The most important midterm elections to watch ahead of Election Day

Election Day is one week away and the 2022 midterm races are entering their final sprint.

Republicans hope that Americans’ frustration with inflation and the economy, as well as rising crime, will obfuscate their concerns about the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v Jackson Women's Health Organization decision overturning Roe v Wade.

Conversely, Democrats hope to make abortion a centrepiece of the election, but also hope to point “MAGA Republicans” as threats to democracy and highlight the January 6 insurrection.

Here are the most important elections to watch this cycle.

Nevada Senate

Republicans haven’t won a Senate race in the Silver State since 2012. President Joe Biden won the state by about the same margin Hillary Clinton did but his approval rating remains low in the state at 44 per cent, according to a CBS News/YouGov poll.

A New York Times/Siena College poll shows that Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, the first Latina Senator, is beating former attorney general Adam Laxalt by 0.4 percentage points, making it a virtual tie.

At the same time, polls have historically missed the mark in Nevada. Therefore, the best barometer to see who is ahead is early voting, which began this last weekend.

The Covid-19 pandemic devastated the state’s hospitality industry when plenty of Latinos are becoming more disillusioned with the Democratic Party. All of this makes Nevada the most likely Senate seat to flip.

Former president Donald Trump traveled to Nevada this month to shore up support for his preferred candidate. Ms Cortez Masto for her part has criticised Mr Laxalt for promoting the big lie that the 2020 presidential election was stolen. Meanwhile, former president Barack Obama, who won the state in 2008 and 2012 by wide margins, will head to Las Vegas this week to stump for Ms Cortez Masto.

Pennsylvania Senate

The race to replace retiring Senator Pat Toomey has easily become the ugliest and most intensely personal race of the 2022 midterm cycle. Last week, Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman squared off against Republican nominee and former television physician Mehmet Oz in their sole debate.

Mr Fetterman, who had a stroke in May before the primary, had to use closed captioning to assist with auditory processing, which led to him at times having difficulty answering questions. Still, his campaign said he raised $2m in the 24 hours after the debate and releasing an ad hitting Dr Oz for saying “Abortion should be the business of a woman, her doctor, and her local political leaders.” An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted the day after the debate showed Dr Oz taking a lead.

But the Times/Siena College poll--which was conducted between 24 October and 26 October, one day after the debate--showed that Mr Fetterman had a five-point lead. On Saturday, Mr Trump will head to Latrobe to campaign for Dr Oz while Mr Obama will barnstorm the state in both Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.

Georgia Senate

The Georgia Senate race entered centre-stage this month afterThe Daily Beast reported that Republican nominee Herschel Walker reportedly paid for a woman’s abortion despite his vocal opposition to it on the campaign trail. The New York Times later corroborated the story and reported that Mr Walker pressured the same woman to have another abortion, which she refused. The Independent has reached out to the Walker campaign. During an interview with NBC News, Mr Walker acknowledged that he wrote the check but denied it was for an abortion. Last week, another woman came forward and alleged that Mr Walker drove her to have a

None of the bad press has deterred Republicans from supporting Mr Walker as he challenges Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock. The two squared off in only one debate this month, wherein Mr Walker accused Mr Warnock of being a rubber stamp for Mr Biden’s agenda. Meanwhile, Mr Warnock criticised Mr Walker, a former University of Georgia running back, of pretending to be a police officer, which led to Mr Walker flashing an honorary badge he received. Polling has been mixed, with an InsiderAdvantage/Fox 5 poll showing Mr Walker leading Mr Walker by three points but the Times/Siena College poll showing Mr Warnock leading by three points. If neither candidate wins a majority of the vote, the race will go into a runoff.

Arizona governor

Multiple polls show Arizona’s Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs trailing Republican nominee and former news anchor Kari Lake, with one InsiderAdvantage poll showing Ms Lake with a whopping 11-point lead. Ms Lake has robustly parroted Mr Trump’s lies about the 2020 presidential election being stolen, while Ms Hobbs became a target of threats as she oversaw the election.

In an interview with CNN this month, Ms Lake did not commit to accepting the election results, repeatedly saying “I’m going to win the election, and I will accept that result.”

But many Democrats worry Ms Hobbs has fumbled her chances to flip Arizona’s governorship after she refused to debate Ms Lake. The same Sunday as Ms Lake’s interview with CNN, host Dana Bash asked if Ms Hobbs supported any limits on abortion, which Ms Hobbs dodged. Polling shows the two are locked in a tight race. The race could determine whether a Republican like Ms Lake could defy the will of the people if the state votes for a Democrat and refuse to certify the election results in favor of a Republican.

Arizona Senate

Arizona’s Senate race is far less swingy, though still contested. Democratic Senator Mark Kelly leads Republican businessman Blake Masters, a protege of venture capitalist Peter Thiel, in most polls. The Times/Siena survey showed Mr Kelly with a six-point lead and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has been sparing with the money his Senate Leadership Fund has sent to defend a seat once held by John McCain and Barry Goldwater.

Mr Kelly has hit Mr Masters in their debate for also erasing parts of his website about the “big lie.” Mr Masters, for his part, has tried to tie Mr Kelly to Mr Biden, who, despite winning the state in 2020, is unpopular.

Mr Kelly has released an ad saying he supports closing gaps in the US-Mexico Border, saying he stands “up to the left when they want to defund the police, and I stand up to the right when they want a national abortion ban,” before adding, “when Joe Biden gets it wrong, I call him out.”

Florida and Texas governor

Republican incumbent Governors Ron DeSantis of Florida and Greg Abbott of Texas caused a nationwide stir as they sent immigrants and refugees to Democratic areas of the country as a means to criticise the Biden administration’s policies regarding the US-Mexico border. But despite criticism from Democrats, both men are in a strong position to win re-election. A strong performance by Mr DeSantis, who has become a right-wing hero after he kept the state mostly open during the Covid-19 pandemic, could position him well to run for president in a 2024 Republican primary.

While Democrat Beto O’Rouke repeatedly criticised Mr Abbott for his stances on guns and abortion in their debate and on the campaign trail, a Quinnipiac poll showed that Mr Abbott leads Mr O’Rourke by seven points in the poll and most voters rank the economy as the biggest issue followed by the Texas-Mexico border.

Meanwhile, Mr DeSantis and Charlie Crist, a former Republican governor-turned-Democratic congressman, debated last week. While Mr DeSantis holds a double-digit lead, he refused to answer a question from Mr Crist asking whether he would serve a full four-year term.

Wisconsin Senate

Wisconsin Democrats called in the big guns to salvage their chances to flip Wisconsin’s Senate race: Former president Barack Obama campaigned Milwaukee to stump for candidates for Senate, delivering a barn-burner of a speech hitting Mr Johnson for his support for cutting Social Security. Mr Barnes squared off in two debates this month Mr Barnes tried to paint Mr Johnson as an extremist for minimising the January 6 riot and trying to overturn the 2020 presidential election, as well as his position on abortion.

After initially leading in the race, Republicans have hammered Mr Barnes by saying he supports defunding the police, and CNN reported there is evidence he has supported at least moving police funding toward other areas. The Republican appears to have a slight advantage, as a CNN poll showed Mr Johnson beating Mr Barnes 50 to 49 per cent.