COVID-19 vaccine stocks plunged on Monday after President Joe Biden said the pandemic "is over."
Shares of Moderna, BioNTech, and Novavax all fell as much as 9% in Monday's trading session.
While the pandemic may be nearing its end, demand for COVID vaccines could continue for years to come.
Most recent data shows the seven-day average of new COVID cases continues to decline to about 60,000, while daily deaths from the disease are at an average of about 500.
"The pandemic is over. We still have a problem with COVID. We're still doing a low of work on it. But the pandemic is over. If you notice, no one's wearing masks. Everybody seems to be in pretty good shape, and so I think it's changing, and I think [the resumption of the Detroit auto show] is a perfect example of it," Biden said.
Those comments dinged companies that derive most, if not all, of their revenue from the sale of vaccines intended to protect against the COVID-19 virus.
Despite Biden's comments, and the reality that COVID-19 has indeed fallen down the list of concerns for most people, there is likely still to be some demand for COVID vaccines as winter approaches and booster shots are recommended. Moderna has also signaled that it could find new demand for its vaccines from China.
Moderna expects to generate about $21 billion in revenue in 2022, while BioNTech expects to see up to $17 billion in revenue for the year. Meanwhile Novavax, which was late to the game with the approval of its COVID vaccine, expects to see $2 billion in revenue for the year.
But next year, those numbers will fall off a cliff, at least according to analysts' estimates. Average 2023 revenue estimates for Moderna and BioNTech fall to $10.7 billion and $9.8 billion, respectively, while and Novavax should see relatively flat revenue at $2.3 billion.
And investors are taking notice. Shares of Moderna and BioNTech have fallen 75% and 71% from their record highs, respectively, as investors grow impatient with both companies and their search for the next mRNA-based therapeutic that will be able to replace COVID-19 vaccine revenue.
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