More on Dolphins’ Chase/Smith/Pitts conundrum and the one thing they’re advised not to do

Without doing anything wrong and without playing a single game, Alabama receiver DeVonta Smith in three months has somehow gone from the conventional no-brainer choice with the Dolphins’ initial pick in April’s NFL Draft to, well, something far different.

And let’s be clear: That’s no fault of Smith, the Heisman Trophy winner who has extracted every ounce of talent from his 170-pound frame.

But in some ways, taking Smith with Miami’s pick at No. 6 would feel more like a consolation prize, whether that’s fair or not.

Two veteran executives told me they would have a difficult time selecting Smith at No. 6 if UF’s Kyle Pitts and LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase are off the board because of the concerns about Smith’s size (at 170, he will be the second-lightest first-round receiver this century) and a belief that the value move in that scenario (with Pitts and Chase gone) would be to trade down a few spots to take either Smith or Alabama teammate Jaylen Waddle in the 9 to 12 range.

Both were careful to note their respect for Smith and his character and appreciation for his talent and production at Alabama.

ESPN’s Adam Schefter has assured repeatedly that four of the top seven picks (possibly the top four) will be quarterbacks. If that’s the case, the front-runners for two of the other top-seven picks are Chase and Pitts. The seventh — in no particular order — could be an offensive tackle (Oregon’s Penei Sewell or Northwestern’s Rashawn Slater).

So from a value standpoint, taking Smith at No. 6 wouldn’t be an egregious reach but it might not be the best value. Whether Chase will be there is very much in question; Cincinnati is said to be considering him strongly at No. 5; NFL Network’s Mike Garofolo has said he expects Chase to be Cincinnati’s pick.

And Pitts has said he believes Atlanta is considering him at No. 4, though there’s also a possibility the Falcons could take a quarterback or trade down to a team that covets a quarterback or Pitts or Chase.

If Pitts and Chase are gone at 6, that means two of the draft’s top five quarterbacks will still be available when Miami is on the clock. There presumably will be suitors for that pick in this specific scenario of Pitts and Chase going fourth and fifth.

So taking Smith in that sixth spot rather than trading down - perhaps to Denver at 9 - would be a poor value selection, one longtime league executive insisted to me.

Though there always will be differences of opinion, the general consensus in the scouting community is Chase will and should go ahead of Smith.

As ESPN’s Louis Riddick said, before the Dolphins’ two trades: “If/when Ja’Marr Chase runs that 4.45 or less in the 40 this spring, go ahead and send him straight to Miami” at No. 3. The Dolphins subsequently traded down, then up to 6. And Chase then ran even better — a 4.38.

ESPN draft analyst Matt Miller said: “The more I hear is that Ja’Marr Chase will be close to a consensus wide receiver 1 in this class. Ja’Marr Chase is the best wide receiver in this class. He is a complete prospect who should have no development period in the NFL. You plug him right away as your wide receiver No. 1.”

NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah makes clear that Chase is a better prospect than Smith “because of everything [Chase] can do.... He plays big to go up and get the football, and then after the catch he gives you that strength and physicality to break tackles. He’s to me the best receiver in the draft.”

We’ve written at length about the Chase/Smith comparison, both here and here.

And let’s be clear: There are a few evaluators, such as ESPN’s Mel Kiper, who give a slight edge to Smith.

“The guy who’s already polished is DeVonta Smith,” NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein said. “If you want an outside receiver, DeVonta Smith. If you want someone from the slot, DeVonta Smith. If you would like somebody to work short, intermediate and deep, that’s Devonta Smith. He’s got great hands. He is a fantastic route runner. He comes in pro ready, polished and the real deal right off the bat.”

But if Pitts and Chase are off the board, there isn’t even a consensus in the scouting community that Smith should be the pick over Waddle.

A longtime NFC scout told me he rated Waddle ahead of Smith. Keep in mind that Waddle averaged 9.8 yards after the catch in his career at Alabama, highest among all Power 5 receivers with at least 100 catches since 2014.

NFL Net’s Bucky Brooks, a former scout, said “Waddle has a higher ceiling than Smith. He’s the more explosive, more dynamic playmaker.”

NFL Network’s Jeremiah also makes the case for Waddle over Smith.

Jeremiah said “Waddle gives you a little bit more juice, but DeVonta Smith plays plenty fast, as well. DeVonta Smith is a pristine route runner. He obviously as everybody knows is real thin. He is really long armed and can go up and get it as well. I just thought what you get after the catch with some of the shiftiness and then just the home run speed with Waddle is why I ended up with Waddle over Smith. Waddle had the fastest GPS of any receiver in the country. Your eyes aren’t deceiving you when you watch him. He’s freaky fast.”

Look at how the first four games of Waddle and Smith compared last season before Waddle’s ankle injury that sidelined him seven games:

Smith caught 38 of 47 targets for 483 yards (12.7 average) and four touchdowns. Waddle caught 25 of 29 for 557 yards (22.3 average) and four touchdowns.

Kiper said Thursday that Smith and Waddle are two of the best five players in the draft, in his view, and it wouldn’t shock him if Waddle goes before Smith.

And if you need a reminder why Pitts is the transformational non-quarterback in this draft, allow Kiper to tell you:

He called Pitts “a once in a decade player who you won’t find in a draft in the coming years. A game changer. He could give Tua Tagovailoa what he needs. Wide receiver/tight end value nightmare.”

So let’s be clear: DeVonta Smith would be a fine pick for the Dolphins; the production and body of work speak for itself, even if the actual body is on the alarmingly thin side. But is Smith the best value at 6 rather than a trade down if Pitts and Chase are off the board?

That’s dubious. And if you take Smith at No. 6 -- and he doesn’t stay healthy at his size -- it will be fair to ask why Miami traded its own 2022 first-round pick to move from 12th to sixth when they might have been able to trade far less to move from 12 to 10 for Smith or Waddle at that point.

Coming next: A look at the receivers in play for Miami at No. 18, No. 36 and 50.

Here’s my Thursday Heat piece on where Miami stands in its quest to avoid a play-in game, and tiebreakers and schedules among the teams competing.

Here’s my Thursday media column with a 10-pack of news and notes.