New Model Estimates CT Coronavirus Deaths Through December
CONNECTICUT — A highly cited coronavirus projection model just released updated estimates on how the pandemic could impact Connecticut through December.
New projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) released at the end of July estimate the state's death toll from the virus will reach 4,886 by Dec. 1 — an increase of 445 deaths over the total released Friday by the state.
Coronavirus cases in Connecticut hit 50,320 and more than 862,000 tests have been administered since the pandemic began in March. The new data shows 4,441 have died here from the virus. Hospitalizations have continued to drop, with 65 beds occupied, according to the latest report from the state.
The IHME analysis found that if Connecticut residents consistently wear face masks, 238 lives could be saved through December.
The model, which The Washington Post has called "America's most influential coronavirus model," is created by the Seattle-based institute affiliated with the University of Washington.
IHME researchers' updated predictions indicate America’s COVID-19 death toll is expected to reach nearly 300,000 by Dec. 1.
But if 95 percent of the county's population practice consistent mask-wearing, about 70,000 lives could be saved, according to the institute's data.
The widely-cited IHME model is not without its detractors. Researchers writing in The Annals of Internal Medicine criticized the simulation for its grounding "not on transmission dynamics but on a statistical model with no epidemiologic basis." The researchers chalked the popularity of the IHME's work up to our collective fear of the unknown, noting the "appearance of certainty is seductive when the world is desperate to know what lies ahead."
The coronavirus has killed more than 160,000 Americans as of Saturday. The IHME researchers said they expect 140,000 more to die from the coronavirus through Dec. 1. But there are ways to prevent some of the infections and deaths, IHME says in its summary.
"We're seeing a rollercoaster in the United States," IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray said. "It appears that people are wearing masks and socially distancing more frequently as infections increase, then after a while as infections drop, people let their guard down and stop taking these measures to protect themselves and others – which, of course, leads to more infections. And the potentially deadly cycle starts over again."
Infections in hot spots of Arizona, California, Florida and Texas are easing because of a combination of local mandates on mask use, as well as bar and restaurant closures, the report notes. But deaths are rising and will continue to rise for the next week or two, Murray said.
"The public’s behavior had a direct correlation to the transmission of the virus and, in turn, the numbers of deaths," Murray said. "Such efforts to act more cautiously and responsibly will be an important aspect of COVID-19 forecasting and the up-and-down patterns in individual states throughout the coming months and into next year."
IHME's model assumes that some states will need to reimpose mandates — including nonessential business closures and stay-at-home orders.
Those new restrictions would need to be in place when the daily death rate reaches 8 per million. As a result, the model estimates these states will need to reimpose mandates at the following timeframes:
August – Arizona, Florida, Mississippi, and South Carolina
September – Georgia and Texas
October – Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, and Oregon
November – Alabama, Arkansas, California, Iowa, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah, Washington, and Wisconsin.
However, if mask use is increased to 95 percent, the return of stricter mandates could be delayed 6 to 8 weeks on average, the summary states.
You can view the IHME's full analysis here.
Don't miss local and statewide news from all across Connecticut. Sign up for free Patch alerts and daily newsletters.
See also: Lamont Issues New Guidelines On When Schools Should Open
This article originally appeared on the Across Connecticut Patch
