Monday scoreboard watching: Who to cheer on for Rockets’ draft picks
With Saturday’s loss at Utah, the Rockets (16-52) officially secured their maximum possible lottery odds for the NBA’s 2021 draft. However, as the 2020-21 regular season enters its final week, there are still numerous variables that could influence Houston’s eventual first-round picks.
From the Rockets’ perspective, the teams to focus on are Miami (37-31), Portland (39-29) and Milwaukee (43-24). As of now, the Heat would have either the No. 18 or No. 19 pick in the first round, depending on a coin flip, while the Trail Blazers are at No. 22 and Bucks at No. 24.
The reason these three teams are important to focus on is as follows:
Milwaukee: Houston owns its 2021 first-round draft pick, regardless
Portland: Houston owns its 2021 first-round draft pick, lottery protected
Miami: If Houston does not land in the draft lottery’s top four (a 47.9% chance), Oklahoma City will swap Miami’s first-round selection for that of the Rockets
With Milwaukee and Miami, the calculus for Houston fans is simple. The lower those teams are in the standings, the better for the Rockets. Right now, the Bucks are only a half-game behind Denver and Brooklyn, and one game behind the Los Angeles Clippers. The Heat are within two games (in either direction) of Boston, Golden State, Atlanta, New York, Portland and the Los Angeles Lakers.
Forgot about Hawks being a division winner. Hoping for them getting that tiebreaker over Miami and a 3rd team. https://t.co/5WrEEkBzFH
— David Weiner (@BimaThug) May 9, 2021
With Portland, the calculus is a bit more complicated. Right now, the Blazers are sixth in the Western Conference standings, which would ensure they qualify for the playoffs. However, they are only a game ahead of the Lakers, who are in the No. 7 spot. (Portland is also a single game behind Dallas for the No. 5 position.)
Hypothetically, if the Lakers jumped Portland for No. 6, the Trail Blazers would have to win a game in the West play-in tournament to qualify for the playoffs. If they do not, their draft pick obligation to Houston would roll over to 2022. That effectively makes it a risk-reward balance, in terms of rooting interests for fans of the Rockets. If Portland falls to No. 7, their 2021 pick moves slightly higher, relative to being at No. 6. However, that would also bring in some risk of the pick not conveying at all this year, thanks to the play-in tournament. So, in terms of who to cheer for, it depends in part on how much risk each person wants to accept.
For Monday’s games, here’s our preferences for each pick:
Miami: Cheer for Atlanta over Washington, and Golden State over Utah
Why: The Hawks are tied with the Heat in the standings, and a loss by Atlanta would nudge Miami higher. Meanwhile, a win by the Warriors could give Golden State a slim shot at tying or passing Miami in the final standings.Milwaukee: Cheer for Spurs over Bucks
Why: Self-explanatoryPortland: Cheer for Rockets over Trail Blazers
Why: For starters, it’s more fun to root for your team to win, especially now that Houston’s draft lottery odds are secure. Second, the Blazers are only a game behind Dallas for No. 5. If Houston pulled the upset, it would make it very difficult for Portland’s pick to slide any further.
We’ll post a new version of this guide each day during the final week of the NBA’s 2020-21 regular season. Stay tuned!
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