Monster storm bringing rain to Whatcom County, stirring fears of Nooksack flooding
Barely two weeks after a record-breaking cold snap with low temperatures in the single digits, Whatcom County could be seeing a high of 60 degrees amid torrential rain from Bellingham to the mountains above 7,000 feet this weekend and into early next week.
An expansive atmospheric river is approaching Western Washington, sponging moisture from the South Pacific near Hawaii that will drench an unusually broad region from Juneau, Alaska, to Portland.
Whatcom and Skagit counties are in the area that meteorologists think will see a persistent downpour until early next week, setting up the same scenario of heavy rain and melting snowpack that caused devastating floods on the Nooksack River in 2020 and 2021, according to the National Weather Service in Seattle.
“This is going to produce heavy precipitation for several days. A lot can change, but it looks like the heaviest precipitation we’re expecting is over the Olympics and the North Cascades. That would be the Nooksack River,” meteorologist Kirby Cook told The Bellingham Herald.
“Our confidence is pretty good that we’re going to see this pattern set up,” Cook said.
Two rounds of flooding in 2021 killed an Everson man, displaced about 500 residents in riverside communities and caused more than $200 million in damage across Whatcom County.
Current estimates from the Northwest River Forecast Center show that the Nooksack River is expected to crest about 3 feet below flood stage in Ferndale on Jan. 29 and remain high for a couple of days. A crest of about 4 feet below flood stage is forecast on Jan. 29 near Nugents Corner.
Officials at the Whatcom County Executive’s office and the departments of Public Works and Emergency Management told The Herald this week that they are watching the forecast closely.
“Recent rain and snowmelt have swelled rivers and streams across the county,” Executive’s Office spokesman Jed Holmes said. “Our River and Flood Division team continues to monitor current conditions, weather forecasts and river projections. We do not anticipate flooding on the Nooksack River in the near future. If that outlook changes, the appropriate steps will be taken by the Division of Emergency Management, Public Works and our partners.”
“Even in the absence of a flood threat, folks should take great care around moving water — it can be very fast, cold and dangerous this time of year,” he said in an email.
Public Works Department spokeswoman Mandy Feutz said the county provides several resources that allow residents to prepare for flooding.
“Our sector watch team meets regularly, and we have resources in place and partnerships to call upon if needed. We encourage those in flood-prone areas and anyone who’d like to learn more about local flood preparedness and response efforts to view our annual flood newsletter. You can also visit our Forecasts & Current River Conditions web page to follow the latest river gauge projections from the National Weather Service,” Feutz said.
Snow will fall in the mountains above 4,000 feet near Mount Baker until Saturday, when temperatures will rise and snow levels will go from 7,000 to 8,000 feet, Cook said. That’s well above the 5,020-foot height of Panorama Dome at the Mt. Baker Ski Area.
“When the snow levels get so high like that, the precipitation is falling as rain in the mountains. With persistent moderate rain over several days, there will be significant rises in area rivers, those coming off the west slopes of the North Cascades, especially in Whatcom and Skagit counties,” he said.
Avalanche danger is likely to increase because of rain in the Mount Baker wilderness, the National Weather Service said in an emailed briefing Thursday afternoon. The threat of landslides will also rise across Western Washington because of persistent rain on saturated ground.
