Morning Report — Trump vs. the border deal

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The Senate’s border deal is on life support.

While some congressional Republicans had been hoping for a piece of election-year legislation aimed at fixing immigration and border security problems, Republican front-runner former President Trump is opposed, which means Senate Republicans are growing more hesitant. Trump’s push to kill the border deal to deny President Biden a legislative win is upsetting members on both sides of the aisle as negotiators hope to wrap up work on an agreement within days.

No plan has been finalized so far, and no legislative text has been released, but negotiators on both sides of the aisle have been working since before the holidays.

TRUMP HAD BEEN THE SLEEPING GIANT in the background of talks, but his wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, coupled with his recent remarks calling for Republicans to oppose any border compromise, have complicated the path forward for the Senate. Lawmakers say they are worried that killing the deal would be a major disservice given the situation at the border and in Ukraine, writes The Hill’s Al Weaver.

“If politics get in the way of this — if Donald Trump who wants to help his friend [Russian President Vladimir Putin] with Ukraine and wants to keep the border alive as a major issue — if that prevails, that would be a really horrible disposition to all this,” Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) told reporters.

Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) called the effort “appalling.”

Reports emerged Wednesday that Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) had broached the idea of separating the border and Ukraine portions of Biden’s supplemental request during a special Senate GOP conference meeting, but McConnell confirmed at a Thursday closed-door meeting that he still supports a linked deal. The package is a critical piece of McConnell’s legacy — one the GOP leader isn’t letting go of at this stage in negotiations (Politico).

A senior aide to House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) told a group of Senate Republican chiefs of staff Thursday that the Senate border security pact has no chance of passing the House, underscoring what is becoming more and more apparent to GOP senators, The Hill’s Alexander Bolton reports. Still, Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), the lead GOP negotiator on the border package, said he is moving full steam ahead with negotiations and remains hopeful that lawmakers will have a draft next week.

FAILURE TO STRIKE AN AGREEMENT would have global implications, with the Pentagon warning that Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines of its grinding war with Russia risk running out of ammunition. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has said the “future of the war in Ukraine” and the “security of our Western democracy” depend on Congress reaching a deal (The Guardian).

▪ The Hill: GOP leaders face conservative and moderate pushback on bipartisan tax deal.

▪ The Hill: Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) unveiled a bill Thursday that would prohibit the federal government from removing razor wire or other fencing from the U.S. border with Mexico.

3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY

▪ An Alabama inmate became the first in the U.S. Thursday to be executed with nitrogen gas.

▪ Trump’s momentum has world leaders bracing for round two.

▪ NASA’s mini Mars helicopter called Ingenuity is retiring after 72 flights on the red planet.

When the House returns next week, Republicans will prepare to mark up a resolution to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

They’ve increasingly focused on claims he’s obstructed their investigation — igniting another dispute with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). House Homeland Security Chair Mark Green (R-Tenn.) last week sent a letter claiming DHS has failed to respond to several of the requests embedded in some 51 different letters, leaving 173 outstanding requests. While it’s not clear whether obstruction would be one of the planned arguments for impeachment, it’s been a running complaint and a factor in Republicans’ decision to move forward with impeachment.

“Refusing to provide this information to Congress limits our ability to conduct investigations, and we will consider this consistent pattern of obstruction as we move forward with his impeachment,” Green said in a statement to The Hill.

But as The Hill’s Rebecca Beitsch reports, the extent to which DHS has rebuffed Green’s demands are more complex than the statistics he points to.

LEADING THE DAY

© The Associated Press / Charles Krupa | Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley in Manchester, N.H., on Jan. 19.

POLITICS

Trump on Wednesday told Nikki Haley’s donors they would be banished from his political movement, saying he would refuse contributions from anyone who donates to her primary campaign. “When I ran for Office and won, I noticed that the losing Candidate’s ‘Donors’ would immediately come to me, and want to ‘help out,’” he wrote on his social media platform. “This is standard in Politics, but no longer with me.”

The former South Carolina governor plans at least 17 fundraisers in five states in the next few weeks, including in her home state before the Feb. 24 primary. Other events are planned in California, Florida, New York and Texas (ABC News). Haley told supporters on Wednesday that she had raised $1 million in the previous day since losing in the New Hampshire primary.

AMONG HER EARLY BACKERS was the political network founded by the billionaire industrialist brothers Charles and David Koch, which endorsed her last autumn. Haley has lost some major donors, including Reid Hoffman and Andy Sabin, who say they consider the race for the nomination effectively over. Sabin has called on Haley to drop out.

Trump on Wednesday used his social media megaphone and a derogatory nickname for his rival to make his ire clear: “Anybody that makes a ‘Contribution’ to Birdbrain, from this moment forth, will be permanently barred from the MAGA camp. We don’t want them, and will not accept them, because we Put America First, and ALWAYS WILL!”

