$600 million? Shohei Ohtani is on track for the biggest contract in MLB history

Shohei Ohtani added another unprecedented bulletpoint to his resume Wednesday, becoming the first player in Major League Baseball history called for a pitch clock violation as both a pitcher and a batter in the Angels’ win over the Seattle Mariners.

It’s not the kind of history the star takes the field to make. But it was another subtle reminder of a fact that somehow remains downplayed: Ohtani being an elite two-way player at the big league level is absurd. He is one of the best pitchers and one of the best hitters in the majors. He throws the ball harder, hits the ball farther, and runs faster than almost everybody else. Five years ago, when he arrived from Japan, the thought of such dominance was laughable. Now it’s normal.

Soon we’ll find out what the industry believes his unparalleled skill set is worth.

Ohtani is slated to become a free agent after this season. Friday’s home opener in Anaheim could be the last one with him in an Angels uniform. He’ll hit the market at 29 years old, in his prime, expecting to set another record: the richest contract in North American professional sports. At least that’s the consensus around the industry, from team executives and agents to coaches and players.

So, how much money will a team commit to Ohtani next winter?

One major league official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because tampering rules forbid him from discussing prospective free agents on other teams, said he believed the bidding would start at $500 million and reach $600 million. One agent predicted Ohtani will sign a 12-year, $600-million deal. Spotrac, a website that focuses on sports contracts, recently revealed contract valuations for Ohtani: Eight years, $230 million as a pitcher and 10 years, $333 million as a hitter. Combined: $563 million.

Mike Trout’s 12-year, $426.5-million contract extension is the biggest in major league history. Ohtani should easily eclipse his teammate's record.

“He's such a unicorn that I don't know if he's going to ever have anybody compared to him in all of baseball history,” Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw said. “He's such a unicorn. I expect him to get the highest contract ever, for sure. I think that's a foregone conclusion at this point.”

Ohtani has been a massive bargain to this point. MLB rules stipulate that had Ohtani waited until he was 25 to come to the majors, he would have been a true free agent on the open market. League executives estimated he could have received a $200-million contract.

But Ohtani was 23 when he left Japan so he was limited to fitting into a club’s international signing bonus pool and being under club control for six seasons. The Angels gave him a $2.315-million signing bonus in December 2017. He was paid just $9.695 million over his first five seasons. Somehow the Angels still haven’t made the postseason. This season, he’ll make $30 million in addition to the reported $40 million he’ll receive through endorsement deals.

Ohtani provides a franchise not only superstar talent, but a potential revenue stream from Japan where he is one of the country’s most famous celebrities. As of last season, the Angels generated roughly $10 million per year in Ohtani-related stadium advertising and marketing agreements. The combination means Ohtani won’t have a shortage of deep-pocketed suitors to manufacture a bidding war next winter.

The Dodgers carefully allocated their resources during the offseason to prepare for Ohtani next winter. The San Francisco Giants are desperate for a franchise cornerstone after failing to secure Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa. The New York Mets and the San Diego Padres are always willing to spend. The New York Yankees are looming.

“Whatever people guess the price is, I tell them it’s higher,” a team executive said.

The Angels, meanwhile, don’t plan to move Ohtani before the trade deadline no matter how far behind they fall for a playoff spot, according to a person with knowledge of the situation.

“There's a certain amount of money that a team is willing to spend before it feels like it hurts them financially,” Kershaw said. “As long as they think Ohtani's going to bring in the revenue, and he does, right? From overseas or all the different things. So that number is really high. But, you know, is it a billion dollars? No. Is it $100 million? It's way more than that. So there's not really a realm to go off.”

Kershaw, a former union representative for the Dodgers, was once atop the pay scale at his position. The seven-year, $215-million contract extension he signed in January 2014 was the largest contract ever for a pitcher. For good reason. Kershaw was coming off his second of three Cy Young Awards. He’s arguably the best pitcher of his generation.

Ohtani hasn’t reached Kershaw’s heights as a pitcher, but he’s elite on the mound. Last season, he ranked sixth across the majors in FanGraphs WAR for pitchers, finishing ahead of All-Stars Max Fried, Shane Bieber and Corbin Burnes. As a hitter, Ohtani finished 16th in wRC+ — an all-encompassing offensive metric. All-Stars Rafael Devers, Andrés Giménez and José Ramirez ranked below him.

Ohtani improved as a pitcher in 2022 but was a more productive batter during his 2021 MVP season. He appears on track to surmount both seasons in 2023 after shining for Japan during its World Baseball Classic championship run last month. He concluded the tournament by striking out Trout in one of the rare made-for-TV moments baseball has orchestrated in recent memory, leaving no doubt that he is the best player in the world.

On Monday, Ohtani clubbed his second home run in two games, a 431-foot two-run blast that traveled 110 mph off the bat against the Mariners.

On Wednesday, he labored on the mound over the first three innings, unable to unearth his typical fastball command in his second start of the season. So he adjusted, utilizing his off-speed arsenal more than usual to hold the Mariners to one run over six innings.

Ohtani threw 111 pitches. He went one for two with two walks and an RBI. He was the game’s main protagonist. It’s a role he’ll assume most days for the Angels this season. Keeping him around beyond that could cost them $600 million — if not more.

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.