Mo and Co headed to baseball’s winter meetings. What moves are next for the Cardinals?

For the last four months, with only minor interruptions, the chorus of voices representing the St. Louis Cardinals sang out a song of desire – they required three starting pitchers, and that would be their goal for the winter.

As of this past Monday, that goal has been accomplished. And yet it’s not quite time to kick up feet and declare their mission accomplished.

That was their posture last winter, following their acquisition of Willson Contreras. The opening days of the 2022 Winter Meetings in San Diego seemed to solidify the Cardinals out of the trade market for catchers, and once that was clear, all that remained was time before they found a deal with Contreras. Having achieved that goal and little to nothing else, those steering the franchise then managed to careen directly into a ditch.

Recent experience is a harsh teacher, and with this year’s meetings on tap for next week in Nashville, the Cardinals remain active. These are the areas in which you’re likely to see the Cardinals make moves in the days to come.

The rotation – still

“Nothing’s really changed in the sense that we certainly feel like we’ve accomplished something for our rotation,” president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said Monday at the press conference introducing Sonny Gray. “Now I think we really need to look at what trade options there might be out there and how we can maybe arbitrage that to improve the club.”

In signing Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, the Cardinals have built a firm foundation of innings upon which they can now take further risks. Adding a starter in the trade market would take a rotation that’s competent with upside and elevate to closer toward the front of the pack.

White Sox starter Dylan Cease, the 2022 AL Cy Young Award runner up, is likely to be traded this winter, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported on Thursday that the Cardinals remain in pursuit despite their other additions. Cease, 27, would come with two years of team control, and will fetch a hefty return.

The Dodgers have also been strongly linked to Cease in trade discussions, but might be hamstrung until Shohei Ohtani decides upon his destination. If the White Sox want to move quicker than that and the Cardinals have the compelling pieces for a deal – and they do – St. Louis could be in a position to take advantage of good timing in the market.

Tampa Bay Rays starter Tyler Glasnow is also likely to be traded this winter, owing to the hefty price tag he’s likely to make in arbitration. Glasnow is perhaps three times as expensive from a salary perspective as Cease, comes with only one year of control, and does not have his track record of durability. His cost would be accordingly less, though he could very well measure up to Cease if looking only at 2024 in a vacuum.

And still, lurking, is the free agent specter of Japanese righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto. His deal is bound to be enormous. The Cardinals, by all indications, are a serious suitor, and could be willing to reach into that financial stratosphere.

Roster churn and salary pruning

If the Cardinals do indeed add another starter, it would not be a surprise if they sought to include lefty Steven Matz in the deal or in a complementary transaction. Owed $25 million over the next two seasons, Matz’s remaining money isn’t onerous when compared to market rates, even if the talent exchange could be tricky.

St. Louis sits roughly $30 million short of the cutoff line for the first threshold for paying the competitive balance, or luxury, tax. There’s certainly room to add, but the club is not expected to exceed that $237 million number, so Matz (with an average annual value of $11 million) could be moved out to provide breathing room if he has more value to others as a starter than to the Cardinals as a swingman.

Eyebrows were raised upon reporting from the Associated Press that Gray’s deal is heavily backloaded, with the righty set to make only $10 million in cash in 2024 despite an annual average of $25 million. That structure, though, mirrors that of Contreras’s free agent deal, which was not accompanied by other spending bursts. It may be more likely as a hedge against any potential short term disruption of cash flow from their imperiled television rights deal with Bally Sports.

Bullpen clarity

Giovanny Gallegos, Ryan Helsley and JoJo Romero could be set as the end game bullpen group, but beyond that, there’s a lack of established options. Andre Pallante took a big step back in 2023, Zack Thompson could bounce between the bullpen and the rotation (as could Matt Liberatore), and a young righty like Andre Granillo or perhaps even current starter Gordon Graceffo could make an impact.

Trading seemingly extraneous outfielders like Dylan Carlson or Tyler O’Neill for relievers might seem painful from a value perspective, but would offer both clarity and usefulness to the team in the short term. Free agent options abound, though given the club’s history with free agent relievers, it would not be a surprise if they instead opted for controllable pieces with upside, as they did in trades for Romero and lefty John King.

Helsley, too, could find himself dangled as he was last winter. Missing half the year with an injury and spending the other half attempting to balance his workload, the Cardinals still missed his raw ability dearly on days when he wasn’t available to pitch. Having taken him to an arbitration hearing last spring, whether bad feelings still linger enough to make such a deal possible is sure to be explored in the coming weeks.