NOAA to investigate system near Caribbean; TD Six, 3 other disturbances in Atlantic and Gulf

Robin Webb, Abigail Hasebroock, Shira Moolten, South Florida Sun-Sentinel
·3 min read

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring Tropical Depression Six in the central Atlantic and four other disturbances, including one expected to become a tropical depression Sunday in the Atlantic and another near South Florida headed for the western Gulf of Mexico.

At the 5 a.m. update Sunday, Tropical Depression Six was moving west at 15 mph with sustained winds of up to 35 mph, just 4 mph under the minimum threshold for tropical storm status. Six, however, is encountering storm-shredding wind shear about 1,000 miles east of the Caribbean and it expected to be a remnant low on Monday.

Forecasters were also monitoring with increasing scrutiny a disturbance in the far eastern Caribbean that could develop into a tropical depression in the next couple of days. A NOAA Hurricane Reconnaissance mission is set to investigate it Sunday, and the latest outlook cautioned “interests in the central and eastern Caribbean” to monitor it. The system is forecast to travel west or west-northwest over the central Caribbean Sea then turn north toward the southwest Atlantic. As of 8 a.m. Sunday, it was given a 70% chance of developing in the next two days and an 80% chance of developing in the next seven days.

South Florida will likely see additional rain Sunday from the disturbance moving past the southernmost tip of the Sunshine State. It is expected to reach the western Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday. It is forecast at a 50% chance at developing over the next seven days, and 30% over the next 48 hours, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The forecast for Sunday in South Florida includes showers and thunderstorms across the region, with potential for some heavy downpours that could lead to localized flooding, according to a tweet from the National Weather Service in Miami.

A short-lived tropical depression is expected to form Sunday from a system located a few hundred miles west of Africa’s Cabo Verde Islands. Forecasters expect it to move slowly west-northwest over the central tropical Atlantic, where it is likely to encounter wind shear that will hinder further development. As of 8 a.m. Sunday, it had a 70% chance of developing in the next 48 hours.

Another system close to Africa’s west coast could become a tropical depression later this week as it moves west-northwest across the eastern tropical Atlantic. As of early Sunday, it was given a 10% chance of developing within 48 hours and 50% within seven days.

The next named storms would be Emily, followed by Franklin and Gert.

The National Hurricane Center is predicting an “above-normal” 2023 hurricane season, increasing the likelihood from only a 30% chance in its last outlook to a 60% chance going forward.

The update announced last week came as a result of ongoing record-breaking sea surface temperatures that continue to fight off the tempering effects of El Niño.

While sea surface temperatures have remained hot for longer than anticipated, El Niño’s effects, which typically reduce hurricane chances, have emerged more slowly.

The NHC, which operates under the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, is now calling for 14-21 named storms, including 6-11 hurricanes, and two to five major hurricanes.