“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” 

— Mark Twain

Whether music to your ears or nails on a chalkboard, old catchphrases seem to always circle back around. They can be hopeful reminders of better days ahead or they can remind us to remain vigilant for what could come next.

The world of investing has plenty of its own to fall back on. During volatile times in the market, they may prove to be sage advice.

Often attributed to Mark Twain, the quote above is a common refrain among market commentators. Lately, it is most likely associated with the Fed’s interest-rate hikes.

Those who are paid to predict the future are near consensus that the Fed will overdo its rate hikes, stalling the economy. They look back at previous rate-hike cycles and see this to be true.

How could it possibly be different this time? Luckily, the Fed is very transparent with its intent. They will hold course until inflation reaches a more acceptable level. Will that level occur before or after a significant impact on the economy? Time will tell.

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In the heart of football season, it is easy to draw parallels between sports and investing. The market is as driven by quarterly results as any Sunday primetime event. To quote head coach Bill Parcells “You are what your record says you are.”

If only the market would stick with that advice.

This earnings season is proving the coach right. Companies that show strong earnings are being rewarded. Those coming up short are feeling the pain.

For many years the stock market was the only place for real returns. Bonds and bank accounts were losing bets. Now that rates have risen meaningfully, the bar for adequate investment returns is higher. Companies will need to produce results when it counts.

Lately, any conversation around investing turns into “when will we hit bottom, or is the bottom in?” Investors willing to buy want to get the lowest price possible. They are nearly certain the bottom is coming soon, but not enough to say exactly when.

The most common outcome is staying out of the market too long and buying after it has gone back up. This investor was so concerned with "catching a falling knife” that they missed the opportunity right in front of them. They forget the key difference between stocks and knives. A falling knife tends to stick in the ground, stocks tend to bounce back rapidly. Often leaving you wishing you already owned it.

Ken Fisher is attributed with saying “Time in the market beats timing the market.” This is often the advice most needed for our friends in the previous example. History shows you are better off staying invested than moving in and out of the market. Waiting for the right time will usually leave you missing the best time.

According to a study from BlackRock, over the 20-year period ending in December 2021, if you missed the five best days in the market, your returns were nearly half of those who stayed in the market full-time.

Now is not the time to swing for the fences. Now is the time to stay in the game. Concern yourself more with catching the market’s best days vs avoiding falling knives.

Your record should be judged solely on the success of your financial plan. A good plan should never include market timing. Talk with your trusted adviser and stick with your plan.

Patrick E. Gauthier is a senior portfolio analyst for CPS Investment Advisors in Lakeland.

This article originally appeared on The Ledger: Trying to time the market will cause you to miss its best days