the docket this evening.

DIRT CHEAP BARGAINS

Pablo Lopez – SP – Miami Marlins (at Diamondbacks)

Lopez is an extremely risky play. He’ll probably earn you a profit at his bargain basement price tag, but there is downside for a disastrous outing. In fact, since returning from the injured list, he’s recorded a luck neutral 7.91 ERA. He’s struggling with home runs and too few strikeouts. His velocity, stuff, and command appear to be right in line with his pre-injury norms, leading me to believe we can overlook his recent performance on a speculative basis. The Diamondbacks are a roughly neutral opponent. Lopez projects to record around 5.5 strikeouts in a little under six innings of work.

Seth Brown – OF – Oakland Athletics (vs Glenn Sparkman)

Shockingly, Brown has performed reasonably well (.385/.439/.596) through 57 plate appearances without hitting a home run. It’s a shock because he was among the minor league leaders. In Triple-A, he hit 37 home runs in 500 plate appearances. Brown is comfortably firing hammered line drives. It’s only a matter of time before he runs into one. Or more!

Zack Collins – C – Chicago White Sox (at Jose Berrios)

The difference between a top roster and a merely decent one can be a cheap catcher with a home run. Although he has a challenging matchup against Berrios, Collins is one of the best bets to go yard in the bargain catcher category. He’s a disciplined hitter with a little too much swing-and-miss in his game, adding downside risk against a strikeout pitcher like Berrios. However, he also makes a surplus of pulled, fly ball contact which is why he’s somebody to try for an inexpensive homer.

Josh Rojas – OF – Arizona Diamondbacks (vs Pablo Lopez)

Through 102 plate appearances, Rojas is so close to meaningful contributions. His plate discipline is unquestioned, but he could probably benefit from a little more selective aggression to cut down on his unnecessarily high strikeout rate. Rojas has potential to deliver multiple hits, a home run, or even steal a base. He typically bats second, fifth, or sixth in the lineup all of which are good for run production opportunities.

Also Consider: Ryan McBroom, Pat Valaika, Isan Diaz, Ryan O’Hearn, Ryan Zimmerman, Garrett Hampson

MID-TIER MUST PLAYS

Matt Chapman – 3B – Oakland Athletics (vs Glenn Sparkman)

Sparkman and the Royals bullpen are perhaps the most obvious stacking target outside of Denver. However, since there is a Coors game in play, semi-expensive players like Chapman might be under-rostered. Chapman offers one of the best combinations of floor and ceiling in the slate. He projects for one-quarter of a home run, will probably walk, and could slug multiple hits against a weak opponent. Lately, he’s been batting second or third in the order. Either spot is excellent for run production.

Also Consider: Wilson Ramos, Ian Desmond, Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Nimmo, Juan Soto

HIGH PRICED VALUES

Pete Alonso – 1B – New York Mets (at Antonio Senzatela)

Most of the notable players at Coors Field are expensive. Alonso is the priciest player in the contest, and he’s also one of the top values. He projects for roughly 45 percent of a home run which is just a flat-out ridiculous opportunity. Rostering a full Mets stack could prove a challenge due to their across-the-board high prices. Still, it’s worth squeezing as many as you can into your lineup.

If you want to play the other side, Nolan Arenado has video game numbers against southpaws at Coors Field.

Also Consider: Robbie Ray, Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado