Models predict wave of COVID-19 deaths into March

New COVID-19 models are indicating that a wave of coronavirus-related deaths could creep into March, as the U.S. continues to grapple with the highly transmissible omicron variant.

Katriona Shea, a professor at Pennsylvania State University who co-leads a team that reviews COVID-19 models and then passes on forecasts to the White House, said the current wave of coronavirus-related deaths in the U.S. will hit an apex in late January or early February, according to The Associated Press.

The early February crest could result in a number of deaths that is equal to or greater than the peak of fatalities recorded during the delta wave, according to Shea. She also said numbers could exceed the apex of deaths recorded in the U.S. last year.

Overall, Shea's combined models predict that 1.5 million Americans will check into hospitals and 191,000 will die between mid-December and mid-March, according to the AP.

The current wave, however, could add between 58,000 and 305,000 new fatalities to the total COVID-19 death toll in the U.S., according to the AP, which noted that there is a degree of uncertainty when it comes to models.

Shea said the imminent wave of COVID-19 deaths "is omicron driven," despite reports that the new variant causes less severe illness in vaccinated individuals compared to previous strains of the virus.

"Overall, you're going to see more sick people even if you as an individual have a lower chance of being sick," Shea said.

The U.S. is currently seeing a spike in COVID-19 cases caused largely by the omicron variant. The number of new daily infections started to rise late last year, when reports started to surface of the new strain spreading across the globe.

Deaths have so far remained lower than previous waves of the pandemic. Early data suggests that the variant causes less severe illness in fully vaccinated individuals.

Still, as case numbers continue to creep up, the number of deaths could increase as well, the AP noted.