More college football conference realignment lies ahead. How could it affect Boise State?

The most recent major conference realignment in college football happened between 2010 and 2014, and was highlighted by Nebraska and Maryland joining the Big Ten, Texas A&M and Missouri leaving the Big 12 for the SEC, and Colorado and Utah joining the Pac-12.

Those years also brought about the formation of the American Athletic Conference after the old Big East split into football-playing and nonfootball members, and marked the beginning of Boise State’s often-tenuous relationship with the Mountain West — including the Broncos pledging to join the Big East, then staying put.

The college football landscape has been relatively stable since then, but another shift seems to be coming soon, after Texas and Oklahoma informed the Big 12 on Monday that they will not renew their grants of media rights following the expiration of the conference’s current TV contract in 2025. Media reports suggest both schools might be heading to the SEC.

If Texas and Oklahoma follow through, the remaining members of the Big 12 would be standing on shaky ground. In all likelihood, the conference would not survive without its marquee members — unless it made a significant addition.

There’s also a distinct possibility that the Big 12 as we know it would dissolve, creating a domino effect that would have an impact on just about every major conference in the country, leaving the future landscape much different from the current one.

Would the Big Ten and ACC try to pick off the remaining Big 12 members in an effort to keep up with the SEC? Would what’s left of the Big 12 try to form a super conference with the Pac-12, or would the league try to add some of the top Group of Five/independent teams, such as BYU, Boise State, Cincinnati, Memphis, Houston and SMU?

And what would a shift in that college football landscape mean for Boise State and the Mountain West — a conference Boise State filed a legal complaint against over planned changes in the latest TV contract?

Boise State does its research on college conferences

There are more questions than answers at this point, but if there’s one thing that seems certain, it’s that change is coming — and Boise State has been doing its homework to prepare.

Documents obtained by the Idaho Statesman show that Boise State hired a consulting firm, MRJ Advisors LLC, which not only aided in its search for new Athletic Director Jeramiah Dickey and football coach Andy Avalos, but also researched how the university fits, academically and financially, in the Mountain West and other conferences — specifically the Pac-12 and AAC. Those documents were first obtained by BoiseDev.

Boise State hired MRJ Advisors in November 2020, according to the documents, and the group visited Boise State’s campus and began gathering comparative information later that month. After Dickey and Avalos were hired in January, the firm presented its findings to the athletic department in February, using data collected from fiscal year 2019.

The group concluded that if Boise State can’t land in a Power Five conference, its best bet might be to stay in the Mountain West — in part because of the favorable cut of the conference’s TV money that goes to the Broncos, and also because institutional support and Boise State’s academic ratings lag behind many AAC schools, not to mention those competing at the pinnacle of the sport.

“Boise State is encouraged to focus on growing and strengthening their position in the MWC while simultaneously monitoring the national landscape of college athletics,” MRJ Advisors wrote in its presentation.

Dickey declined to comment on the specific nature of Boise State’s inquiries outside the Mountain West, but he issued a statement through a department spokesperson.

“Boise State will continue to do its due diligence on all fronts regarding what is best for its athletic department, and ultimately, the institution,” Dickey said. “This will be an exciting year for Bronco Athletics, and we are looking forward to creating a great experience for our student-athletes and our loyal fans.”

Would the Broncos leave the Mountain West?

Boise State left the Western Athletic Conference to join the Mountain West in 2011. A year later, the WAC became the first FBS conference to drop football since the Big West in 2000, which was the final year the Broncos were a member in that conference. The WAC announced in January that it plans to expand and reinstate football in the lower Football Championship Subdivision (FCS), beginning in 2022.

Boise State hasn’t been particularly happy with the Mountain West in recent years. In emails that surfaced last year, former coach Bryan Harsin tried to persuade Boise State President Marlene Tromp and former AD Curt Apsey to make the move to another conference. In particular, he wasn’t happy about Mountain West Commissioner Craig Thompson’s approach to the conference’s national status, which is much more reserved than that of AAC Commissioner Mike Aresco, who isn’t shy about stumping for the conference he refers to as a member of the “Power Six.”

After initially announcing it was joining the Big East in 2011, Boise State essentially had to be lured back to the Mountain West with a sweetheart TV deal, which included its home football games being negotiated separately from the rest of the conference, and the Broncos getting additional TV revenue. The conference’s plan to end those benefits at the conclusion of the current deal — which runs through 2026 — was the basis of a legal complaint Boise State filed last January, but the Mountain West Board of Directors voted to honor the original deal and Boise State dropped its complaint.

So what are the pros and cons of Boise State leaving the Mountain West — a conference its football team has won four championships in since 2011?

The Broncos’ main reason to stay — at least when it comes to possibly joining another Group of Five conference — begins with that favorable cut of the TV revenue, according to MRJ Advisors. The latest number available placed the value of Boise State’s extra benefit at $1.8 million, with a total TV payout of about $5.7 million.

“Boise State has a ‘preferred’ revenue share in the Mountain West Conference. We do not believe it is likely that other conferences would incorporate,” the group wrote in its presentation to members of the athletic department. “Also, there is currently not an increase in media revenue associated with the AAC compared to the MWC based upon current media contracts.”

According to the MRJ presentation, Boise State ranked third in the Mountain West in total revenue in 2019-20, behind Colorado State and San Diego State, and was on par with UNLV. The Broncos exceeded the conference average in football ticket sales and contributions from donors, but they fell well below the average when it comes to institutional support of the athletic department, which includes financial support from the university, student fees and the government.

Boise State’s annual football ticket sales and donor contributions exceeded the average in the AAC, too, according to the advisers, but the Broncos’ institutional support fell below the conference average and the Broncos ranked behind eight AAC teams in total revenue.

Another reason for the Broncos to stay is that their football team is a consistent winner in the Mountain West. They have gone to four straight title games and amassed a 63-12 regular-season record against conference teams since 2011. And while Boise State’s football team is likely to have suitors outside the conference, the rest of its sports won’t necessarily be as attractive.

Boise State’s athletic department generated almost $52 million in fiscal year 2020, but football ($4,832,080) and men’s basketball ($1,691,665) remain the only programs not operating at a deficit.

Boise State and the Power Five leagues

A move to a Power Five conference would significantly increase the Broncos’ revenues, according to MRJ Advisors, which projected that Boise State could generate almost $80 million a year as a member of the Pac-12, for instance.

During Mountain West media days last week, Thompson announced that the conference split a record $49 million between its 12 members this year, despite the NCAA distributing just 37.5% of its usual total and College Football Playoff distributions declining because of COVID-19.

The Mountain West’s new TV deal — which is valued at $270 million over six years — helped the conference set the record, Thompson said, but its revenues still are way behind those of Power Five conferences. In 2019-20, the Pac-12 reported $543 million in total revenue and distributions of $403 million, with an average of $33.6 million going to each member.

When comparing Boise State to Pac-12 teams, MRJ Advisors found that the Broncos fell below the conference average in all areas except institutional support.

The Big 12’s distributions dropped for the second year in a row because of COVID-19, but it still split $345 million between its 10 schools. The SEC generated $729 million in total revenue in fiscal year 2020, and distributed about $45.5 million to each of its 14 members.

A major reason for Boise State to leave the Mountain West for the AAC or a Power Five conference is simply better competition, especially with the College Football Playoff potentially expanding to 12 teams from four.

San Diego State, Fresno State and Air Force make occasional forays into the AP Top 25, and Nevada and San Jose State have the potential to make some noise on the national stage this year, but Boise State is the only team in the Mountain West that is consistently ranked in the Top 25 and regularly finds itself in the conversation for a New Year’s Six bowl.

That would change in the Pac-12, where Oregon and Washington are consistently Top 25 programs, USC has grand name recognition and history — as well as a wealth of talent — and Stanford has the personnel to make a run in any given season. It would change in the AAC, too, where Cincinnati, Memphis, Houston and UCF have played in New Year’s Six bowl games in recent years.

Tougher competition means a more difficult path to a conference championship, but playing a couple of ranked teams in one’s league and a quality nonconference opponent may also give Boise State its best chance of ending up in the top 12 at the end of the season, even with a loss on its record.

Will the Mountain West add teams?

College football might look drastically different by the middle of this decade.

If Texas and Oklahoma leave the Big 12 and trigger a snowball effect, one hypothetical model has four 16-team super conferences emerging, with Boise State, BYU, Texas Tech and TCU joining existing Pac-12 members, but there are so many unknowns.

Would the Pac-12 take all of the Broncos’ sports or just football? Will it accept Boise State at all because it’s not designated as an R1 research university?

A more realistic outcome to conference realignment might be the Mountain West’s addition of a couple of teams. The league released a statement on Monday saying that it’s weighing all of its options.

“The Mountain West immediately engaged when we became aware of the potential for conference realignment. That has included gathering information over the past few days from across the industry, and earlier today our board of directors and directors of athletics convened to evaluate that intelligence and discuss next steps,” the statement said. “Our intent is to actively appraise various scenarios, identify potential opportunities and take actions which can positively impact the trajectory of the conference and our member institutions. We will do our work confidentially and only comment further as appropriate or necessary.”

Could TCU and BYU decide to rejoin the conference? The Cougars left in 2011 to become FBS independents, and the Horned Frogs left in 2012 to join the Big 12 after originally pledging to go to the Big East.

Maybe the Mountain West reaches out to mid-tier Big 12 football teams such as Texas Tech, Kansas State or Kansas — although it’s hard to imagine their men’s basketball teams wanting any part of that move, especially the Jayhawks. Maybe the conference takes a shot at Baylor or a Pac-12 team that gets left out of a super conference, or maybe it blows the whole model up and adds top FCS programs looking to move up, such as North Dakota State and Eastern Washington.

Any talk of conference expansion is pure speculation, but the Mountain West hasn’t been shy about wanting to add to its ranks in the past. Thompson revealed to the San Diego Union-Tribune in 2018 that the conference had discussed expansion with six schools, including Gonzaga, which doesn’t have football, but the Bulldogs decided to stay in the West Coast Conference.