The New York Times: In the money chase, the super PAC backing Haley’s campaign said it raised $50.1 million in the second half of 2023. The Federal Election Commission deadline to report details is Jan. 31. The Trump-aligned super PAC, MAGA Inc., said Thursday it raised more than $46 million in the second half of 2023.

REPUBLICAN PARTY STRAINS flared Thursday with news, first reported by The Dispatch and followed by NBC News and other outlets, that a draft resolution ahead of next week’s Republican National Committee (RNC) meeting in Las Vegas would seek to name Trump the “presumptive 2024 nominee.”

The former president late Thursday discouraged such a resolution for the sake of “party unity,” adding he wants to win “at the ballot box.”

The headlines set off fireworks inside the party and forced some GOP lawmakers, including Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), who had backed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis before he left the race, to publicly reject the idea.

“Go through the process. Go earn it,” Roy said during a Fox News interview Thursday.  “If he’s ultimately the nominee by votes, then he should be supported as the nominee for the Republican Party, but you gotta go earn it. You don’t just get coronated.”

RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel’s staff tried to distance her from the fallout. “Resolutions, such as this one, are brought forward by members of the RNC. Chairwoman McDaniel doesn’t offer resolutions. This will be taken up by the Resolutions Committee,” spokesperson Keith Schipper said in a statement.

Meanwhile, after months of speculation about credibility and viability, independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. cleared hurdles this week to gain access to the New Hampshire ballot, showcasing his support in a battleground state. The Hill’s Hanna Trudo reports that inside the two major parties, there are concerns that Kennedy’s race may complicate things.

2024 ROUNDUP

▪ Veepstakes: Attention shifted rapidly from the likely GOP presidential nominee to speculation about potential Republican running mates.

▪ In the Nevada caucuses run by the RNC on Feb. 8, Trump is destined to benefit in the delegate count. Haley will compete in the Feb. 6 primary run by the secretary of state. The changes this year may confuse thousands of Nevada voters.

▪ Biden, as expected today, paused new liquified natural gas exports. His election-year decision aligns with environmentalists.

WHERE AND WHEN

The House convenes Monday at noon.

The Senate will meet at 9 a.m. for a pro forma session.

The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 10 a.m. On Saturday, Biden will be in Columbia, S.C., to headline a South Carolina Democratic Party dinner that will include Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.) and Democratic National Committee Chair Jaime Harrison.

Vice President Harris is in California today. She will travel Saturday to Las Vegas to speak about entrepreneurship, accompanied by Small Business Administrator Isabella Guzman and second gentleman Doug Emhoff. Following some campaign events, Harris and Emhoff will return to California.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is in Wisconsin, accompanied by Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers (D) and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, to tour WRTP | Big Step, a workforce training facility in Milwaukee. She will speak at 11:30 a.m. CST and join a roundtable discussion at 2 p.m. CST.

First lady Jill Biden will travel to North Carolina this morning to speak at 10 a.m. at Forsyth Technical Community College in Winston-Salem. She will fly to Raleigh to speak in the afternoon at a campaign fundraiser. The first lady will head to Columbia, S.C., to headline an Educators for Biden campaign event and attend an Alpha Kappa Alpha sorority event. Tonight she will fly to Tampa, Fla., and remain overnight ahead of a weekend itinerary that includes fundraising events in Tampa and Houston on Saturday.

The White House daily press briefing is scheduled at 1 p.m.

ZOOM IN

© The Associated Press / Alex Brandon | President Biden spoke about the economy in  Superior, Wis., on Thursday.

ECONOMY 

Bidenreceived some favorable economic indicators Thursday, which he immediately wove into a speech in Superior, Wis., while boasting about infrastructure upgrades made possible between Wisconsin and Minnesota because of legislation he signed into law.

Biden and administration officials are trying to make the most of improving economic news ahead of the November election, aware that Republicans and many Americans blame the president for inflated prices, even as job growth and economic output have been robust and consumers are spending.

The government reported Thursday that the economy expanded over the past year, surpassing 3 percent and defying expectations of a recession.

Referring to a bridge receiving long-needed repairs and stretching between two key states ahead of November’s election, Biden said, “Things are finally starting to sink in.”

Republicans tell pollsters they see the economy in bleak terms, but Democrats in surveys are sounding more upbeat.

“We just lived through a natural experiment testing whether austerity or investment strengthens an economy through troubled times,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) told Punchbowl News. “Bigger investment won by a wide margin. Credit goes to Team Biden for figuring that out.” 

Democrats have argued for months that Americans need time to recognize and experience benefits from legislation enacted on Biden’s watch.

“This bridge is important, but the story we’re writing is much bigger than that,” Biden told an audience gathered at Earth Rider Brewery in Superior. “When you see shovels in the ground and cranes in the sky and people hard at work on these projects, I hope you feel a renewed sense of pride.”

▪ The New York Times: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Thursday told an audience that Biden’s economy has delivered gains.

▪ Pew Research Center: Currently, 44 percent of Democrats compared with 13 percent of Republicans have positive views of the economy, according to a new survey. About a quarter (26 percent) of Americans say they expect economic conditions to be better a year from now, up from 17 percent last April.

ELSEWHERE

INTERNATIONAL

ISRAELI OFFICIALS ARE BRACING for an expected Friday interim ruling from the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on South Africa’s allegation that the war in Gaza amounts to genocide against Palestinians. The emergency measure could expose Israel to international sanctions and order the country to stop its campaign in Gaza. ​​ICJ rulings are binding and cannot be appealed, although the court has no power to enforce them (The Guardian).

The Washington Post analysis: South Africa’s genocide case against Israel spotlights a global divide.

The U.S. has “reaffirmed” to Israel the need to protect civilians and civilian infrastructure in Gaza after the United Nations said multiple people were killed yesterday in a hit on one of its facilities, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Thursday. Blinken called the United Nations’ work in Gaza lifesaving and desperately needed in the conflict zone (NBC News).

“And no else can do it, no one else is doing it,” Blinken said. “And it only underscores the importance of making sure that its facilities — including facilities that it’s erected or are maintaining — that are housing the many, many, displaced Palestinians until they can go back to their homes … it has to be protected.”

▪ The Washington Post: The director of the CIA is expected to meet with officials from Israel, Egypt and Qatar to discuss a deal to secure the release of remaining hostages held by Hamas.

▪ The Wall Street Journal: Qatar said it was appalled by leaked comments from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu disparaging the country’s role as a mediator with Hamas. In a meeting with hostages’ families, Netanyahu reportedly said the Gulf state’s role as a broker with the militant group was “problematic.”

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un could take some form of lethal military action against South Korea in the coming months, U.S. officials warn, saying his recent harder line is part of a pattern of provocations, but has been more aggressive than previous statements and should be taken seriously. The officials add they did not see an imminent risk of a full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula, but Kim could carry out strikes in a way that he thinks would avoid rapid escalation (The New York Times).

▪ Politico: Washington will begin talks with Baghdad to end a U.S.-led international military coalition in Iraq while determining the best ways to strengthen relations, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced Thursday.

▪ The Washington Post: In Ukraine, Kharkiv’s air defense struggles to halt nonstop Russian missiles.

▪ Reuters: China presses Iran to rein in Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.

© The Associated Press / Yuki Iwamura | Former President Trump prepared to travel to court in New York City on Thursday.

TRUMP WORLD 

TRUMP TESTIFIED THURSDAY for three minutes at the New York City civil defamation trial brought by writer E. Jean Carroll. Trump’s “yes” or “no” to questions was allowed, but the judge told jurors to disregard the former president’s expanded commentary.

“This is not America, not America, this is not America,” Trump said as he was exiting the courtroom, although the jury had already left at that point. Trump’s testimony set up a critical moment in the case as he sought to stave off Carroll’s request for at least $10 million in damages for Trump’s denials that he sexually assaulted her in the mid-1990s.

For years, Trump has publicly attacked Carroll’s credibility and appearance in the court of public opinion, including recently at campaign rallies and in spates of Truth Social posts (The Hill).

TRUMP’S LEAD ATTORNEY in the Georgia election interference case accused Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis (D) of attempting to “foment racial animus” against Trump and his co-defendants to take focus off her alleged affair with a top prosecutor she appointed to the matter. The Thursday remark followed a motion to join a co-defendant’s bid to block Willis, special prosecutor Nathan Wade and the Fulton County district attorney’s office from involvement in the sprawling racketeering case — and for the charges to be dropped against him (The Hill).

Former Trump White House aide Peter Navarro, 74, on Thursday was sentenced to four months in prison for contempt of Congress for refusing to cooperate with a congressional inquiry about the Jan. 6, 2021, attack at the Capitol. An appeal is expected.

OPINION

■ The Fed fears being sucked under a Trump riptide, by John Authers, senior editor for markets and columnist, Bloomberg Opinion.

■ The tyranny of the Trumpian minority, by Alton Frye, opinion contributor, The Hill.

THE CLOSER

© The Associated Press / Mstyslav Chernov | Greenland in 2019.

And finally … 👏👏👏 Bravo to this week’s Morning Report Quiz winners! Readers played along with our quiz about U.S. territories and land expansions.

Here are the puzzlers who went 4/4 to enlarge their Friday fame: Patrick Kavanagh, Richard E. Baznik, Lynn Gardner, Harry Strulovici, Mary Anne McEnery, Pam Manges, Larry B. Cutlip, Jaina Mehta Buck, Lori Benso, Sharon Banitt, Damian Gaffney, Lou Tisler, Ki Harvey, Robert Bradley, Jerry LaCamera, Steve James and John Trombetti. 

They knew the U.S. spent $7.2 million to buy Alaska from Russia in 1867.

Early in his term, former President Trump wanted the U.S. to purchase Greenland from Denmark.

The biggest land buy-up in history was the Louisiana Purchase.

The U.S. currently administers five permanently inhabited territories.

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